Kuo: iPhone 11 Demand and Upcoming Launch of 'iPhone SE 2' to Boost Overall iPhone Sales Growth in Q1 2020

[code-m]

I was skeptical as well. However, having spent time with it, it really is more than an XR on Protein Bars.

Its more than enough phone for the majority of those on the edge of what to do. I think the general malaise over 5G from non power users (the vast majority) and the drop to $699 has converted a lot of 7/8 users to the 11.

The Pros are probably the best iPhones to date if you have the budget. The extra $400 for the Max 64g is a large some of green for the majority of users.

Apple continues to make great strides pushing users to iCloud with the 64g entry points. I know many who are heavy iCloud users and do just fine with 64g.

So, with the $699 price, Apple’s aggressive Trade In program, and IMO, some wanting to give Apple a “let’s see how the all new design actually turns out the first year” the 11 and 11 Pro are outstanding devices at their final design point.

It is curious to note why Apple did not incorporate the wide and tele cameras on the 11 vice outfitting it with the less used ultra-wide. Had Apple done this it would basically be the XS with an LCD and a in between screen size, barring the difference is the shell.

11 is fine with a base 64GB storage option but it’s just demonstrates how overpriced the Pro models are. I would have traded my XS for the 11 had it got a telephoto vice ultra-wide as I find for my uses LCD is preferred.

 

[0924487]

The 11 is a solid value, and it is no longer stuck with just a single lens camera.

The value of the Pro line is suspect though. Still overpriced.

Even though I’m not a huge fan of its pixel density, the 11 is the one I recommend to most people.

I agree 11 is solid value and the Pros are still grossly overpriced. But I don't like the subpar screen on the 11 tho. If they put the same standard of LCD from the iPad Pro models to the iPhone 11, not even the OLED, then I would drop my iPhone 8 and get an iPhone 11. iPhone 8 is the last LCD iPhone with premium LCD pannels. XR and later all use value-oriented LCD panels.

 

[realtuner]

I'm really surprised with this continued narrative. Lots of people buy phones to last 4 years. 5g will be something worth having by then, so some people can wait another year to get that feature to take them to 2024. It's something people refer to as 'future proofing'.

Also, for the life of me I don't understand why this upsets so many people. You are not Apple. Lol

No it won't. It's pretty much all marketing with regards to smartphone users.

I find it amazing that people think the "last mile" of pipe to their smartphone being much faster will suddenly make their whole experience better. It won't. I had gigabit Internet when it first came out (upgraded from 100 megabit). It made no discernible difference in my Internet experience except for a few specific cases (like downloading large game patches or movies from multiple servers at the same time). Everything else was about the same speed as before.

The limiting factor in you getting your content is typically the performance of the server providing it and what load it's experiencing. This is why websites didn't load 10x faster for me when I upgraded to a connection that was 10x faster.

 

[code-m]

Coming from a XS, the 11 Pro Max battery life is incredible, and the camera system is truly amazing!

I am on the 13.2 beta, and with "Deep Fusion" the photos only get better. Night Mode is truly magic, and the video is amazing as well. The upgraded front facing camera is also very nice.

The iPhone 11 Pro's are worth the upgrade, even if you have a XS/XS Max, in my humble opinion. Especially if you need long battery life, and you like to take photos/videos and would actually use the Triple Lens Camera System.

I have this suspicion that the 2020 models will introduce NightMode for video and/or portraits etc and the 2019 models will be sol. Some excuse will be given about the A14 versus the A13 that makes it possible, whatever Apple.

I am pleased that demand is better than expected, however we are not sure what internal target Apple set for itself for the quarter. The rounded square is just begging for three inclusion of a forth rear camera, otherwise it just looks out of place.

 

[SRLMJ23]

This is exactly what’s going to happen.

4.7” screen like the 8, Touch-ID, A13, camera from XR/11, etc.

I personally do not think it should get the A13 SoC or possibly a double lens camera, because we just paid a lot of money for our iPhone 11 models, and yes, I know we paid for more than just the A13, but Apple should stick an A12 in it, which will be plenty good for an iPhone with a 4.7" LCD screen, and most likely one camera...like you mentioned from the XR. If it gets a double lens camera, I think some people who got the non-pro iPhone 11, would feel a little robbed, especially if they like TouchID better than FaceID.

But hey, that is just my opinion.

 

[HEK]

My mother uses my old 6 and the battery is really bad. But I don’t want to replace it with an 8 if a refresh is coming out next quarter.

Treat your mother to a battery replacement. It’s your mother for goodness sake.

 

[44267547]

Cool. Meanwhile my fresh bought iPhone 11 Pro got a sharp edge on contact area screen and frame and I need to ask to replace it.

And Apple will replace it with no questions asked. The reason being, is that is a defect straight from the factory. The same thing also happened with the iPhone XS last year, where a plethora of members were having ‘sharp edges’ along the casing where it meets the display. But that’s the great thing about Apple’s customer service, they’ll make it right for you no matter what.

 

[HEK]

I wonder how much of this demands is due to people like our family that skipped the last few updates. Part of that is because the high price means it takes over 2 years to pay off the phone at the rates AT&T and Verizon charge per month.

I pay off half plus full tax then get latest phone. Zero interest lease, why buy whole thing.

 

[SRLMJ23]

I have this suspicion that the 2020 models will introduce NightMode for video and/or portraits etc and the 2019 models will be sol. Some excuse will be given about the A14 versus the A13 that makes it possible, whatever Apple.

I am pleased that demand is better than expected, however we are not sure what internal target Apple set for itself for the quarter. The rounded square is just begging for three inclusion of a forth rear camera, otherwise it just looks out of place.

Agree with you on everything you wrote. Though I was honestly surprised that the iPhone XS/XS Max got support for the "High Key Mono" portrait mode, even though you and I know they could support it (hell I think the iPhone X could) I thought Apple would come up with some excuse and make it an iPhone 11 only feature.

I would imagine Apple set a lower sales target for the quarter, seeing as how they are ramping up more production, however, that is obviously just a guess on my part.

When is the camera craze going to stop, is my question, and I am just talking Apple devices right now? I mean four cameras, from my point of view is the max amount that can go on an iPhone with out it looking super, super, awkward! Are we as consumers of Apple devices, seriously going to see more than four someday?

I would imagine yes, because I believe Samsung already has a phone with four cameras, and as you will see in the picture below, Light has a phone with NINE damn cameras.

If Apple could make the cameras flush, then I could MAYBE see six up in the back left hand corner of the iPhone, but why doesn't Apple just concentrate on making better sensors and what not in their cameras (yes I know Apple does not make their own cameras, however, they should invest money into whoever makes their cameras so this can be achieved - or start making their own) so it can use only three or four cameras but get the same result as phones with more cameras? It is going to get to a point where things are just going to get downright ugly, not matter how beautiful the actual design of the iPhone is, if they go sticking all these cameras on the back.

Anyway...rant over...pic below.

 

[code-m]

Agree with you on everything you wrote. Though I was honestly surprised that the iPhone XS/XS Max got support for the "High Key Mono" portrait mode, even though you and I know they could support it (hell I think the iPhone X could) I thought Apple would come up with some excuse and make it an iPhone 11 only feature.

I would imagine Apple set a lower sales target for the quarter, seeing as how they are ramping up more production, however, that is obviously just a guess on my part.

When is the camera craze going to stop, is my question, and I am just talking Apple devices right now? I mean four cameras, from my point of view is the max amount that can go on an iPhone with out it looking super, super, awkward! Are we as consumers of Apple devices, seriously going to see more than four someday?

I would imagine yes, because I believe Samsung already has a phone with four cameras, and as you will see in the picture below, Light has a phone with NINE damn cameras.

If Apple could make the cameras flush, then I could MAYBE see six up in the back left hand corner of the iPhone, but why doesn't Apple just concentrate on making better sensors and what not in their cameras (yes I know Apple does not make their own cameras, however, they should invest money into whoever makes their cameras so this can be achieved - or start making their own) so it can use only three or four cameras but get the same result as phones with more cameras? It is going to get to a point where things are just going to get downright ugly, not matter how beautiful the actual design of the iPhone is, if they go sticking all these cameras on the back.

Anyway...rant over...pic below.

View attachment 867283

I believe “High-Key” made it because portrait mode uses layers so to omit the background layer is relatively simple done via software. But I do agree it was a welcoming surprise on Apple‘s part to included it in pre 11 models.

Seems like most smartphone hardware makers have decided that consumers have some sort of camera envy with how many we can flash around in public. I agree Apple should be focusing to do more with less similar to how Google was able to with low light images. Seems strange that like “High-Key” it was not about to be released on even the X, it’s not like the A11 or 12 are being taxed. Will it be slow to process possibly, however I don’t believe by that much. If I understood the technical portion explanation of the A13 it mainly had to do with battery management and efficiency due to die shrink.

Curious to see where all these cameras in smartphones ends up.

 

[smulji]

I agree 11 is solid value and the Pros are still grossly overpriced. But I don't like the subpar screen on the 11 tho. If they put the same standard of LCD from the iPad Pro models to the iPhone 11, not even the OLED, then I would drop my iPhone 8 and get an iPhone 11. iPhone 8 is the last LCD iPhone with premium LCD pannels. XR and later all use value-oriented LCD panels.

The iPhone XR was the first Apple product to get the Liquid Retina Screen so it's the iPad Pro that is getting the screen from the XR with one exception => it has a 120hz refresh rate. As far as resolution goes, the iPad Pro has a lower resolution 264ppi screen vs the iPhone XR / iPhone 11 at 327ppi. So it's all about perspective.
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I personally do not think it should get the A13 SoC or possibly a double lens camera, because we just paid a lot of money for our iPhone 11 models, and yes, I know we paid for more than just the A13, but Apple should stick an A12 in it, which will be plenty good for an iPhone with a 4.7" LCD screen, and most likely one camera...like you mentioned from the XR. If it gets a double lens camera, I think some people who got the non-pro iPhone 11, would feel a little robbed, especially if they like TouchID better than FaceID.

But hey, that is just my opinion.

That's a good point. Which begs the question, why not not just do it now & eliminate the iPhone 8 series from the lineup? Why wait till Q1 2020?

 

[fokmik]

In it, it "appears" he is describing manufacturing shipments, NOT projected "unit sales".

Apple needs to get as many iPhones as possible into its Sales Channel here in the States BEFORE Dec 15th, to circumvent the 15% iPhone Tariff, which incidentally, Kuo does NOT even mention !

Jesus the obsession with this. We get it. Calm down ,you don’t need to says this in every article about sales

 

[zeesix]

I don't get the point of an SE2 if it's the size of an iphone 6/7/8. Isn't the budget phone the 11 now?

 

[JustForward]

I don't get the point of an SE2 if it's the size of an iphone 6/7/8. Isn't the budget phone the 11 now?

 will call it the new iPhone 8s.

 

[SRLMJ23]

I believe “High-Key” made it because portrait mode uses layers so to omit the background layer is relatively simple done via software. But I do agree it was a welcoming surprise on Apple‘s part to included it in pre 11 models.

Seems like most smartphone hardware makers have decided that consumers have some sort of camera envy with how many we can flash around in public. I agree Apple should be focusing to do more with less similar to how Google was able to with low light images. Seems strange that like “High-Key” it was not about to be released on even the X, it’s not like the A11 or 12 are being taxed. Will it be slow to process possibly, however I don’t believe by that much. If I understood the technical portion explanation of the A13 it mainly had to do with battery management and efficiency due to die shrink.

Curious to see where all these cameras in smartphones ends up.

Once again, I agree with you completely!

During the A13 part of the keynote, they also talked quite a bit about the two "Machine Learning Accelerators" which are used for matrix multiplication, which is used heavily for Machine Learning. It is those accelerators of the A13 that make it six-times faster at those calculations than the A12, and also that make the A13 reach the trillion-operations per-second milestone.

I think the A11 could handle High Key Mono easily, maybe one to two seconds more to process the image...who knows?

Apple should definitely be focusing on doing more with less, which I believe they can do, especially with the engineers and obviously the money they have for R&D.

They just took over/bought the patents of Intel's modem division (because Intel abandoned it) and I bet pretty soon Apple will be putting their own modems in iPhones, which will probably either be right on par with Qualcomm or even better - especially if they can put a team together that can innovate/function like their silicon team - or maybe that team works on the modems as well? Just like with Apples custom silicon, custom built modems would have the benefit of Apple being able to seamlessly tailor the software to the modems which will make for an overall better result, just like iOS/iPadOS/tvOS/WatchOS with the A-series chips, or in the case of the Apple Watch the S-series chips. Cannot include macOS in there, because they obviously run on Intel chips, however, macOS works extremely well even on non-custom Apple silicon.

It will be interesting to see how Apple does building their own modems, like I said, I expect a great modem and even better overall product.

 

[JustForward]

Stop calling it the “SE 2”.

That not what it is... at all.

Agree.

 

[Constable Odo]

Apple hit a home run with the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro.

This again could prove the naysayers wrong.

I love when Apple naysayers are proven wrong. The know-it-alls prove they know nothing, at all. Great reviews for the iPhone's Deep Fusion photo processing in iOS 13 beta will make the iPhone's camera that much better than most competitor's cameras. Sweet.

 

[Abazigal]

Louis Rossman has stated in one of his recent videos that he might consider switching to an iPhone SE if it proves compelling enough.

Your move, Apple.

 

[Constable Odo]

Proves how much no one really cares about 5G. Happy with my X, can’t justify the upgrade yet.

It's hard to justify a 5G smartphone without encompassing 5G infrastructure. So, although it might be great to have a 5G smartphone in So. Korea, I doubt it will be of much use throughout the U.S. for the next couple of years. Some people say that 4G LTE doesn't work well everywhere in the U.S. even after all this time.

 

[SRLMJ23]

I love when Apple naysayers are proven wrong. The know-it-alls prove they know nothing, at all. Great reviews for the iPhone's Deep Fusion photo processing in iOS 13 beta will make the iPhone's camera that much better than most competitor's cameras. Sweet.

I am on 13.2, and Deep Fusion is amazing, or as Jobs would say "it works like magic" and it really does. I cannot believe the level of detail and de-noising that Deep Fusion does.

At first all the nay-sayers were simply laughing at the name "Deep Fusion" and also questioning if it would really work like Apple said and showed it would. Well, they have been proven wrong, and Deep Fusion will only get better as Machine Learning gets better, and well...learns.

 

[Constable Odo]

I think the increased demand is definitely there, but the real question is, how much does this increased demand take away from the 2020 iPhone?

Surely there will be people that upgrade anyway, but the supposed "supercycle" due to the 5G iPhone might not be as "super" as the analysts think.

Don't start talking about analysts and their iPhone "supercycle." Those fools just love to hear themselves talk. The high-end smartphone market is completely saturated and there likely won't be any sales "super cycle" no matter what features the next iPhone has. Apple shouldn't have to depend on something like that. If Apple needs more revenue, there are other viable means of getting it by acquiring a cloud business for the enterprise. That's where real growth will be.

 

[NamE_O]

I’ve been calling for this since the introduction of iPhone SE, but Apple should let the 2nd gen iPhone SE inherit iPhone X design languages (no home button, near bezel-less w/ notch, round sides) and call it the iPhone SE X. It’s going to sell like hot cakes.

 

[waquzy]

I'd love to see a glowing logo on the back also. Man that would be sexy.

Nah, I think it’s pointless and would look cheap and tacky

 

[travelsheep]

Waiting for a sub € 1000 phone from Apple that has OLED.

 

[djcerla]

In it, it "appears" he is describing manufacturing shipments, NOT projected "unit sales".

Apple needs to get as many iPhones as possible into its Sales Channel here in the States BEFORE Dec 15th, to circumvent the 15% iPhone Tariff, which incidentally, Kuo does NOT even mention !

from the report: “thanks to strong replacement demand”.

Get over it.