Kuo: Apple's AR/VR Headset Announcement is 'Last Hope' for Persuading Investors It Will Be the Next 'Star Product'

[Abazigal]

Mark my words. This is Apple’s “TV.”

It’s also very likely Tim Cook’s Newton.

Or it could go this way.

Apple announces headset, VR enthusiasts say it’s too expensive and missing critical features, it sells decently well anyway, developers flock to the platform and give it a hundred compelling reasons to exist.

Then next year, all existing players in the VR space release clones of the thing Apple did instead of proper follow-ups to their current products, and everybody forgets the old VR market ever existed.

 

[rymc02]

There's that same old concept rendering image again. Please something new next time.

Here is what midjourney came up with...

 

[jhuke]

I certainly agree that apple has its work cut out for it to deliver a compelling experience at anything like a reasonable price. That said, how many of have a $1k phone in our pocket vs how many thought they would ever have one at that price point 15 years ago?

Apple excels at design and has invested heavily in the hardware necessary to deliver unexpected experiences. The reason I think they will be successful is because they do still (with some misses) do the one thing that most other companies get wrong (Meta!): they focus on people. If you look at the technologies they have been quietly moving around the board, you see content creation, shared content experiences, gaming. These have the common thread of connecting PEOPLE in an experience. Most people haven't used the SharePlay feature on FaceTime but listening to some music with my wife while on the road last week, I realized how nice this was. Spatial audio. Delightful.

My guess is this device is going to extend what they are already doing: sharing content with the people in our lives. Think of that "its a wonderful life" FaceTime ad where there was no text, no voice over, just people experiencing life together while being physically apart. Apple, while flawed, isn't stupid. They know they are good at this. They are going to make something that will create a compelling experience bringing my kids to their grandma. The AR/VR or whatever they have come up with will be more than just vitamin D deficient men stumbling over their coffee table. Can they do it? we will see but with that kind of approach, I think apple would be the best bet to get it right, just synthesizing the tech they have already laid out for us.

Add cameras that somehow map our 3d full bodies and allow said grandma to be there at their school play overseas... boom! My 2 cents...

 

[Rogifan]

Or it could go this way.

Apple announces headset, VR enthusiasts say it’s too expensive and missing critical features, it sells decently well anyway, developers flock to the platform and give it a hundred compelling reasons to exist.

Then next year, all existing players in the VR space release clones of the thing Apple did instead of proper follow-ups to their current products, and everybody forgets the old VR market ever existed.

Haha, like developers flocked to Apple Watch? The reason the watch became successful is because Apple realized it’s primarily a fitness device and geared it towards that. No one has yet been able to say what the primary, compelling use case is that will make the average consumer want to put googles on their face. This is the epitome of a niche product but Tim Cook has pretty much gone all in on AR (like Microsoft and Google have done with AI) so I get why he’s pushing to release something. Before Apple Watch was announced Cook was saying people only wear glasses because they have to and talking up the wrist. Now he’s going to get up on stage and try and spin how wearing goggles on your face all day is a great thing? 🤣

 

[Rogifan]

What makes you think that this is a "fantasy product?" You know that it's already been done reasonably well six years ago by a small startup called North? They made a nice pair of smart glasses that really met the need that people find useful - an augmented HUD where you can visually (and privately) see notifications, alerts, and general information.

View attachment 2185142

They biggest problem they had (in 2017 mind you) was weight and battery life. Both of these things should be able to be significantly improved in the 6 years since Google acquired North and brought the tech back in for "refinement." The error Google made was buying the tech and not keeping the engineers. The Google Glass team took over and never released any implementation since then. This is exactly the type of thing where Apple can excel. There are multiple iterations of "Smart Glasses" out there, but none of them have gotten the formula quite right. This is where Apple can execute their proven game plan. They don't try to be the first out of the gate, they want to be the first one out of the gate to get it right. There were "smart phones" before the iPhone - Blackberry, Palm Treo, WinPC phones... but iPhone was the first to get the formula right. (And even it needed some refinements before it was at a "can't live-without" level of functionality.) There were previous MP3 players before the iPod, previous laptops before Mac notebooks changed the quality expectations, other tablets before iPad took over the game. But when Apple gets things right... they tend to change the market.

The key is that whatever the Apple product ends up being... it needs to be Glasses focused and discreet technology. VR tech is a non-starter (and Timmy C. has even been very pointed that this is an AR product not VR). But if they come out looking like a silly pair of ski goggles, the use-case will be very limited. Something like watching movies privately on an airplane limited. And until the use-case grows... sales will be limited.

I could maybe see something like this being beneficial for walking directions but in general I think people need to be less distracted, not more. They don’t need notifications shoved in their face 24/7. The problem tech companies have is they think people should be constantly connected. In reality society would probably be better off if we all unplugged more.

 

[Mrkevinfinnerty]

Or it could go this way.

Apple announces headset, VR enthusiasts say it’s too expensive and missing critical features, it sells decently well anyway, developers flock to the platform and give it a hundred compelling reasons to exist.

Then next year, all existing players in the VR space release clones of the thing Apple did instead of proper follow-ups to their current products, and everybody forgets the old VR market ever existed.

If it's more than $500 they definitely won't. Not enough interest in the category.

The developers will go where the users are.

 

[floral]

I agree. I don't see VR as having widespread appeal to consumers. AR, on the other hand, could be useful if done right. For instance, imagine having a floating arrow guiding you to your destination in an unfamiliar city. Or you pick up / look at an object, and information about the object is displayed in your AR view. It shouldn't block vision, but argument it by adding information. However, doing this well would be very difficult, and require a lot of thoughtful design.

I'd love to have an RPG like interface where I can see my current health, any status conditions/diseases I have, where I need to go to complete a quest, and how many stats a shirt would give me. Trying for a stealth build... blending into the flowers near an Apple Store would help me intercept a macbook >:3

 

[Pezimak]

that’s all true and that’s my point. when does Apple ever come out with something that is “totally new and never been done before”? it’s fairly rare. they usually take existing ideas or tech and improve upon them greatly.

why would someone buy an Apple Watch when it they can get notifications on their iPhone already? why would anyone get an iPad when it’s just a large iPhone and not even a full computer?

Apple nor anyone plans to sell BILLIONS of these things out the gate. we also don’t know the price tag yet. I’m sure there will be a good mix of “wow, that’s really cool” and “wow that’s really useful” when they reveal it. that’s all people need. if it adds coolness and convenience to things they already do, they’re sold. as long as it isn’t ugly, cumbersome and uber expensive.

I say all of that to say… let’s just wait for the reveal. until then, there’s no point in assuming doom, gloom and failure.

As said above this post, the Apple Watch is a success because it's a health monitor. It is packed with sensors that no other Apple device has. If people just wanted to tell the time they wouldn't get an Apple Watch.
The iPad is promoted by Apple as a laptop replacement, remember those ads stating to 'rethink what a computer is"? It is offered with a pen and keyboard options. And even then although it sells well it's never sold as many units as the iPhone and probably not as many as the Apple Watch does. But the iPad is still the only large screen device with a touch screen Apple sells.

But a phone can already do AR, apps and games have done this.

As you say we shall see, but rumours as posted on this very website did indicate a price tag of around 3 grand. Hence why many think it will fail, it'll be very expensive and have no real use case for the public.

 

[Fukui]

the last hope for convincing investors that the AR/MR headset device could have a chance to be the next star product

investors are pinning their hopes on a product that doesn't even (outside of rumors) even exist yet?

 

[Realityck]

investors are pinning their hopes on a product that doesn't even (outside of rumors) even exist yet?

Yep, pure speculation on something unannounced.

I think Apple is being used as an excuse now by other companies that they weren't able to launch a successful consumer push into this niche marketplace. Sad isn't it. So thats why all the articles before WWDC 2023.
example

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that that to date, investors have overestimated customers' actual desire and demand for mixed and virtual reality headsets — but that could change with Apple.

Apple might be getting into VR at the worst possible time

It seems to be a tough time to sell high-end headsets

www.theverge.com

 

[robbietop]

With Sony cutting production plans for the PS VR2 and an estimated 300,000 product lifecycle shipments for the Meta Quest Pro, Kuo believes there is "insufficient evidence" to indicate that AR/VR headsets can become the next major thing in consumer electronics.

Anyone wanna argue with Kuo or market realities?

What more do people need to understand that VR/AR IS NOT the future of electronics?

Do I need to show everyone our return rate on Oculus's? The 645 days they typically sit on the shelf after being bought and returned within a month? Or the fact that out of the 45 Oculus products we have sold, 75% have been returned and eventually end up cash and carry for employees?

Or is PSVR2 and Oculus's failure in the market gonna be enough REAL HARD EVIDENCE?

 

[RogueWarrior65]

You need to look at Apple's track record for major products to see how they do things. They weren't the first MP3 player on the market but their UX kicked everyone's ass. They weren't the first "smart" phone on the market either and everyone had a Blackberry. But the iPhone's UX kicked everyone's ass. One could argue that the original Mac UX kicked ass too.
So, given that and the fact that AR/VR exists in the form of Oculus, which if you haven't tried it, is pretty cool, Apple needs to make the UX so far removed from what people are expecting that you'll forget everything else that came before.

 

[DarthBuzzard]

Anyone wanna argue with Kuo or market realities?

What more do people need to understand that VR/AR IS NOT the future of electronics?

Do I need to show everyone our return rate on Oculus's? The 645 days they typically sit on the shelf after being bought and returned within a month? Or the fact that out of the 45 Oculus products we have sold, 75% have been returned and eventually end up cash and carry for employees?

Or is PSVR2 and Oculus's failure in the market gonna be enough REAL HARD EVIDENCE?

Arguing with Kuo and market realities is how smart people successfully predicted the rise of personal computers and cellphones when the world said they didn't want them. Steve Jobs said in the past that you need to bet against what consumers say they want and produce products that they don't yet know they want.

All the 'evidence' you provide is the same evidence you'd see from every successful hardware market today, if we were to look into their early days with their own growing pains.

PCs used to sit on store shelves; years would go by without people buying them. They'd collect dust in homes; people couldn't figure out how to use them, or couldn't see any usecases.

 

[DonutHands]

I'm excited about it. Everything has got to start somewhere. AR, VR, and MR (xR?) are all coming, and at some point there's going to need to be a product and platform for people to develop for it. Apple has proven many times in the past to take niche products and implement them in a way that brings them to the masses. They're usually not first to the game, but they have always ended up being pretty darn good (or excellent in my opinion). iPod, iPhone, iPad, AirPods, and that's just post-2000. Excited to see what the future brings.

This is exactly what I am concerned with, Apple took very well accepted products that people use in daily life and made them better with features people didn't even know they needed.

The AR/VR market is not widely used or even remotely considered to be a part of peoples daily lives. Im sure Apple can innovate in the market, but I just can't see people, en masse, adopting this wearable on your face technology any time soon.

 

[Mimiron]

The prototype is fugly, i was expecting it to be more like standard glasses.

 

[PowerButton]

I wouldn’t be surprised if this headset ends up like Google Glass.

View attachment 2184956

Google Launches New $999 Glass AR Headset for Enterprise Customers

Google today announced the launch of a new enterprise-focused Google Glass headset, the Glass Enterprise Edition 2. The Glass Enterprise Edition 2...

www.macrumors.com

There’s your problem right there, an optical display of 640 x 380 circa 1990s 🤣

 

[George Dawes]

Be ironic and wonderful if they come out with a Joe 90 type set

Ultra sleek and the big bulky stuff was just misdirection

 

[david.olstein]

I don't really get the UseCase Apple is planning with these.
And without a UseCase, the pricepoint and the debatable design (furthermore, debatable battery decisions) my guess is a flop.

For me there are a few - (1) virtual computer monitor - creating an image that will replicate a 32 inch monitor - would be great for travel; (2) virtual movie theater - creating an image that will replicate watching a movie on a theater-sized screen - as an apartment dweller, I'll never have a giant sized home screen TV - getting the equivalent experience from $3k VR goggles would be a worthwhile investment for me; (3) 3D video of any kind - VR goggles that can toggle between left-right images at high speed are probably the best way to watch 3D video. And the VR goggles could create 3D content as well. A truly killer app, for me, woudl be one that allowed you to "see" through someone else's eyes, so to speak, in real time. And of course there are gaming applications.

I see this as a high end entertainment device. Which is good enough for me.

 

[CarAnalogy]

Okay so context: the wise allknowing and only insurance policy we have against the AI singularity John Carmack used to be part of the board of Oculus back when they were a startup in 2012-2014 before they were bought by Facebook. So when they got bought he took an interim role at Facebook. He kept Zuckerberg mostly in check with realistic goals to push the VR industry forward

And then in 2021 Zuckerberg started his Ready Player One LARP betting the farm on the Metaverse, the complete opposite of what Carmack said to do. Surprisingly they let Carmack roast them during Meta Connect

John Carmack Meta Connect 2022 Unscripted Talk

For VR news & reviews: http://www.uploadvr.comFollow us!ð¦ Twitter: https://twitter.com/UploadVRð Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/uploadvr/Become a memb...

www.youtube.com

After that, Carmack officially left the company. Zuck wants his Metaverse so he’s clearly not listening to him anymore so there was no reason for Carmack to stay. The moment Mark started that Metaverse crap it started the VR dark age we’re in right now as it really harmed reception of VR

This is why the VR sphere is waiting with baited breath for Apple Reality as they hope the headset will improve public reception of VR/AR.

Thank you, I was not up on the recent history. Makes sense. Even though he technically worked for Zuck, he would have to be a fool to hire someone like that and not listen to him.

Which is apparently what eventually happened.

Would be nice if Apple snapped him up. But for some reason they don’t have a reputation of hiring world class experts and just letting them do their thing. Ironically Google does but doesn’t seem to have much to show for it (besides a way better keyboard.)

Edit: looks like he’s back to working for himself now as of this year. Wonder what he’ll do next.

 

[Macalway]

The only way something like this is going to fly is if it's affordable.
The Newton was cool and affordable, but it wasn't ready. This isn't ready and it's also not affordable.

 

[NEPOBABY]

Here is what midjourney came up with...

Her hair is going to be rekt when she takes it off, if she doesn't get rekt hitting a wall first.

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

Thank you, I was not up on the recent history. Makes sense. Even though he technically worked for Zuck, he would have to be a fool to hire someone like that and not listen to him.

Which is apparently what eventually happened.

Would be nice if Apple snapped him up. But for some reason they don’t have a reputation of hiring world class experts and just letting them do their thing. Ironically Google does but doesn’t seem to have much to show for it (besides a way better keyboard.)

Edit: looks like he’s back to working for himself now as of this year. Wonder what he’ll do next.

As I already said: he's doing rocketeering now.

not gonna happen. Human cyborg jujitsu practitioner John Carmack is doing rocketeering now. John does whatever he wants to innovate in next. It's why he left Id Software in 2013 because he was done with video games and wanted to advance virtual reality, and now through his own company he wants to make space rockets.

View attachment 2185259

 

[Surf Monkey]

For me there are a few - (1) virtual computer monitor - creating an image that will replicate a 32 inch monitor - would be great for travel; (2) virtual movie theater - creating an image that will replicate watching a movie on a theater-sized screen - as an apartment dweller, I'll never have a giant sized home screen TV - getting the equivalent experience from $3k VR goggles would be a worthwhile investment for me; (3) 3D video of any kind - VR goggles that can toggle between left-right images at high speed are probably the best way to watch 3D video. And the VR goggles could create 3D content as well. A truly killer app, for me, woudl be one that allowed you to "see" through someone else's eyes, so to speak, in real time. And of course there are gaming applications.

I see this as a high end entertainment device. Which is good enough for me.

Apple’s TV.

 

[Surf Monkey]

The only way something like this is going to fly is if it's affordable.
The Newton was cool and affordable, but it wasn't ready. This isn't ready and it's also not affordable.

Newton Message Pad was $900 at release in 1990. That’s roughly $1,800 in today dollars. I’m not sure I’d characterize that as “affordable.”

Remembering Apple’s Newton, 30 years on

On its 30th anniversary, we look at the groundbreaking product’s enduring legacy.

arstechnica.com

 

[H. Flower]

As Ive always said, never bet against Apple..........BUT the negative leaks are concerning this time around.