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Kuo: New High-End Mac Mini Won't Arrive Until Next Year

city_17 said:
I can imagine they won't upgrade the Mac Mini to M2 until they also upgrade the Mac Studio to prevent a powerful Mini cannibalizing the cheapest Studio.
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The regular M2 won't be as powerful as the M1 Max in the entry level Studio. You're talking an M1 with 8 performance cores and 24 GPU cores vs. a M2 with 4 faster cores and 10 GPU cores. For the sort of multi-threaded, GPU-heavy tasks that the Max is aimed out, the M1 Max having twice the number of cores will likely trump the individual M2 cores being a bit faster.

The M1/M1 Pro/M1 Max distinctions are also about RAM capacity, number of ports supported and number of displays supported. The regular M2 will likely have similar restrictions to the M1 in that respect (since its #1 priority will be MacBook Air and iPad where they're not a problem).

...what might be a bit more problematic is a M2 Mini co-existing with a M1 Pro Mini/Studio (which is the rung currently missing from the Mini ladder). Similar arguments apply to M2 vs M1 Max, but it's a closer-run thing, especially on GPU performance where 10 next-gen GPU cores might give 16 old-gen cores a run for their money, and I don't think anybody knows how many TB ports the Pro can actually support.

If you look at the M1 release cycle, we've had the regular M1 in Nov 2020, the M1 Pro and Max in Oct 2021 and the M1 Ultra in March 2022. So it would be somewhat surprising for the M2, M2 Pro/Max and M2 Ultra (if it follows the same pattern) to all appear simultaneously. Also, the regular M1 machines are the oldest, and first in line for an upgrade.

I'd say that we might (nothing is certain) get a M2 Mini before too long - maybe at the same time as the M2 Air (they don't want to keep making M1s any longer than they need) but I'd be very surprised if M2 Pro/Max turn up until Apple are ready to upgrade the 14/16" MBPs.

The M1 Pro Mini might be a no-show because in a few months time it could be up against a M2 Mini.

On the other hand, it wouldn't be the first time that there had been nothing between a <~$1000 Mini and a $3000+ headless desktop. Even the 2018 i7 Mini was knobbled with a feeble GPU. The M1 Max version of the Studio at $2000 is already a "rung" that never existed before. Even the Trashcan started at $3000, the Classic Mac Pro at $2500 (with feeble RAM and storage specs).

SoldOnApple said:
M series, Pro, Max, Ultra... it's kinda confusing naming system. Ultra has more than Max, doesn't max mean maximum? Have to wonder what they will name the chip configuration in the Mac Pro.
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It's an awful naming system. Apart from using "pro" to mean something different than it does with Mac models and using "max" when they knew they had something max-er in the pipeline (did they learn nothing from OS X Lion?) we have the architecture generation up-front (so M2 is slower than M1 Pro, let alone if we end up with M2 Pro vs M1 Max....) - then there's "M1" ambiguously referring to both a specific chip model and the whole M1/Pro/Max/Ultra/Quad range.

Seriously folks - no point reacting to rumours about M2 launches by saying "that would be confusing" - the confusion is already a done deal.
 
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lysingur said:
Apple will miss their self-imposed Nov 17, 2022 deadline for the Apple Silicon transition.
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Maybe maybe not.

Wording at the event makes it absolutely possible that the MPro gets announced at WWDC based on A14/M1 IP but done in a way that it won't be part of the M1 family.

The Intel Mini will just wither away at one point in this year even if there isn't a M1Pro Mini to replace it.

One possibility is that M2 will increase core counts over the M1 and a binned down version will be used in the base configs for Mini, iMac and MacBookWhatever with the full chip being close enough to the binned down Max to forego making M?Pro chips.
 
JPack said:
Everything points to M2 (or TSMC N4) being delayed.

First MBA M1 or M1+. Now Mac mini slipping to 2023.
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As someone else pointed out if the M2 is 4nm then it's based off of the A16 core design not the A15, so it was always planned for this fall. A likely schedule would be:

Fall 2022 - M2 MBA and/or M2 13" MBP, possibly refreshed 24" iMac
Spring 2023 - M2 Pro/Max launch with refreshed 14" & 16" MBP, Mini updated to M2, M2 Pro option.
Fall 2023 - M2 Ultra launches in refreshed Mac Studio.

The Mac Pro gets in there somewhere but I suspect that will be treated more like a niche product with highly custom chips.

Apple seems to be settling into a rhythm of launching a product with the basic consumer chip and letting demand settle for six months, then launching the next product and/or more powerful chip and letting demand settle with an 18-24 month update cycle for each generation.
 
I kinda of wish it was coming this year. The studio looks amazing, but a hair more than I'd like to spend.
My 2012 quad mini with SSDs is still chugging, but I have some concerns. I haven't gone past Mojave and I am starting to want some new OS features, a few things behave slightly sluggy, and I really need to start the process of moving from Aperture to CaptureOne (or something).
 
My thoughts are that the basic M1 chip will get a slight spec bump for a new MacBook Air, Mac mini and iMac reserving the first M2 chips for the MacBook Pro and Mac Studio systems. I think that if the M2 was ready, it would have been in the Studio that was just released. I also think they should add a graphite option to the iMac with black bezels and an M1 Pro.
 
NightFox said:
What you've heard about is the Polishing Cloth Ultra; it's basically two cloths joined together for double the cleaning power.
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I did check the price on a cloth from Apple, £19.99 ffs.

And they dare charge that.
 
Economies of scale would suggest that they need another SKU to put M1 Pro SOCs into. Right now it's only the 14" & 16" MBP.

Unless....M1 Max yields are high enough that they have a surplus there, which might explain why the Studio starts at M1 Max.
 
I'm a bit surprised that we don't have a $1,299 Mac Mini with the same M1 Pro chip that is in the base 14" MacBook Pro, replacing the Intel Mac Mini (which is $1,299 with 16GB RAM). Seems like a perfect fit with the Studio display, giving a $2,898 combo to replace the 27" iMac.

Maybe the profit margin doesn't work for Apple, or maybe the MacBook Pro is sucking up all of the M1 Pro chip production capacity? Apart from that, it seems like it would be a big seller for Apple.
 
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Spock said:
My thoughts are that the basic M1 chip will get a slight spec bump for a new MacBook Air, Mac mini and iMac reserving the first M2 chips for the MacBook Pro and Mac Studio systems. I think that if the M2 was ready, it would have been in the Studio that was just released.
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You are confusing generations (M1 vs M2) with scaling up with in 1 generation.

They can't give the M1 a specbump, well maybe up the clock a bit and they won't redo the layout beyond what they have done sofar (M1Pro/Max/Ultra).

M2 will be the next generation with performance for the plain version sitting clearly below even the binned down M1Pro. This will be the chip for the Mini, iMac and lowend MacBookWhatever with higher core count versions coming later.

So a M2 based Studio would have been (and will be) a 2023 or even early 2024 product.
 
Kuo, "I have no $%#@ing clue about what I’m predicting, but as long as morons exist who believe everything I say, and quote me in their websites, I will keep spewing out my total nonsense."
 
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I'm fine with fall 2022 or early 2023, since my old 8 GB 2014 dual-core Mac mini runs OK for what I need to do with it. I can notice some lags here and there, but it's not bad, since this is a business app machine. And it runs Monterey. Maybe it won't get the next version of macOS, but Monterey will be fine until 2024 or so anyway.

I'm not going to buy an oversized Mac Studio, since I don't need that performance or 32 GB, and I definitely don't want to spend the coin on it. BTW, Mac Studio doesn't fit under my 30" Cinema HD Display either.

BTW, it seems some of the members here misunderstand Ming-Chi Kuo. He has deep insight into Apple's supply chain, but not necessarily Apple itself. So yes he is making educating guesses, but it's based on real supply chain information.
 
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Spock said:
My thoughts are that the basic M1 chip will get a slight spec bump for a new MacBook Air, Mac mini and iMac reserving the first M2 chips for the MacBook Pro and Mac Studio systems. I think that if the M2 was ready, it would have been in the Studio that was just released. I also think they should add a graphite option to the iMac with black bezels and an M1 Pro.
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The M2 will be ready for mass production before the M2 Pro. Why? Because of chip yields. There is always a risk that one of the CPU or GPU cores won't meet specifications when they test it. If the processor has more cores, there is a greater risk that one of them will fail. So early on, when the risk is highest, they will be manufacturing processors with the fewest cores... If they release a M2 Pro/max/ultra that means that they intentionally held inventory of the M2 back and continued to sell M1 devices even though the M2 ones were ready. That would make zero sense as the M2 likely won't outperform an M1 Pro in anything but a single threaded CPU workload. The M2 isn't on the upgrade path for someone who has an M1 Pro. The idea that the M2 Ultra could have been the first M2 chip is ludicrous.
 
Well, that means I'm probably going to have to just go ahead and get the M1 mini then. I was going to wait until the M2 was released to replace my 2012 mini but don't want to wait until next year since my 2012 is stuck on Catalina and I believe this will be the last year for security updates. But I guess if my 2012 can handle my workload the M1 should do just fine.
 
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paradox00 said:
The M2 will be ready for mass production before the M2 Pro. Why? Because of chip yields. There is always a risk that one of the CPU or GPU cores won't meet specifications when they test it. If the processor has more cores, there is a greater risk that one of them will fail. So early on, when the risk is highest, they will be manufacturing processors with the fewest cores... If they release a M2 Pro/max/ultra that means that they intentionally held inventory of the M2 back and continued to sell M1 devices even though the M2 ones were ready. That would make zero sense as the M2 likely won't outperform an M1 Pro in anything but a single threaded CPU workload. The M2 isn't on the upgrade path for someone who has an M1 Pro. The idea that the M2 Ultra could have been the first M2 chip is ludicrous.
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The issue that they will run into is the M2 sounds more powerful than the M1 and I think that it will cause confusion despite the Pro/Max/Ultra naming. Yeah, they did it with the iPad but the Mac is not the same. I think certain users won't buy an M1 Pro/Max/Ultra if the entry level devices are using the M2 because it will seem as though the M2 Pro/Max/Ultra would be on the horizon. I think that starting the M2 in a consumer device will have an Osborne effect.
 
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Bug-Creator said:
If the M2 is build on 4nm it will share the core IP with A16 which would mean that it was never planned to ship before October.
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Why is that? There is no guarantee or evidence to support M2 uses A16 architecture.
 
Spock said:
I think certain users won't buy an M1 Pro/Max/Ultra if the entry level devices are using the M2 because it will seem as though the M2 Pro/Max/Ultra would be on the horizon. I think that starting the M2 in a consumer device will have an Osborne effect.
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Sure, but some things can't be helped and costumers always sitting on the fence because the next big thing might come soon isn't really a new think.

Also most people in the market for a MacBookProperPro or Studio know very well what is what and those that don't might not even notice as Apple does not put the SoC into the product name.
 
JPack said:
Why is that? There is no guarantee or evidence to support M2 uses A16 architecture.
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I was replying to a claim that M2 would be fabbed in 4nm and it makes 0 sense to shrink down an old design (A14 or A15) from 5nm when the new one is already on 4nm (A16 must be quite advanced at this time to be shipping in millions of iPhone in 6 months).

If M2 is based on A15 it will be 5nm, otherwise 4nm AND A16 it is.
 
bradman83 said:
As someone else pointed out if the M2 is 4nm then it's based off of the A16 core design not the A15, so it was always planned for this fall. A likely schedule would be:

Fall 2022 - M2 MBA and/or M2 13" MBP, possibly refreshed 24" iMac
Spring 2023 - M2 Pro/Max launch with refreshed 14" & 16" MBP, Mini updated to M2, M2 Pro option.
Fall 2023 - M2 Ultra launches in refreshed Mac Studio.

The Mac Pro gets in there somewhere but I suspect that will be treated more like a niche product with highly custom chips.

Apple seems to be settling into a rhythm of launching a product with the basic consumer chip and letting demand settle for six months, then launching the next product and/or more powerful chip and letting demand settle with an 18-24 month update cycle for each generation.
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This reminds me of the people who insisted MacBook Pro 14/16 would have to be based on A15 cores simply because of timing.

M2 can be A15 or A16. TSMC N4 is a direct optical shrink. Customers can use existing N5 libraries to design a 4nm chip no effort.
 
Bug-Creator said:
I was replying to a claim that M2 would be fabbed in 4nm and it makes 0 sense to shrink down an old design (A14 or A15) from 5nm when the new one is already on 4nm (A16 must be quite advanced at this time to be shipping in millions of iPhone in 6 months).

If M2 is based on A15 it will be 5nm, otherwise 4nm AND A16 it is.
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One of the biggest advantages of N4 is that it’s a direct optical shrink of N5 which means they can take an existing design and shrink it with very little effort.

If Apple is having problems taping out M2, they can shrink M1 which would provide minor relief on the roadmap.
 
I just can't see an iMac Pro happening now we have Mac Studio. Apple desktop strategy now seems to be:

Consumer:
iMac
Mac mini

Prosumer:
Mac Studio

Professional:
Mac Pro
 
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