Last Minute WWDC Notes...

[Savage Henry]

It's a reasonably little known fact ....

During the closing 30 minutes of trading on Friday, an additional 500,000 shares were purchased - a quarter of them in the closing minutes, pushing the price up a staggering 20¢ !!

Perhaps those Nasdeq Nerds know something that we don't.

Or perhaps, nice shiney silver screens are going to save Apple and all who sail in her !!??

Rest assured, the company is saved!!!

 

[JFreak]

Apple can never have more marketshare than microsoft.

it all depends on the market segmentation - in my household apple has 100% market share, and within my friends in music & video industry the very same figure applies. also, within my tech friends both companies have 0% market share since all servers run linux.

it is just the businesses that keep on supporting microsoft no matter how insecure the system would be. there was once a saying that "nobody gets fired for buying an ibm", and nowadays they tend to think about microsoft the same way. it is just a bad habit that is as difficult to break as smoking.

thank god for apple ipods, they have shown young people that there actually is an alternative. here in finland many have considered buying an apple within the last two years just because the wow-factor of ipods. (not to mention that ipods are very high priced in here, so the apple brand gets instant cool factor because not everyone can afford one.)

 

[oingoboingo]

Not really, I mean how many people do you know that have switched to a PC?! I don't know anyone, and I know many PC users that would switch if only Macs wren't so expensive.

I actually know quite a few ex-university biologists (who are now in the biotech sector) who used Macs while at university (because they were supplied by the department), but ditched them as soon as they possibly could when starting their own company. I also have friends in graphic design who started out on Macs, but moved across to PCs later on in their careers, and are quite happy in Wintel land. Switching does flow both ways. In fact, now that I think about it, I know more people who have gone from Mac to PC, rather than the other way around. Maybe it's something that happens to frustrated university scientists when they get into the private sector.

Price is the key here, Apple can only rape our wallets so much before we start to have enough, and while they do how do they expect people to join the ranks?

I would NEVER use a PC unless I was forced too, every aspect of them is horrid and sloppy, and Macs are creative powerfull and in all user aspects PERFECT. But my bank account isn't as limitless as Steves.

I agree. If Apples were cheaper, then we would see a lot more people switching. But they aren't, and I can't really see Apple getting into the budget arena. They seem quite content to stay at the premium end of the market, making nice margins on nice hardware. The marketshare tells the story. Approximately 98% of the market (insert your favourite marketshare estimate...they're all between 90% and 99% somewhere) says "Thanks, but not at that price".

 

[CholEoptera36]

The marketshare is important there's no doubt about it. It has a lot of sides so I wish I knew more about it. But I do know that more people do have PC's then Macs, and even as fast as they burn em there are more people including those that trashed their old ones that are hooking up with new ones everyday. Studdies done by TechTV (not sure how reliable) show that most new computer buyers buy PC's. Perhaps it has something to do with avalability, like seeing them every time they go into Best Buy for instance. I dunno for sure, but it does seem evident that there are more people getting PC's then Macs, even if they don't last as long. And I agree the MS habbit is a tough one for businesses to break. Also Apple only reaches out to certain types of businesses, a lot of which are in graphic design fields. That doesn't necessarily win over a lot of long time MS business owners who want those products.

On a personal oppinion which can't be varified lol:
I think there are a few main factors in buyers market on computers, and it's not much different then many other markets.
-Popularity. As stupid as this may sound, there are lots of people who buy products because of the name and popularity. This is a good reliable source of where MS holds is shares. Also how MS gets a lot of people comming back, as long as they stay popular that is.
-Cost. No matter how hard you try to argue an Apple is better all round then a PC, people will always be price concous. Even if it means sacrifice in the long run. Doesn't mean you're getting a better deal with MS, or Apple for that matter. I've had a 600$ PC run for over three years with no problems (no joke). So cost is a big issue, no matter if it's a car, house, or computer. Especially computers cause they're not as much of a need to live off of to some people, so they naturally want what's cheaper. Especially if they feel secure that it will deliver the performance they need. And what most people need isn't always necessarily a professional solution...
-Performance. The battles will always rage on who has a better computer, but most people are influenced by TV, schools, work, and other places that PC's work just fine. And in most cases they do. Most people only use Instant messengers, browsers, multimedia playback devices and email clients. On the whole PC's really don't have any 'problems' with that. So as far as home computers go, there's not a big deal with major probs in that catagory so buyers remain happy.

I think these are some good reasons why Microsoft keeps their shares like they do. If Apple gets to the point where their computers sell for less, then people are more willing to listen to how well they perform. And the more popular they become (especially like among youth, like the iPod example) the more buyers will follow. The tides can change for us, but it just takes a lot sometimes to change something so big. It's true that Apple is less then 10%, some sources say 5-7%. But hey things can change... Just depends on how Apple takes MS to the challenge.

Anyway, my two cents worth lol

 

[oingoboingo]

It is all a matter of timing. Right now, maybe 98% are plain wrong and we are right, and 98% are just plain victims of better marketing. Never forget, a lot of spam got sold, but eventually the GI marketing spin had its day and now we all pay more to eat steak!

Perhaps. Microsoft FUD, lack of user knowledge and ingrained myths about Macs from 10 years ago are still widespread. But what if a big chunk of those 98% know the real story with modern Macs, but they just don't see enough benefit in a Mac to switch? My girlfriend uses PCs all day at work (she's in finance, so it's Excel and a bunch of custom in-house apps on Windows 2000), but at home we only have my G5 and my PowerBook. She uses the Macs without a problem, and likes Mac OS X, but her response is "yeah the Mac is nice, but I get my work done just as well on my Windows 2000 machine at the office. I can take the Mac or leave it...it doesn't matter to me". The point is that Windows is 'good enough' for plenty of people. They aren't going to switch, even Apple slashed the prices of their entire lineup to backyard whitebox PC vendor prices tomorrow.

 

[CholEoptera36]

The point is that Windows is 'good enough' for plenty of people.

This is a good point, when you put it in that perspective it's still hard for Mac to sell over PC even if the slashed the prices. It would be 'easier' no doubt, but wouldn't necessarily win the masses over. And I have to agree with your gf, PC's have always worked just fine for me too. Macs are like, a lexus to me compared to a Honda as the PC. If given the option between the two, the lexus is smarter, smoother, and much more expensive. But the Honda gets me where I gotta go and is thousands less. (I hate using those car analogies but it just seemed right this time).

 

[SiliconAddict]

Wooo hooo Apple price gouging their customers yet again! Think different! Think expensive!

 

[mactarkus]

Let today be the day!

Here's another person (im)patiently waiting since Macworld for a Rev 2 G5. It finally came but without the much needed, matching Cinema Display. I held off yet again, because if I was going to spend $5K, it had to be perfect. As for that marketshare discussion, it's too bad there's no way to track computers in use regardless of age. I have 100+ Macs in my house -- that might tilt the numbers in our direction

 

[oingoboingo]

People are always talking about Microsoft having 90+% marketshare. Can you please tell me where most of that 90% is at and how it is used? I think we need to be more realistic about marketshare. If most of that 90% is win 95-98 and being used in a business or a home that does not upgrade or buy new software then who cares how much marketshare they have? Apple needs to tell us the real numbers on marketshare because I think Apple must be doing pretty well to still have such an effect on the rest of the industry.

This is a controversial one, but I'll throw it out there anyway. Google's May Zeitgeist (http://www.google.com.au/press/zeitgeist.html) shows that 50% of browsers which accessed their site announced themselves as running on Windows XP. The next highest number was Windows 98 at 20%, then Windows 2000 at 17%. MacOS and Windows NT were even at 3% each, then Windows 95 and Linux at 1% each. 'Other' accounted for 5%. So taking Google's figures at face value, the 'modern' Windows variants (ie: based on the NT core) account for a total of 70% of all operating systems accessing Google's site.

Apples marketshare may be low, but I do think that their computers are used much more than some PC in a server closet. Also, people buy many more PC's than macs but they also throw away more PC's than Macs. Does anyone count this in their figures? Apple can never have more marketshare than microsoft, but it can compete with the marketshare of companies that make PC's....someday, if they start selling business computers.

Everything that I've personally seen, and certainly read about over the past 5 years or so would suggest that the 'server closet' migration is most definitely towards x86 systems, particularly those running Linux. Just because it has an Intel or AMD chip in it doesn't mean it's a wheezy little whitebox. 4-way x86 servers are common. 8, 16 and even 32 way x86-based servers are all available. Apple does not currently sell anything larger than 2-way SMP, and has no 'blade' product at all (1U is not the same as a blade cabinet). Apple may be making some inroads into the server room, but it's still very much dominated by the traditional big-iron Unix players (IBM, Sun, HP) and increasingly Windows/Linux on x86. At a guess, I would say Apple's server room penetration was even lower than its desktop share.

 

[Windowlicker]

there is no way for apple to keep the same prices.. it would suck so much major ass.

 

[Sly]

Why no Quicktime stream?

Is there any good reason for Apple not having a live stream of this event?

 

[Skiniftz]

Is there any good reason for Apple not having a live stream of this event?

Would you want to stand up in front of the Internet and admit you were bulsh1tting about Dual 3GHz?

 

[Mr. Anderson]

Instead, based on sources, it appears that the revised 20" and 23" displays will keep their current prices, and the 30" will be introduced at above $3000.

That's just not right - and I hope its wrong.....

Apple has always charged a premium, but there are limits - I'm thinking if they continue with the current pricing they're really going to be testing those limits.

D

 

[silvergunuk]

Damn You All To Hell

Thanx Icekey for the post, you got me so excited that I think I just **** my pants!

 

[bathysphere]

Would you want to stand up in front of the Internet and admit you were bulsh1tting about Dual 3GHz?

hahahahaha
and yeah, the projected display pricing is lame. i was considering buying another 20 inch apple display, but if this is true i'm going to start looking at cheaper alternatives.

 

[ChrisH3677]

Is there any good reason for Apple not having a live stream of this event?

Yeah - why pay to go if you can see it on the 'net?

What's the benefit to Apple to stream it? Zip. In fact, it costs them to do it, and it devalues WWDC.

If they announce something really big this year, but don't stream - do you think attendance numbers will go up or down next year?

 

[drizahy4]

I will not consider the apple display as much as I swear by them until the prices are right. I might at well just go to gateway.com and grab a 42 inch plasma screen for $2000. TV plus VGA thats a no brainer for me. These displays better have something more then just and apple logo on it for me to get one.

BTW prices for the gateway lcd screens are
23" =$1499
26" =$1999
30" =$3000

So get cracking on that apple.

 

[webplummer]

Apologies to the thread for my having not read it, and this was probably covered already.

First of all... A 30" display made by Apple that's intended to be competitive? Other 30" LCDs cost roughly the same at bestbuy and they're not made by Apple. So who's buying them? Not me, certainly. Too rich for my blood, and I would want a 42" (lcd) if I were planning on hanging it on the wall. Now that, for $3k, that would be a good deal.

I'm guessing there is something extra to these displays. Not just the typical Apple shine, but an additional feature that can't be had in any other large display. Perhaps the DVD is built-in, or the thing is also an Airport/Airtunes base station? Maybe it's got a digital cable-in port which converts it all to firewire and streams to an Apple-flavored Tivo software?

All kind of pie-in-the-sky, I realize. But Apple's done a good job of bundling features in their products lately. They've gotten smart about how that spreads their technologies. iTunes download gets you Quicktime. Airtunes gets you Airport. Is it so absurd to thing they'll be bundling another Trojan horse technology here?

Now, about the "why the hell won't anybody switch" thing. An earlier poster said that his girlfriend noted that her PC at work "does what she needs it to." I would add to that that people, for the most part, bring this sentiment home when they purchase a computer. The PC works good enough at the office, it's a known quantity (very important here) and I'll just go with what I know. For these reasons, I think, many don't even consider a Mac, or talk themselves out of it when they see the price is twice as high (superficially, I know. Let's not turn this into a comparison thread), remember all the 10-year-old arguments against Macs, and don't want to take a chance on something that may be considered a lust object—conspicuous consumption.

I would also note that many of the Google Zeitgeist numbers are probably for web access while people are at work. Note the usage trends and how they dive on the weekends. I think there are still many people who put up with a PC at work and use a Mac at home. So are they Mac users or PC users?

So for that reason, I would say that the corporate world is probably the most important one for Apple to make headway in. If they can make and market computers to corporate customers which meet their needs as good or better than their current setup, and cost in the same ballpark of what they were planning for IT expenses, I think you would see the Google Zeitgeist numbers, and the Mac share numbers go up dramatically.

apologies for the long post.

 

[joeboy_45101]

I've been thinking and Steve might introduce two iPods today. One being the HP branded iPod and a new iPod Ultra or Super iPod. That would give us the iPod mini, as entry level, the HP iPod, as mid-level, and the Super iPod, as high-level. Apple doesn't want to compete with HP on a their own product, so it would make sense for Apple to intro a new iPod and then leave HP to handle the marketing of the current one.

 

[DGFan]

if the 20" was $999 then theres not point of a 30" @ $2999. i could buy 3 20" with the price of 1 30"

So? For the high end brands you can buy two 17" screens for the price of one 20" screen. It doesn't scale linearly with number of pixels.

 

[Zaty]

Will today turn out great or disappointing?

With only four hours to go, what do you think, will we be happy after the keynote or will we be disappointed with the things Apple is going to announce/preview? I'm a bit sceptical but I hope that Tiger will be a great new OS X version. Perhpas Apple surprises us with new hardware other than the long-awaited displays.

 

[JeffTL]

This is a good point, when you put it in that perspective it's still hard for Mac to sell over PC even if the slashed the prices. It would be 'easier' no doubt, but wouldn't necessarily win the masses over. And I have to agree with your gf, PC's have always worked just fine for me too. Macs are like, a lexus to me compared to a Honda as the PC. If given the option between the two, the lexus is smarter, smoother, and much more expensive. But the Honda gets me where I gotta go and is thousands less. (I hate using those car analogies but it just seemed right this time).

Tell me, then. Is the iBook "more expensive" than a comparable 12" Windows laptop with a decent battery? That wasn't the case last May when I made the switch. I needed a small computer and name brand Wintel laptops seemed comparatively overpriced -- particularly if I wanted one that was neither from a company I was boycotting (rhymes with "Hell" and ripped me off on a mismarketed sound card) nor had a reputation with bad batteries (think about cows).

 

[ChrisH3677]

So for that reason, I would say that the corporate world is probably the most important one for Apple to make headway in. If they can make and market computers to corporate customers which meet their needs as good or better than their current setup, and cost in the same ballpark of what they were planning for IT expenses, I think you would see the Google Zeitgeist numbers, and the Mac share numbers go up dramatically.

Agree 100%. As an IT Manager of an organization running 100 odd PCs, I couldn't even begin to consider Macs because there was no model that fitted my specs and budget.

Apple - bring on a cMac!

PS I am now looking at a thin-client path for my organization so our money will probably be not going to Dell or Apple, but rather Wyse. Tho I'm sure it won't be long before Dell jump on that bandwagon which is beginning to gain some momentum. Tho, I may consider buying up old flat panel iMacs in a couple of years to solely run Windows sessions!

 

[Warbrain]

With only four hours to go, what do you think, will we be happy after the keynote or will we be disappointed with the things Apple is going to announce/preview? I'm a bit sceptical but I hope that Tiger will be a great new OS X version. Perhpas Apple surprises us with new hardware other than the long-awaited displays.

there will always be disappointment since apple will never release the PDA, they'll never release another Cube, and they'll never release the iMac G5 any time soon. The only thing that I could see being released other than the displays is a powerbook, but that's not going to happen any time soon.

 

[joeboy_45101]

Tell me, then. Is the iBook "more expensive" than a comparable 12" Windows laptop with a decent battery? That wasn't the case last May when I made the switch. I needed a small computer and name brand Wintel laptops seemed comparatively overpriced -- particularly if I wanted one that was neither from a company I was boycotting (rhymes with "Hell" and ripped me off on a mismarketed sound card) nor had a reputation with bad batteries (think about cows).

I saved about $500 by going with the iBook. I'd been wanting to make the switch for a long time and the oppurtunity came for me to purchase a laptop. I have nothing but praise for my iBook, and I know that whatever happens today I'm still going to be crazy for Apple.