Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 Pre-Orders Above Expectations, iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand

[manu chao]

90% of my circle upgrades once a year. Some switch back and forth with Samsung. Some own both. That is not a good link to support the previous opinion.

An estimated 90% of people posting here don't upgrade every year. And people posting here are the tech nerds most likely to upgrade yearly.

And my opinion is a widely shared one. Everybody in the tech media talking about iPhones always underlines that the vast majority of people don't upgrade every year. And I am sure that there statements from Apple and user surveys out there that support that as well.

 

[ftaok]

Yep. Miss the big screen. Wish they had the iPad mini but that is going away it seems.
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Except he is more right than wrong.

His insider contacts are pretty much all in the supply chain. His value to the rumor industry is finding out what hardware is being developed for sale a year from now. His expertise is generally not strong when it comes to sales and unit distribution.

 

[Hari Om Keshav]

What a clueless, or outright misleading statement. If the Xs Max is having lackluster sales, why have delivery dates been pushed as far back as 3 weeks.

It is still avilable for store pickup on 21 sept.... if you book it. Was it the same case with older iPhones
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Where is your data showing Xs Max is showing lackluster performance?

It is still avilable for store pickup on 21st sept in more than 60 % location of california. Plz check

 

[Baymowe335]

It is still avilable for store pickup on 21 sept.... if you book it. Was it the same case with older iPhones
[doublepost=1537293845][/doublepost]
It is still avilable for store pickup on 21st sept in more than 60 % location of california. Plz check

How do you know what their current supply of the phone is relative to last year?

Would you think it's more or less than the original iPhone X that had supply chain constraints for FaceID?

 

[cmaier]

It is still avilable for store pickup on 21 sept.... if you book it. Was it the same case with older iPhones
[doublepost=1537293845][/doublepost]
It is still avilable for store pickup on 21st sept in more than 60 % location of california. Plz check

For what little it’s worth, in store pickup on release day was actually available in most places in the Bay Area for the iPhone X.

 

[Shanghaichica]

How do you know what their current supply of the phone is relative to last year?

Would you think it's more or less than the original iPhone X that had supply chain constraints for FaceID?

They have two suppliers for oled screens now so I’d say they can make more. Also I think they’ve learned from previous years when they underestimated demand for the plus models.

 

[Baymowe335]

They have two suppliers for oled screens now so I’d say they can make more. Also I think they’ve learned from previous years when they underestimated demand for the plus models.

That's probably precisely what's going on.

They know Plus models will be in higher demand because an X in the 6.5" form factor has never existed.

As you said, they have multiple suppliers for panels and a whole year of FaceID manufacturing experience.

No supply shortages this year in all likelihood.

 

[ftaok]

It is reasonable expect an "s" model to more available at launch. They've had over a year to optimize the process, especially since it's not that big an upgrade, hardware wise.

 

[dannys1]

You can call it too big and massive but people want larger phones.

People can have their silly big phones, i'm fine with that - so long as Apple doesn't bork the normal sized phone in the process. I'm totally happy with the Xs and Xs Max as they're identical and you just chose screen size. I was very annoyed that for years the Plus size phone always had a feature the normal size didn't - to the point that I bought a 7 Plus just so I could have the dual lens and it was the worse iPhone I ever owned, I hated it. Big, heavy, ugly, unwieldily to hold and use, the only good thing about it was that it made me appreciate the X a hundred times more when I got it.

 

[EightyTwenty]

Yes in retrospect.

No one said that during the preorder.

Go back and check for yourself.




How much many units did the iPhone 7 sell again?

Seriously though every year, every launch, nothing changes.

You know all can be true, right? The 7 may have been the lamest upgrade at the time, then the 8 and now the XS.

Look at the stats. Progress regarding raw horsepower is coming to a screeching halt.

If the 5s was only a 15% improvement on the 5, people would have rightly called it lame. Instead, it was a staggering improvement on the order of 200% faster if I recall correctly.

Quite a plunge to go from year-over-year improvements of 200% to a measly, impotent 15%.

 

[FFR]

You know all can be true, right? The 7 may have been the lamest upgrade at the time, then the 8 and now the XS.

Look at the stats. Progress regarding raw horsepower is coming to a screeching halt.

If the 5s was only a 15% improvement on the 5, people would have rightly called it lame. Instead, it was a staggering improvement on the order of 300% faster if I recall correctly.

Quite a plunge to go from year-over-year improvements of 300% to a measly, impotent 15%.

Don’t know about that.
The 7 sold really well so probably can’t be referred to as lame or inept.

Perhaps the xs/xs max will do just as well, or better.

What does the 300% represent?
And the 15%?

Can’t claim performance took a plunge without knowing the metrics involved.

 

[Shanghaichica]

You know all can be true, right? The 7 may have been the lamest upgrade at the time, then the 8 and now the XS.

Look at the stats. Progress regarding raw horsepower is coming to a screeching halt.

If the 5s was only a 15% improvement on the 5, people would have rightly called it lame. Instead, it was a staggering improvement on the order of 200% faster if I recall correctly.

Quite a plunge to go from year-over-year improvements of 200% to a measly, impotent 15%.

The 7 plus was a decent upgrade, water resistance, stereo speakers, dual camera, improved screen.

I’m trying to decide which one has been the weakest upgrade the X to the Xs or the 6 to 6s.

 

[aforty]

If you can elaborate:

• What functions on the new phone makes you want to upgrade?
• How do you expect to carry the phone? Pocket? Inner jacket?

I am sincerely interested.

Just the size. I would have bought the Plus size last year had it been available. I plan on carrying it in my pant pockets.

 

[Bacillus]

Do you have some evidence that Indians prefer smaller phones? I’m asking that seriously.

SE is the device that Apple started producing there locally in an attempt to improve flawed mkt share and I suppose that’s considerate

 

[Aftermath747]

The 7 plus was a decent upgrade, water resistance, stereo speakers, dual camera, improved screen.

I’m trying to decide which one has been the weakest upgrade the X to the Xs or the 6 to 6s.

6 to 6s a weak upgrade? Are you kidding? The 6s was the first “s” upgrade I made due to the serious performance deficiencies of the 6. The 1 GB of RAM was never enough and doubling it in the 6s made a night and day difference.

 

[Shanghaichica]

6 to 6s a weak upgrade? Are you kidding? The 6s was the first “s” upgrade I made due to the serious performance deficiencies of the 6. The 1 GB of RAM was never enough and doubling it in the 6s made a night and day difference.

Yes it was but on paper it didn’t sound like much.

I still did it anyway.

 

[I7guy]

The 7 plus was a decent upgrade, water resistance, stereo speakers, dual camera, improved screen.

I’m trying to decide which one has been the weakest upgrade the X to the Xs or the 6 to 6s.

6 to 6s was a blazing upgrade in every way. On paper, imo, x to Xs sounds just as blazing. The upgrade you want will be the iPhone XI.

 

[Bawstun]

Market share has never been apple’s goal, or they’d make throw away flip phones like Samsung still does.

It should be of major concern. Phone players only remain on top for so long. Nokia, Motorola, BlackBerry, there are many examples throughout history of the rise and fall of the “smartphone giant”

all it takes is one innovation, one design to really catch the consumer’s attention, and then it’s a slow 5-15 year fade into obscurity. Apple is so large it thinks this could never happen, but it very much can happen...

 

[ftaok]

It should be of major concern. Phone players only remain on top for so long. Nokia, Motorola, BlackBerry, there are many examples throughout history of the rise and fall of the “smartphone giant”

all it takes is one innovation, one design to really catch the consumer’s attention, and then it’s a slow 5-15 year fade into obscurity. Apple is so large it thinks this could never happen, but it very much can happen...

Obviously all companies are vulnerable. In this case, Apple has proven to be able to disrupt their own businesses in order to focus on the next thing.

Macs used to be the money maker for Apple. Then the iPod took off and they stopped focusing as much on the Mac. They knew the iPod would be a bigger business. They developed services like the iTunes Music Store for the iPod.

Then they killed the iPod business in favor of the iPhone. They put all of the features of the iPod into the iPhone. 95% of iPod users no longer needed an iPod. Apple saw the future and skated to the puck.

So whatever the next big thing is, I don't think Apple would think twice to cannibalize the iPhone market in favor of the next big one.

The other companies you mentioned above didn't have a culture that included killing off businesses that were their dominant thing. Look at Motorola in particular (I'm quite knowledgable about MOT as I've been an unlucky shareholder since forever). They dominated cell phones in the analog days. When digital was coming around, their internal divisions fought for power and they made their bet on analog. When digital became the obvious choice, they were late to market by 2 years. They never recovered. Horrible leadership and horrible culture.

Blackberry also had a similar fall from grace. Their money maker was their email servers and business clients. When the iPhone and Androids came on the scene, they thought their moat would protect them. They didn't embrace the "full web" experience nor did they embrace the inevitability of apps. Now look at them. Business customers didn't want to carry two devices. They lobbied their IT departments to allow iOS and Android to hook into their email servers. That was it for BB.

Nokia's a little harder to figure out. They should have been able to compete. They completely dominated mobile phones between mid-90s until iPhone/Android came into their own. They were a little slow to embrace the mobileOS model that we know today, but they were in the game with Symbian. Not sure why Symbian wasn't further developed, but when Nokia realized that they were in trouble, they took the wrong gamble with Windows. They really could have leveraged their top notch design and dominant brand to market a skinned Android, but I guess they didn't want to be just another Android vendor.

Anyway, Apple has a history of being able to skate to the puck. They should be fine for the next 20 years.

 

[FFR]

Obviously all companies are vulnerable. In this case, Apple has proven to be able to disrupt their own businesses in order to focus on the next thing.

Macs used to be the money maker for Apple. Then the iPod took off and they stopped focusing as much on the Mac. They knew the iPod would be a bigger business. They developed services like the iTunes Music Store for the iPod.

Then they killed the iPod business in favor of the iPhone. They put all of the features of the iPod into the iPhone. 95% of iPod users no longer needed an iPod. Apple saw the future and skated to the puck.

So whatever the next big thing is, I don't think Apple would think twice to cannibalize the iPhone market in favor of the next big one.

The other companies you mentioned above didn't have a culture that included killing off businesses that were their dominant thing. Look at Motorola in particular (I'm quite knowledgable about MOT as I've been an unlucky shareholder since forever). They dominated cell phones in the analog days. When digital was coming around, their internal divisions fought for power and they made their bet on analog. When digital became the obvious choice, they were late to market by 2 years. They never recovered. Horrible leadership and horrible culture.

Blackberry also had a similar fall from grace. Their money maker was their email servers and business clients. When the iPhone and Androids came on the scene, they thought their moat would protect them. They didn't embrace the "full web" experience nor did they embrace the inevitability of apps. Now look at them. Business customers didn't want to carry two devices. They lobbied their IT departments to allow iOS and Android to hook into their email servers. That was it for BB.

Nokia's a little harder to figure out. They should have been able to compete. They completely dominated mobile phones between mid-90s until iPhone/Android came into their own. They were a little slow to embrace the mobileOS model that we know today, but they were in the game with Symbian. Not sure why Symbian wasn't further developed, but when Nokia realized that they were in trouble, they took the wrong gamble with Windows. They really could have leveraged their top notch design and dominant brand to market a skinned Android, but I guess they didn't want to be just another Android vendor.

Anyway, Apple has a history of being able to skate to the puck. They should be fine for the next 20 years.

Sorry but it was much more simple than that.

When Apple introduced the iphone and iPhone Os (remember that) they had a roadmap for going 64bit, it was a 6 year plan.

That killed everything else on the market.

Nokia’s Symbian and bb os were both based on Rtos, while Apple used a Unix kernel.

This forced the competition to look for an alternative, but because of the introduction of 64bit, with the a7 Apple killed the competitions alternative. It was surgical and precise both with implementation and timing.

Jobs famoua like about going thermonuclear, was said to have been about lawsuits, I believe that to be false, it was about going 64 bit in a mobile device.

Microsoft and google both pivoted to 64 bit,
Microsoft failed and android succeeded.

The rest is history.

 

[ftaok]

Sorry but it was much more simple than that.

When Apple introduced the iphone and iPhone Os (remember that) they had a roadmap for going 64bit, it was a 6 year plan.

That killed everything else on the market.

Nokia’s Symbian and bb os were both based on Rtos, while Apple used a Unix kernel.

This forced the competition to look for an alternative, but because of the introduction of 64bit, with the a7 Apple killed the competitions alternative. It was surgical and precise both with implementation and timing.

Jobs famoua like about going thermonuclear, was said to have been about lawsuits, I believe that to be false, it was about going 64 bit in a mobile device.

Microsoft and google both pivoted to 64 bit,
Microsoft failed and android succeeded.

The rest is history.

Interesting. I'm not a computer science guy, so can you dumb it down a little more for me?

Was it impossible for Symbian to move to 64-bit? Did Nokia make an effort to transition their in-house stuff to 64-bit before teaming up with Microsoft?

In regards to Apple, when the next seismic shift occurs, will Apple be in position to lead that transition, or will they be caught in the wake? What could that next transition point be? Lots of talk about A.I. and Machine Learning, but I'm not totally convinced. I'd like to hear some thoughts and some more conversation about this.

Thanks!

 

[Lloydbm41]

Interesting. I'm not a computer science guy, so can you dumb it down a little more for me?

Was it impossible for Symbian to move to 64-bit? Did Nokia make an effort to transition their in-house stuff to 64-bit before teaming up with Microsoft?

In regards to Apple, when the next seismic shift occurs, will Apple be in position to lead that transition, or will they be caught in the wake? What could that next transition point be? Lots of talk about A.I. and Machine Learning, but I'm not totally convinced. I'd like to hear some thoughts and some more conversation about this.

Thanks!

Apple will never be lost or caught off guard. Why? Because they have so much money to throw at a problem, they can simply say they were waiting to perfect the tech (whatever that tech may be, a la under-screen fingerprint scanning). Apple also has its fingers in just about every tech pot there is, so that they can pivot as needed. Auto-driving cars, VR/AR, foldable/bendable screens... hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple has something to do with space tourism at this point.

But, this doesn't mean they will be the best at what they end up doing. Apple still lags way behind mapping from Google and Apple still lags way, way behind the self-driving cars initiative. I doubt Apple will ever lead the way in these arenas.

BTW, Nokia may have been beaten in the phone business, but they are leaders in tech around the world. The sheer amount of Nobel Prize winners working for them is pretty amazing. You would be surprised at how much Nokia is behind the scenes of so many networks and tech leading into 5G.

 

[ValO]

Apple is not targeting India for sure with XR. XR 64 GB costs very close to Note 9 512 GB with bigger, better screen and with bigger RAM etc....India is NOT at all a market for Apple as far as iPhones are concerned.

Perhaps it is not such a big market as china, but it still influenced the size of the mainstream new iPhone . Comparing prices is nice but you can get an even cheaper big phone than the note 9, in all markets, so that is not the biggest selling point. Price/specs comparisons are nice, but apple will never win in this price/spec comparison in none of the markets.

 

[Soccertess]

The watch is already the best selling wearable, they would rather use it as a selling point for their phones than sell more watches.

The problem is that Andriod powers the world. Unless you live in USA or japan, Andriod dominates. And the usefulness of the Apple Watch decreases the more pixel and Samsung’s market share Rises. And if you use google now, you would know that Siri is the real joke.

I would sure love it if my friend who all use andriod could use it, and use the walkie talkie function. FaceTime was suppose to be open source before the patent Issues.

Whatsapp dominates the world, and I use iMessages/FaceTime less and less because everyone has whatsapp. sucks that Apple is closing it self off to the majority of the world

 

[FFR]

Interesting. I'm not a computer science guy, so can you dumb it down a little more for me?

Was it impossible for Symbian to move to 64-bit? Did Nokia make an effort to transition their in-house stuff to 64-bit before teaming up with Microsoft?

In regards to Apple, when the next seismic shift occurs, will Apple be in position to lead that transition, or will they be caught in the wake? What could that next transition point be? Lots of talk about A.I. and Machine Learning, but I'm not totally convinced. I'd like to hear some thoughts and some more conversation about this.

Thanks!

Sure start an new thread we can discuss it there.