Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 Pre-Orders Above Expectations, iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand

[tentales]

Your first paragraph doesn’t make any sense to me, but in any case I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree. In the Android world, small phones are dead. In the Apple world, small phones are dead. I really don’t know what else to tell you.

But why worry about me? Apple’s the one you need to convince.

I'm saying, marketshare across years of iPhones that are no longer for sale don't make sense when comparing their validity then vs now.

I believe there *is* a market for "normal-sized" phones, but it doesn't fit into Apple's pricing scheme, not because they don't want to serve that market segment. Obviously, if I or others want a new iPhone, then the smallest size will be the 4.7" size of the iPhone 7 or 8 or equivalent in the "notch-series".

 

[blairh]

The fact you think one person agreeing with you is actually meaningful speaks volumes.

It’s been said, the plural of anecdote is not data. You could find 10 million people who agree with you, and compared to Apple’s 225-250million iPhones they sell, it wouldn’t be significant. That would still only be 4-4.5%.

btw we haven’t touched on how much app developers dislike still having to code for 4” devices as we’ve been focused on what the user wants.

It’s not one person. There are at least four or five of us in the world that believe this.

 

[robbyx]

There was a 6 month lag between the 6S flagship release and when the SE debut in April 2016. Google old reports from 2016 and you'll see how the SE was responsible for slowing an otherwise steep sales decline in iPhones then after the 2015 peak year. In some markets like the UK, it was the best selling smartphone overall.

Besides the physical size dimension, there are other aspects to dislike about the new designs, but I won't regurgitate them here again. If they don't bother you then I'm not here to tell you not to buy the eXceSs iPhone. It's just not for me.

I get that. Personally I plan on keeping my 7 Plus for another year. I see no reason to upgrade. Believe me, I appreciate the desire some people have for a smaller phone, for whatever reason. There are things I've been wanting Apple to make for decades, but just because I think it's a good idea, that doesn't mean it makes sense.

I still just don't believe that any of us expressing our personal opinions and preferences have any idea of what would or wouldn't sell. Yes, the SE lagged the 6S, but it was still current tech, not old and outdated or severely underpowered. It provided a nice bump in iPhone sales, but obviously that was not sustained. The fact that the SE straddled the 6S and 7 releases, yet still didn't make a dent, is all the proof I need that most iPhone customers don't want a smaller phone.

 

[jeremiah256]

Even if your 5% was true (provide a link), by your rationale that would mean Apple should stop making Macs, since revenue share is now well into single digits.

Slightly off topic, but many people suspect that as soon as Apple can get XCode to adequately run on an iPad, they will start phasing out the MacBook form factor of computers.

 

[redheeler]

Apple doesn’t price just on cost of components, they price based on value provided. And they definitely don’t price based on ppi. As disappointing as this might be to you, it’s a fact.

A lot of things must be taken into consideration when deciding when something is good value, and display quality is definitely one of them. Display quality has one of the most noticeable impacts on user experience, as anything you see when using the device is only as crisp or good as the display permits.

 

[Larryprice]

With those iPhone XS prices what did they expect.

Which is why the XS Max sales were so bad?

 

[tentales]

How long have you been an Apple customer? I ask this seriously because your comment about an SD card slot really shows how little you understand Apple. To Apple an SD card slot is a philosophical choice, not a cost-related one. Apple has always been about pushing the industry forward by not accepting the status quo. Before someone screams the tired old "Tim Cook's Greed!" refrain, I fully acknowledge that their design choices sometimes create new business opportunities for them. But that's not greed. That's progress. Apple wants high speed wireless networking everywhere and cloud storage, not brittle, fiddly SD cards. Just like they wanted us off the floppy disc and using more reliable CD media. And when the Internet became fast and widely available enough, they killed the CD too.

Anyway, the cult-like defense of Apple is nothing new. I've been a customer for 35 years. You either see and appreciate their vision, or you don't. Tim Cook's Apple is not Jobs's Apple, but it's still very much Apple. They would never put an SD card slot in an iPhone. Never. If you don't understand that, you don't really understand Apple.

My first experience with Apple goes back to the Apple II in 1982/3. I've had a long career in IT working with everything from Windows, UNIX to mainframes and proprietary OSs alongside Macs for more personal projects. I've never used Macs in my work environment because none of my employers ever considered them. I understand the industry from both engineering and sales & marketing perspective.

I just don't wear blinders like many of you undying love worshippers of a mega corporation.

 

[Glockworkorange]

A lot of things must be taken into consideration when deciding when something is good value, and display quality is definitely one of them. Display quality has one of the most noticeable impacts on user experience, as anything you see when using the device is only as crisp or good as the display permits.

PPI is not something the average consumer knows or cares about, at least not in my opinion.

I haven’t seen the Xr screen in person, but I am assuming it’s good enough for MOST people.

 

[robbyx]

Slightly off topic, but many people suspect that as soon as Apple can get XCode to adequately run on an iPad, they will start phasing out the MacBook form factor of computers.

I don't think that's true. The iPad will never be a good development machine. You need a real keyboard to develop. I think it's much more likely that we'll see an iOS laptop with keyboard and trackpad support that looks a lot like MacOS. I think MacOS's days are numbered, but I don't think that's true for MacOS's UI. There will be desktop and portable iOS machines that look like today's MacOS. That's what Marzipan is all about.
[doublepost=1537152011][/doublepost]

My first experience with Apple goes back to the Apple II in 1982/3. I've had a long career in IT working with everything from Windows, UNIX to mainframes and proprietary OSs alongside Macs for more personal projects. I've never used Macs in my work environment because none of my employers ever considered them. I understand the industry from both engineering and sales & marketing perspective. I've written millions of lines of C code and sold millions of $ of computing equipment to Fortune500 companies, working in Silicon Valley for a big data storage outfit before joining the telecom industry. Don't come here lecturing me about not understanding Apple or the industry.

I just don't wear blinders like many of you undying love worshippers of a mega corporation.

Ha. It's not about wearing blinders. Like I said, the SD card is a philosophical choice. You either get that or you don't. You clearly don't. I'm not lecturing you. I'm pointing out the obvious. Apple would never put something like an SD card slot in an iPhone. The fact that you even bring up the idea just tells me how little you understand the company and its design and user-experience philosophy. I don't care where you've worked or what languages you program in. You don't get Apple if you think you'd ever stick an SD card slot in an iPhone.

 

[Kmart9419]

I can´t believe that the SX MAX don´t have the “Face ID” available in landscape mode!
We know that, for many reasons, we have the device in landscape mode (7/8 Plus) to see several kinds of Apps like Youtube, etc. So, when some App locks, should we put it vertical position to unlock and back again to previous position?!

I have my X mounted on my car dash in landscape for gps. If the phone gets locked for whatever reason, unlocking becomes impossible while driving. Irritating.

 

[DakotaGuy]

The only thing that's starting to get more annoying than the overuse of the term "form factor" on these forums is the continual discussion of the SE by a few people that can't get over the fact it's discontinued. The SE is dead and it's not coming back.

The iPhone 7 will serve as the economy model this year. Next year the 7 will be gone and the iPhone 8 will be the last remaining legacy touch ID model as the economy model. After that... Maybe... just maybe you'll see an Xr design phone with a slightly smaller screen as the economy base model (5" + or - a little bit), but the 4" screen and the SE design is dead. It's gone for good. It's time to move on to the newer products.

 

[tentales]

I don't think that's true. The iPad will never be a good development machine. You need a real keyboard to develop. I think it's much more likely that we'll see an iOS laptop with keyboard and trackpad support that looks a lot like MacOS. I think MacOS's days are numbered, but I don't think that's true for MacOS's UI. There will be desktop and portable iOS machines that look like today's MacOS. That's what Marzipan is all about.
[doublepost=1537152011][/doublepost]

Ha. It's not about wearing blinders. Like I said, the SD card is a philosophical choice. You either get that or you don't. You clearly don't. I'm not lecturing you. I'm pointing out the obvious.

It's an economic choice masquerading as a philosophical one.

 

[nviz22]

No surprise the XS will be easy to obtain around launch. Considering it's $250 USD + tax more over the XR? That's a huge difference. Could use that $ to invest in short-term assets/long-term assets, use the $ for a family experience like a MLB game or NHL game, etc.

 

[robbyx]

It's an economic choice masquerading as a philosophical one.

No it's not. There's no evidence for that. There's plenty of historical evidence, however, for it being a philosophical choice. Like I said, if you really knew and understood the company, you wouldn't even suggest something as ridiculous as an SD card slot in an iPhone.

 

[blairh]

The only thing that's starting to get more annoying than the overuse of the term "form factor" on these forums is the continual discussion of the SE by a few people that can't get over the fact it's discontinued. The SE is dead and it's not coming back.

The iPhone 7 will serve as the economy model this year. Next year the 7 will be gone and the iPhone 8 will be the last remaining legacy touch ID model as the economy model. After that... Maybe... just maybe you'll see an Xr design phone with a slightly smaller screen as the economy base model (5" + or - a little bit), but the 4" screen and the SE design is dead. It's gone for good. It's time to move on to the newer products.

Nobody said anything about the SE design or a 4” screen. I agree, a smaller XR is coming in the 5” range.

 

[tentales]

Slightly off topic, but many people suspect that as soon as Apple can get XCode to adequately run on an iPad, they will start phasing out the MacBook form factor of computers.

Well as so often, criticize Apple for anything and the zealots come out in force.
Yes, the MacBook days are numbered, although not the Mac in general. I believe the iMac and the Pro will be around for a while yet.

 

[wallysb01]

My point was just that I'm happy because Apple has been a good investment for me and if making a smaller phone makes them (and me) more money, I'm more happy. Why are you so fixated on my investment? Jealous much? Maybe you wish you'd bought a bunch of Apple stock several decades ago too?

You're confused and being sloppy. I wasn't wondering why you brought up the fact that you're a share holder and that because of that you want apple to do well. I'm wondering why you think your earnings on Apple are relevant? The only reason to bring that up is to stroke your ego. And the bolded statement proves that mentality. You're trying to raise your opinion above that of others because of these irrelevant personal facts (if we take you at your word, of course) and clearly you're all primed up to throw out ridicules, like the bolded statement (well question that's not actually a question), when anyone tells you that your personal finances mean jack diddly to this discussion.

Were you reading your own post?

OK, you got me.... In all seriousness, you went on a straight diatribe. I mean, really, people that might complain that they have no good smallish iPhone option have never coded anything in their life. I live in the bay area. Myself and these guys I work with do this coding thing. You know what one of the most popular phones among them are? The SE or even the 5S. It really seems to go one way or the other, SE/5S or the X. Its either latest and greatest or its got to be the phone that fits them.

Appeal to authority fallacy? Yawn.

Darn you YouTube, don't let robby out of his cage!

I love that random folks online think they know better than Apple. It's hilarious.

Yep. Appeal to authority.

Even more hilarious is when they try to show us how smart they are with analogies and points that make no sense. Apple offered a smaller phone for years. I don't think there's any evidence to suggest that a significant number of consumers want a smaller flagship phone.

Straw man. The point is not a smaller flagship, its a smaller but up-to-date option. Dumb it down some, fine, an XR-mini as it might be called. Its smaller, that means you can fit all the same bells and whistles, we get it. But smaller doesn't have to equal old either.

Got any surveys? Anything other than personal opinions?

And what do you have? As of yet, the only argument you have the finger you're pointing to Cupertino.

Look at the iPhone mix that someone else posted a little while ago. The SE accounts of less than 5% of iPhone users.

And its a 2.5 year old phone that was using half year old tech (generally, the 6s, but in some spots actually less than that) and old styling all with an awkward release date. It was a self-fullfilling prophecy. The only people that currently have that phone are people that are either very budget conscious or prioritize size above all else. Never was it given a chance to thrive as an option for people that weight size in combination with the host of other factors.

 

[redheeler]

PPI is not something the average consumer knows or cares about, at least not in my opinion.

True, but that doesn't mean 326 PPI has no impact on user experience or value. Just as the average user probably has no idea what 5400 RPM means, or how slow their newly-purchased $1,299 iMac is if they don't have a Mac with an SSD to compare it to.

 

[definitive]

wonder if they'll discontinue xs and xs max next year after they release "iphone 11", and release xrs and 2017 x for lower cost models.

 

[PickUrPoison]

Sorry, I was looking at quarters. $1B is still a hell of a lot of profit to leave on the table just because, hey, we make a lot anyway. As if more is bad somehow? But what makes you think $100 in profit is wrong? Estimates were around 30-35% at releases. Its a $400 or $500 phone. $100 was a low end estimate.

Well it’s a $350 phone, and your 30-35% figure references gross margin, which only includes cost of components, assembly and certain expenses directly related to manufacturing. Notably it does not include selling expenses, general operating expenses and R&D costs. Or taxes.

After all those expenses are taken into account, Apple nets about 22% of selling price (most recent quarter). That’s an average, and there’s compression at the low end. So expensive products in the iPhone lineup like the XS will contribute more than the average, maybe 30%. But for a low priced product like the SE it might be 10-15%, or even lower.

Looking at the income statement shows what happens to revenue as it progressed to the bottom line.

(Keep in mind I’m not an accountant; there are some in the forum so pls correct my understanding as needed!)

 

[bluespark]

Completely unsurprised by the lack of demand for the iPhone XS. It is a marginal upgrade, not worth spending another 1000.

Completely agree. There are good arguments for getting the Xr or even the Xs Max, but the Xs seems nearly the same as the X and therefore not worth the money this time around.

For my part, Apple lost me altogether this year. The Xr loses too much of what similarly-priced iPhones would have had in prior years (the dual camera in particular) and the Xs Max is stupidly expensive. I was ready to pull the trigger on the Max at $1000 but am passing at the price Apple ended up with.

 

[Glideslope]

My first experience with Apple goes back to the Apple II in 1982/3. I've had a long career in IT working with everything from Windows, UNIX to mainframes and proprietary OSs alongside Macs for more personal projects. I've never used Macs in my work environment because none of my employers ever considered them. I understand the industry from both engineering and sales & marketing perspective. I've written millions of lines of C code and sold millions of $ of computing equipment to Fortune500 companies, working in Silicon Valley for a big data storage outfit before joining the telecom industry. Don't come here lecturing me about not understanding Apple or the industry.

I just don't wear blinders like many of you undying love worshippers of a mega corporation.

More like Growing Cult Worshipers than Mega Corporation Lovers.

 

[mrow]

I upgrade every year. Ordered the XS and expecting it on Friday. My daughter will get my X, and I will sell her 7+ (which was mine two years ago).

Been using this strategy for years.

I’ve also owned every watch. Daughter will get my Series 3, and her Series 2 goes to the good friend who bought my original Apple Watch. I’m going to keep the original. Doubt I would get much money on it, and I’ve always regretted not keeping my original iPhone. Or the iPhone 4... I loved that design!

I decided to keep my first gen iPhone, first gen iPad, and first gen Watch. I just pulled the iPad out the other day to see if it still worked. It had been sitting in a closet with a dead battery for a few years. I charged it up overnight and unplugged it. I played with it a little bit a couple nights but mostly let it just sit unplugged connected to WiFi. I couldn’t believe that it is still getting the almost 30 day standby time it had when it launched. This battery is almost 9 years old at this point. Pretty incredible.

 

[Hater]

I guess that says a lot about what the average persons thinks of 3D Touch

 

[tentales]

More like Growing Cult Worshipers than Mega Corporation Lovers.

Is there a difference ?

 

[Glideslope]

wonder if they'll discontinue xs and xs max next year after they release "iphone 11", and release xrs and 2017 x for lower cost models.

No iPhone 11. Next September Apple moves to:
September 2019 iPhone 5.8"
September 2019 iPhone 6.1"
September 2019 iPhone 6.5"

This will line up with iPad, iMac, MBA, MB, MBP, MP.
[doublepost=1537153445][/doublepost]

Is there a difference ?

IMO, yes. One is being led off the end of a pier by a flute player. The other seeks status, and self worth through material means.