Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 Pre-Orders Above Expectations, iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand

[robbyx]

Man, you've got some serious amnesia that has blocked out the dark times in Apple.

Ha. I don't know. Even in those dark times they still did some interesting work. Maybe it wasn't all successful, but I still think they've been a primary, if not the primary, thought leader even when things were bad. But you're right. There were dark times indeed. I missed a lot of those dark years because I was using NeXT computers. I guess I should amend my statement to say that Jobs was ahead of the competition since 1976. Apple still has some of that momentum, but like many here, I fear that it is slowing significantly.

Right. Apple has changed. At worst, you might be able to describe much of their product line up as being guided by a combination complacency (the Macs in particular) and needless change for change sake. They are no longer true innovators. Like this EKG 'innovation' they touted, did they completely forget about a device that's been selling for years that uses Apple own platform: https://store.alivecor.com/products/kardiaband.

True, but Kardiaband is a third party accessory, not a built-in feature. It's impressive that they were able to bring ECG functionality to the Watch but, like you, I don't find it extremely innovative. Or necessary. Healthy people don't need to take regular ECGs. The ECG functionality is extremely limited compared to a regular ECG at a doctor's office. If you're really worried about your heart, it would be cheaper (and smarter!) to schedule a doctor's visit and pay for that instead of buying a Watch. But Apple's Watch presentation was quite an effective fear-based sales pitch. It's obvious that they are targeting older consumers with the combination of fall detection and ECG functionality.

The thing is, I don't see anyone else doing much that's innovative either these days. "Innovate" has become the most overused and meaningless word in tech. Every little incremental feature is an innovation these days! When I look at other platforms, I don't see anything that gets me excited enough to switch. The most truly innovative and impressive thing I've seen in years was Google's Assistant demo. But when I look at Google's phone offerings, or any other Android device, I don't see anything special compared to the iPhone. In my mind we're very much on a plateau these days. No one has figured out the next big thing yet.
[doublepost=1537217235][/doublepost]

You must not be old enough to remember the 80’s!

Oh, I am! And while Apple certainly wasn't out in front of the competition in terms of sales, they definitely were ahead of the competition in terms of product offerings. Are you really going to tell me that the DOS command line was better than the Mac? So yeah, if we're talking financial health, they've only been out ahead of the competition for a little while now. But if we're talking product offerings and innovation, I think they've pretty much always been in front.

 

[Candlelight]

The Xs is virtually the same phone as the X with minor upgrades, hardly worth it.

Plus Apple shot themselves in the foot by having the Xr virtually identically to the Xs with a few minor downgrades, but at a considerable cost saving.

I don't see the Xs becoming a big earner for them.

 

[wallysb01]

Nope, not surprising at all. It all makes sense.

I expect 7 to outsell 7 Plus this year just because it’s the least expensive, but of course some want the smallest phone they can get and buy it for that reason. But like the SE, a large percentage of sales are due to the price, and not necessarily a preference for a smaller device.

Right, the 7 will probably soak up the 6s/SE market of about ~15% of sales, maybe it expands that range slightly even. The 7+ takes the 6s+ spot.

However, if you look at 2017 pooling all plus and non-plus models, you had about 35% plus version sales. In 2018, its not immediately clear to me that edged much higher. 8+ had maybe 23-25%, 7+ maybe 10%, 6s+ like 2%? If people shifted to bigger phones, it was a very small marginal gain. This year many people will essentially be forced to go to a big phone with the only 'new' <$1000 phone being the big XR. This might be obvious, but I'd bet on a increase in 7/8 sales relative to the 7+/8+ sales versus what we saw in the previous 12 months.

 

[Lloydbm41]

Oh, I am! And while Apple certainly wasn't out in front of the competition in terms of sales, they definitely were ahead of the competition in terms of product offerings. Are you really going to tell me that the DOS command line was better than the Mac? So yeah, if we're talking financial health, they've only been out ahead of the competition for a little while now. But if we're talking product offerings and innovation, I think they've pretty much always been in front.

I give you 3 exhibits from the 80's for your consideration: the Apple III, the Lisa and the Newton. The Apple III had chips that popped out of their sockets and the motherboard was an oven that caused crashing every few minutes. The Lisa required a doctorates degree in astrophysics to use. Not user friendly by any stretch of the imagination. I don't care what it packed inside of it, if the average person couldn't use it, so it was useless and not worth the price. The Newton is so famously bad, I don't feel the need to even bring it up. I was going to mention the Mac Portable, but I'll skip that one.

 

[JungleNYC]

Coming from an 8 the Xs is a good upgrade. Coming from an X not so much.

 

[robbyx]

I give you 3 exhibits from the 80's for your consideration: the Apple III, the Lisa and the Newton. The Apple III had chips that popped out of their sockets and the motherboard was an oven that caused crashing every few minutes. The Lisa required a doctorates degree in astrophysics to use. Not user friendly by any stretch of the imagination. I don't care what it packed inside of it, if the average person couldn't use it, so it was useless and not worth the price. The Newton is so famously bad, I don't feel the need to even bring it up. I was going to mention the Mac Portable, but I'll skip that one.

I guess it’s a matter of perspective. No argument that the III was a disaster. I never used a Lisa but, complex or not, it represented a new direction for computing. Apple pioneered the GUI. They may not have invented it but they made it a reality. And the Lisa represents a step in that direction. So I still think they were out ahead, innovation-wise, despite the flaws.

I also think you’re being harsh on the Newton. It was a very ambitious device and some of the tech was very impressive. But overall, yes, it was a failure. However, like the Lisa, it was far more ambitious and, in hindsight, revolutionary than anything else on the market at that time.

I actually had a Mac portable for a while. It was ridiculous. But they knocked it out of the park with the PowerBook two years later.

 

[PickUrPoison]

Right, the 7 will probably soak up the 6s/SE market of about ~15% of sales, maybe it expands that range slightly even. The 7+ takes the 6s+ spot.

However, if you look at 2017 pooling all plus and non-plus models, you had about 35% plus version sales. In 2018, its not immediately clear to me that edged much higher. 8+ had maybe 23-25%, 7+ maybe 10%, 6s+ like 2%? If people shifted to bigger phones, it was a very small marginal gain. This year many people will essentially be forced to go to a big phone with the only 'new' <$1000 phone being the big XR. This might be obvious, but I'd bet on a increase in 7/8 sales relative to the 7+/8+ sales versus what we saw in the previous 12 months.

The shift to bigger phones for the 2017 model year was really with the X. For 2018 it’ll be driven by the even larger XR.

But I think the 8 Plus will be the big loser. I just don’t see it getting a lot of interest, being basically at the same price as the XR.

 

[techwhiz]

Really? I think it is the best one to get.

Interms of bang for the buck, the XR is the best value proposition.
You get the internals of the XS/XS max (single camera though).
The screen may not be OLED, but it's larger than the XS.
The big value is the price is $250 cheaper that the other two.
The XR comes in more colors.

So a 256GB XR costs $899 and a 64GB XS costs $999 with 256GB it costs $1149.
I have an Essential PH-1 and the only phone that I see buying in the next year is another Essential, if they make and update (I said if). or an XR. The dual-SIM capability has me interested. I have a work iPhone and my personal Essential.
One phone with both numbers is appealing.

More than $1000 for a phone isn't going to happen if I'm paying.

 

[PickUrPoison]

The Xs is virtually the same phone as the X with minor upgrades, hardly worth it.

Plus Apple shot themselves in the foot by having the Xr virtually identically to the Xs with a few minor downgrades, but at a considerable cost saving.

I don't see the Xs becoming a big earner for them.

Apple hardly shot themselves in the foot with the XR. They are perfectly well aware just how much the XR will steal in sales, both from the XS and the Max, and they’re fine with that. It’s how they planned it when they chose the features they did to segment the market.

 

[techwhiz]

Can the human eye detect higher than 326PPI?

326PPI is the Retina display minimum.
The iPhone 4.5.6.7 and 8 all have 326PPI.
The iPhone 8 taken directly from Apple's website

• 1334-by-750-pixel resolution at 326 ppi

Only the Plus phones were higher at 401PPI.
The Xs and Xs Max are 458PPI

I think the iPhone 6s has a decent display. The Xr is supposed to be better.
[doublepost=1537225937][/doublepost]

I know 8 people with the X and none of them are interested in moving up to the XS and these guys used to upgrade every year for the past 8 years. Just speculation on my part but it seems as the iphones get more expensive chances more people's upgrade cycle will take longer.

Yes. But this cycle isn't for the X people unless they want a larger display.
This cycle is for the iPhone 6/7/8 people and maybe Android recruits.
Also if you want a dual-SIM phone that will work on most, if not all US carriers, then an iPhone is it.

 

[hellopupy]

Parents will be happy to get their kids the XR thinking its a steal compared to the XSmax prices

 

[techwhiz]

I give you 3 exhibits from the 80's for your consideration: the Apple III, the Lisa and the Newton. The Apple III had chips that popped out of their sockets and the motherboard was an oven that caused crashing every few minutes. The Lisa required a doctorates degree in astrophysics to use. Not user friendly by any stretch of the imagination. I don't care what it packed inside of it, if the average person couldn't use it, so it was useless and not worth the price. The Newton is so famously bad, I don't feel the need to even bring it up. I was going to mention the Mac Portable, but I'll skip that one.

Just to be clear I loved my Newton and was devastated when it was stolen and I could not replace it.
The only thing on the market was a crappy Compaq Aero or something like that. I had a MessagePad 100 then a 2100.
I think I still have the 100 in a closet.

 

[B4U]

In your opinion.

iPhone X was laughed, mocked and ridiculed for being overpriced. The market has spoken and it’s not.
We now know Apple sold 63million units in 10 months, totaling 63 billion dollars. Just the iPhone X, just the hardware.

It’s closest competitor the Galaxy s9/s9+/note 9 will only sell 40 million units in its lifetime between them. And no one claimed it was overpriced.

People have been calling Apple and Apple products over priced since the first Apple computer. Doesn’t make it true.

When the "replacement" of the SE which is a 4" "small" phone has to be compared to a S9, you know the argument is going nowhere.
If you are not trying to defend the argument of the XR is a replacement for SE, I am not even sure what are you trying to point out anymore.
[doublepost=1537228651][/doublepost]

So, what were the groundbreaking improvements of the 5s?

Touch ID alone is a huge change already.
Additionally, the change from 32bit to 64bit is another.

 

[cmaier]

So the Xs is not selling as hoped. Watch Best Buy and others offer $200-250 gift cards toward buying a Xs this Christmas. If so then I am in.

As hoped by who?

 

[Lloydbm41]

I guess it’s a matter of perspective. No argument that the III was a disaster. I never used a Lisa but, complex or not, it represented a new direction for computing. Apple pioneered the GUI. They may not have invented it but they made it a reality. And the Lisa represents a step in that direction. So I still think they were out ahead, innovation-wise, despite the flaws.

I also think you’re being harsh on the Newton. It was a very ambitious device and some of the tech was very impressive. But overall, yes, it was a failure. However, like the Lisa, it was far more ambitious and, in hindsight, revolutionary than anything else on the market at that time.

I actually had a Mac portable for a while. It was ridiculous. But they knocked it out of the park with the PowerBook two years later.

No argument that Apple pioneered many concepts that was brought to the masses, but I consider the 80's a failed decade for them. That was all because of the internal fighting going on between Sculley, the board, Woz and Jobs IMO. There was no clear direction for any of the departments, and it just got worse after Jobs was fired. In fact, there was zero innovation (again IMO) after 1986, until Jobs was brought back.

 

[theskog]

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has issued a research note today, obtained by MacRumors, outlining his opinions about first-weekend pre-orders for the iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and Apple Watch Series 4.

Kuo says Apple Watch Series 4 pre-orders have been "better than expected," as a result of new innovative functions, such as electrocardiogram support. He predicts Apple Watch shipments will reach 18 million units in 2018, with the Series 4 lineup accounting for 50 to 55 percent of those orders.

If the ECG support expands to more countries, Kuo believes the Series 4 lineup could see even stronger shipment momentum.

In contrast, Kuo says iPhone XS pre-orders are "lower-than-expected," as customers opt for the iPhone XS Max or wait for the iPhone XR. Kuo has lowered his forecast for iPhone XS orders, believing the model will account for only 10 to 15 percent of shipments of the new 2018 iPhones, down from 15 to 20 percent.

Kuo says iPhone XS Max pre-orders have been in line with expectations, signifying the success of Apple's high-pricing strategy:Kuo sees a positive outlook for the iPhone XR, available to pre-order October 19, given its lower pricing and dual-SIM support in China.

The well-known analyst increased his forecast for iPhone XR orders, estimating that the model will account for 55 to 60 percent of shipments of the new 2018 iPhones, up from 50 to 55 percent previously.

"We estimate the shipment peak of XS Max and XS will be in October and XR will start shipping and benefiting supply chain momentum in October," said Kuo.

iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and Apple Watch Series 4 pre-orders began Friday.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 Pre-Orders Above Expectations, iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand

This just in: Apple still doesn't give a flying **** about you STILL.

 

[cmaier]

I think you got it all wrong IMHO.

Tim Cook master of manipulating stocks and earning calls has perfectly lined up products such as Apple watch, a variety of iPhone Models from simple one variant, HomePod, iPad Pro, iPad 12 inch, iPad Mini, Air Pod etc...

He calibrates each quarter where there will be a dull sales of iPhones with these products....to fix the gap. This quarter he is reasonably confident of iPhone XS and XS Max sale(less volume growth but at higher margins), along with Apple Watch will ensure he can cross this quarter with flying colours.

He would announce, XR, later this quarter, and iPad next quarter and so on so forth...

He has pushed the customers and brought forward investors sentiments as the primary area of focus.

Your entire response has nothing to do with the messages you are responding to.

 

[smulji]

“Apple has already seen stagnating demand. On an annual basis, it's sold about the same number of phones in each of the last four years. In fact, the number of phones it sold in the year-long period that ended in June was 2% fewer than the number it sold in the same period that ended in June 2015.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/app...stream-consumers-2018-9?utm_source=reddit.com

I think it’s clear why Apple is going with higher priced phones, though this phenomenon of slowing smartphone growth is by no means exclusive to Apple. If they want to continue steadily increasing their profits, they also have to increase the price when sales are plateauing. Of course, this has the effect of reinforcing the plateauing sales as consumers seek longevity out of more and more expensive devices.



The standard 6 is for many people because it’s only got a 4.7” screen on it. Try comfortably reaching the opposing top corner of the bezel on a 6 though and you have what it would be like trying do so on a X or Xs. Most people probably can’t do it without shifting their natural grip on the phone.

"If they want to continue steadily increasing their profits, they also have to increase the price when sales are plateauing. Of course, this has the effect of reinforcing the plateauing sales as consumers seek longevity out of more and more expensive devices."

This can also backfire by decreasing sales and decreasing the size of the iOS user-base because user may have enough of ever increasing iPhone prices. There's only so high Apple can go

 

[PickUrPoison]

"If they want to continue steadily increasing their profits, they also have to increase the price when sales are plateauing. Of course, this has the effect of reinforcing the plateauing sales as consumers seek longevity out of more and more expensive devices."

This can also backfire by decreasing sales and decreasing the size of the iOS user-base because user may have enough of ever increasing iPhone prices. There's only so high Apple can go

Not sure where the quote is from but it’s not true. Apple can keep prices the same and still increase profits by lowering costs.

 

[danny842003]

Not sure where the quote is from but it’s not true. Apple can keep prices the same and still increase profits by lowering costs.

I’m not sure how easy that is to achieve. Remember apples competitors don’t all have to develop and support an operating system.
Apple still has to keep up with the technical side of competitors phones to keep driving sales. Some will say they aren’t doing this already but let’s say they are in the same ball park if not level.
If Apple reduces costs does that result in reduced features?

 

[smulji]

This is false. The increase is 10-15% for CPU, half of what you stated. The GPU is not double, only 50% better, again, half of what you stated. The better battery life is half an hour better, that is not "noticeably better." The new camera tricks has been available in an app since the X. Face ID is faster but doesn't work horizontal. Dual Sim is going to cater to what, 5%?, of people. Seems like a non update to me. XS MAX is what I am getting because the XS sucks for that price compared to my current X.

You forgot a new Neural Engine which is 9X faster. That's where the true power of the A12 lies. => ML / AI / AR
[doublepost=1537245201][/doublepost]

Some people definitely want smaller phones as evidenced by the three or four folks in this thread screaming that they know better than every phone manufacturer on the planet.

If any manufacturer felt that enough people wanted smaller phones, they’d make them. Apple held out for a long time, insisting that people did not want a larger device. And Galaxy sales took off. When Apple finally caved and released the 6, it sold like crazy. The SE was their small phone test. The folks screaming for a smaller phone with up to date components conveniently forget that Apple tried this once. The SE. It was up to date when it was released and yet it didn’t sell well. The market has spoken. There aren’t enough people who want a smaller phone for any manufacturer to make one.
[doublepost=1537207012][/doublepost]

Maybe so. Hard to say. Whether it’s 5, 10 or more years, the point remains. Marzipan is the first step towards a unified OS. That doesn’t mean it will look like iOS on the desktop, but under the hood it will be.

Apple has said countless time they're not unifying iOS / macOS
[doublepost=1537245299][/doublepost]

I know 8 people with the X and none of them are interested in moving up to the XS and these guys used to upgrade every year for the past 8 years. Just speculation on my part but it seems as the iphones get more expensive chances more people's upgrade cycle will take longer.

" but it seems as the iphones get more expensive chances more people's upgrade cycle will take longer."

And you think Apple is not aware of that? I suggest you read this insight analysis on this very topic:

http://www.asymco.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/

 

[vahdyx]

No surprises. I have the X and don't see a reason to upgrade. More likely to upgrade my series 3 to 4 though.

That's what I said on Friday and ended up with a Series 4 order today lol.

 

[zooby]

The majority of consumers don’t upgrade yearly. It’s funny to read people here complaining that there was no reason to this year. There isn’t really any reason to yearly to begin with.

And Apple can't win with them. iOS 12 - and future iOS updates hopefully - allows them to keep their device longer yet these same people complain about there being no new iOS features or a reason to upgrade their one year old phone.

 

[gaximus]

Not what I said.

Typically, in S releases we see something new added to the phone from the previous year. An example of this would be Siri, 3D Touch, new camera, etc. We see none of that with the XS.

That is what I was saying.

Your saying “typically a S release includes things like a new camera, and we see none of that in the XS”.

But the iPhone XS does a have a new camera system from the iPhone X.

Am I miss reading your comment?

 

[PickUrPoison]

Your saying “typically a S release includes things like a new camera, and we see none of that in the XS”.

But the iPhone XS does a have a new camera system from the iPhone X.

Am I miss reading your comment?

Not only does it have a new camera sensor and image signal processor, it also has a new 4x4 MIMO LTE gigabit class radio. Recent tests on US carriers show XS download speeds are doubled and upload speeds are increased by 50% over last year’s X. It’s a great S year improvement; this alone makes the XS worth the upgrade, even if you already have a X.