I'm fairly certain that market forces alone would prevent your worst case scenario (the occasional sale notwithstanding).
Most people, I'm convinced, will continue to use the App Store just as most people use the Play Store on Android. The developer in your 24.99 scenario is probably pricing themselves out of the market.
The real question is probably whether App a Store apps could offer different payment providers price those differently?
Press here for Apple Pay: 1.49
Press here for PayPal: 0.99
That in itself would spell massive trouble for Apple's pricing.
While my .99 vs 24.99 was obviously an extreme case it is by no means unlikely. If a dev decides they want the vast majority of their sales to go through their store then they price their app in the Apple store at a ridiculous price and "force" users to their store.
For me... Apple store, Apple payment processing, alt-store can use who ever they want. Charge whatever real cost difference is necessary but I do not want want to be forced by legislation to have to give all my personal and payment info to umpteen different entities.
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