Like everyone else here, I enjoy trying to guess what the announcements will be. I also enjoy guessing the outline and tricks of the presentation. Nothing necessarily original here. Just want to record my predictions so that when I nail every single one, I am remembered as god-like.
What will be covered today?
50% on iCloud, 25% on iOS 5, and 25% on OSX Lion. These will overlap of course and bleed into each other. The next iPhone won't be mentioned today. Nor will new iPods, new iPads or new Macs.
How will Steve "sell" us on iCloud (and iOS 5 and OSX)?
He will sell us on it by talking about what Amazon and Google have tried - but failed, in his opinion - to deliver in their cloud offerings. He will essentially tell us what we want, expect and need in cloud computing, and explain how Amazon and Google fail to do it despite large ongoing subscription fees (for people with lots of content).
What will Steve say the purpose of "cloud computing" is for the average person?
Access, stream, change, save and protect your data regardless of where you are physically, and regardless of what computing device you are using.
Where - physically - will the cloud be?
A local cloud - Time Capsule - overcomes copyright problems (such as illegally secured music and movies) for Apple. It overcomes uploading problems for users with massive amounts of media. It overcomes frustrating, perpetual subscription fees for cloud services. (Think about how much Apple would charge you for uploading a terabyte of media that you want to be able to stream any time you'd like.) It ends the need to do a wired synch if the local cloud - again, Time Capsule - is able to automatically grab and save for you large downloads, such as operating system updates, until you are ready to have it pushed onto your iOS device. But it means your Time Capsule/Internet must always be on. It means you have to buy hardware. It doesn't get your content off-site, meaning it is more susceptible to loss, such as fire, flooding, drive failure.
If the cloud is hardware in your house - Time Capsule - then what is the purpose of Apple's massive new data center? Perhaps the data center is merely for your off-site backup, such as what Carbonite does; you can upload everything to the data center, but not stream any of it. You'd just have it backed up to there.
What data (documents, photographs, music, movies, TV shows) of yours will be allowed in the cloud?
Everything.
What will be the method for getting your stuff into the cloud?
Automatic backups to your Time Capsule. As long as the device you are computing on has iOS 5 or OSX Lion, and the iCloud "switch" in the 'on' position, as you manipulate it, changes are immediately made to the Time Capsule data.
What will be the method for getting your stuff from the cloud?
Wi-fi and 3G. However, I think you will only be able to access TV shows and movies when you are on wi-fi.
Questions:
Where does this leave MobileMe?
I have no idea. The new cloud renders much of MobileMe unnecessary, such as iDisk, but what about things like your .me or .mac email account, your calendar synching, or your "find my iPhone" features? I have no idea. Maybe the stuff that is not affected by the cloud becomes free.
Where does this leave traditional iTunes?
The iTunes interface allows you to access all kinds of information on your media, and allows you to build playlists ("smart" and regular) based upon a litany of tagging information. It's hard to see this system being changed too dramatically. However, iTunes hasn't been upgraded significantly in years. So, like changes to MobileMe, I really have no idea what changes there will substantively be to iTunes.
Will the keynote have anything "sexy?"
Cloud computing, Time Capsule and an iOS update are cool and all, but hopefully there will be some new sexy gadget of some sort. For example, maybe iOS 5 will work on Apple TV, and allow for apps/gaming on your TV, using your iPhone/iPod Touch as a remote/game controller.
What will be the excitement over iOS 5?
In addition to what is said immediately above, iOS 5 will revamp notifications. iOS 5 apps will work on OSX Lion. iOS 5 devices will be able to seamlessly access OSX Lion devices, like gotomypc.com.
What will be the excitement over Lion?
In addition to what is said immediately above, OSX Lion will allow very easy access to other OSX Lion devices. ("Back to my Mac" will loose its name but be much stronger and more user friendly.) FaceTime/iChat technology will be enhanced and work on both Macs and PCs; it will become more friendly across all platforms and all devices and go after the gotomeeting.com market.
At the end of the day, so to speak, what will Steve Jobs be asking us to buy?
A new Time Capsule. Currently, Time Capsules are $299 for one terabyte and $499 for two terabytes. They want to get an entry price below $200, so either the one-terabyte will drop to $199, or they will introduce a half-terabyte for $199. Every $100 over that doubles in storage. They will also want you to buy Lion, which will be $79. iOS 5 will be free but not go back farther than iPhone 3GS. He will not be asking us to buy into a subscription plan except, perhaps, for an modest annual subscription for simple (only) backup of your stuff to the data center ($20 per 100 gigs of data).
The new time capsules, and iCloud, will be available immediately. IOS 5 will come out in July, and Lion will come out in September.
Who will perform a song at the end of the keynote?
Someone very, very boring.