Kuo: iPhone 11 Demand and Upcoming Launch of 'iPhone SE 2' to Boost Overall iPhone Sales Growth in Q1 2020

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Apple will sell around 10 percent more iPhones in the first quarter of 2020, thanks to strong replacement demand for its iPhone 11 series devices and next year's launch of the "iPhone SE 2," claims Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in his latest research note, seen by MacRumors.

We expect that combined iPhone shipments in 1Q20 will grow around 10% YoY thanks to the iPhone 11's replacement demand boosted by more affordable prices and iPhone SE2's shipments starting in 1Q20. We estimate that iPhone shipment in 1Q20 will be 45-50mn units (iPhone 11 Pro series and iPhone 11 to be 13-15 and 22-24mn units, respectively), which is better than around 42mn units of iPhone shipments in 1Q19 (iPhone XS series and iPhone XR to be around 12 and 14mn units, respectively).
The TFI Securities analyst estimates that iPhone 11 series shipments will reach between 70 and 75 million units in 2019, and he believes that figure may have been higher but for supply constraints. A Nikkei report previously claimed Apple has upped orders from suppliers after stronger-than-expected demand for its latest flagship phones.

Specifically, Kuo estimates that shipments of the iPhone 11 Pro in 2019 will be around 37-40 million units, and shipments of the iPhone 11 will be around 36 to 40 million units.

If those figures are accurate, Kuo says Pro series shipments will be lower than last year's equivalent iPhone XS shipments, but only because of a tighter supply caused by "increased production difficulties" of specific iPhone 11 Pro components. Meanwhile, shipments of iPhone 11 will be higher than 2018's iPhone XR, mainly because the iPhone XR didn't start shipping until the middle of the fourth quarter.

Kuo says Apple has increased some suppliers' shipment forecasts or capacity requirements in the fourth quarter to ensure that shipments going into next year meet demand. Boosted by more affordable prices, the high replacement demand for the iPhone 11 could run into the first quarter of 2020, the analyst believes. As a result, Kuo estimates that "iPhone 11 shipments in 1Q20 (22-24mn units) will be better than those of iPhone XR in 1Q19 (14mn units) significantly."

Kuo has previously claimed that Apple plans to release a lower-priced "iPhone SE 2" in the first quarter of 2020. Earlier this month, he said the device will feature a similar form factor design and specifications as the iPhone 8, with a faster A13 chip and 3GB of RAM.

Article Link: Kuo: iPhone 11 Demand and Upcoming Launch of 'iPhone SE 2' to Boost Overall iPhone Sales Growth in Q1 2020
 
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ksec

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Dec 23, 2015
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In it, it "appears" he is describing manufacturing shipments, NOT projected "unit sales".

Apple needs to get as many iPhones as possible into its Sales Channel here in the States BEFORE Dec 15th, to circumvent the 15% iPhone Tariff, which incidentally, Kuo does NOT even mention !
Exactly this, and if you read the numbers 75M of iPhone 11 would highest in "new" iPhone sold. Apple normally sells around 7x M with a mix of New and Old in Q1 , anywhere between 60% to 70% New iPhone, the rest of older lower price iPhone.

Basically Apple is making as much iPhone as they could and try to stock up all unit they need in US.

I am also wondering if the iPhone SE2 will be made in India.
 
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Moonjumper

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SE2 as a new cheaper phone is meant here, not a new small phone. I believe there are markets for both, but don’t need to be the same phone.
 
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shpankey

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Can we pretty please get that flat sided design back on the SE 2? Most visually appealing phone ever.

I'd love to see a glowing logo on the back also. Man that would be sexy.
 
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MareLuce

macrumors 6502a
Sep 26, 2010
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Apple hit a home run with the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro.
Definitely.
I am totally smitten by the 11 Pro Max. 2 reasons:

1) I can capture moments that I've never been able to capture with my iPhone. I *really* want to take a picture in low light much more frequently than I feel, "I really wish I could have used Portrait mode / bokeh".

2) My phone's battery lasts significantly longer than ever before. All of the questionable decisions with personal safety implications I've made while on (solo female) work travel occurred after phone battery died.

Next to it just being a good TELEPHONE, those are the 2 most important things.
Those 2 features make it, for me, the most must-have iPhone upgrade since the 7's improvements over the 6+.

1570397108963.png


favorite case after trying the Apple Silicone, Apple Leather, Apple Clear, and a Casemate

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Just wish I had it last month in Alaska...
1570397557707.png
 
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Mr. Mad Vibes

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Great to hear! Upgraded from 8 plus to 11 base. Loving it so far. Size, specs and the Red color edition. Just a stop gap for when Apple goes all screen display, Usb C and maybe 5g. Crossing fingers for next year
 

Baymowe335

macrumors 603
Oct 6, 2017
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In it, it "appears" he is describing manufacturing shipments, NOT projected "unit sales".

Apple needs to get as many iPhones as possible into its Sales Channel here in the States BEFORE Dec 15th, to circumvent the 15% iPhone Tariff, which incidentally, Kuo does NOT even mention !
I think you’ve posted this enough.

You're also speculating.
 

Andres Cantu

macrumors 68030
May 31, 2015
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I think the increased demand is definitely there, but the real question is, how much does this increased demand take away from the 2020 iPhone?

Surely there will be people that upgrade anyway, but the supposed "super cycle" due to the 5G iPhone might not be as "super" as the analysts think.
 
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pdaholic

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Jun 22, 2011
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I’m really surprised by how well the 11 is selling, especially with all the rumors surrounding the 2020 phones, which admittedly the general public probably doesn’t hear about. My X will stay until a notchless design comes around.
 
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magicschoolbus

macrumors 65816
May 27, 2014
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I don’t understand why people are in love with this new iPhone... a better camera as the main feature does nothing for me. I’m obviously in the minority on this one.

I’d love an iPhone with usb c, and bi lateral wireless charging however.

I feel like the most innovative product Apple has is the watch.
 

PickUrPoison

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Sep 12, 2017
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In it, it "appears" he is describing manufacturing shipments, NOT projected "unit sales".

Apple needs to get as many iPhones as possible into its Sales Channel here in the States BEFORE Dec 15th, to circumvent the 15% iPhone Tariff, which incidentally, Kuo does NOT even mention !
FTA: “We expect that combined iPhone shipments in 1Q20 will grow around 10% YoY....”

That has exactly zero to do with any potential 4Q19 inventory buildup in anticipation of higher tariffs.

Besides, according to Foxconn, they already have sufficient manufacturing capacity outside China to supply US requirements:

“Foxconn chairman Terry Guo has also said that should the need arise to adjust production lines, his company already has enough capacity outside of China to meet Apple’s demand in the U.S. market.”
 
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Rogifan

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Nov 14, 2011
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In it, it "appears" he is describing manufacturing shipments, NOT projected "unit sales".

Apple needs to get as many iPhones as possible into its Sales Channel here in the States BEFORE Dec 15th, to circumvent the 15% iPhone Tariff, which incidentally, Kuo does NOT even mention !
But Apple is not going to manufacture phones they don’t think they can sell.
I’m betting that a true successor to the iPhone SE will never happen and the compact 4” screen size is dead.

All these “SE 2” rumours are click-bait and Apple instead is simply going to refresh the iPhone 8.
The SE was just a refreshed 5. There’s obviously not enough demand for small phones. But the people that want one are very vocal so it gives the impression demand is higher than it really is. I hope they do refresh the 8 at a lower price point. My mother uses my old 6 and the battery is really bad. But I don’t want to replace it with an 8 if a refresh is coming out next quarter.
 
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now i see it

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So far, Ming is the only one who's mentioned a possible SE2. That's not solid enough to count on it coming to fruition.
 
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EugW

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Jun 18, 2017
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I’m really surprised by how well the 11 is selling, especially with all the rumors surrounding the 2020 phones, which admittedly the general public probably doesn’t hear about. My X will stay until a notchless design comes around.
The 11 is a solid value, and it is no longer stuck with just a single lens camera.

The value of the Pro line is suspect though. Still overpriced.

Even though I’m not a huge fan of its pixel density, the 11 is the one I recommend to most people.
 
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