Will the Amazon or Walmart's 2022 iPad 10.2" Wi-Fi 64GB be sold at $249 when the 2023 model comes out?
The 2021 model's sold at that price point
$269 was more like the sale price that would pop up for the 9th (2021) gen periodically. For example, Last Black Friday / Cyber Monday in 2022 :

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This $245 is a 'firesale'. ( started showing up in August 2023 ) . If the 10th gen sticks around, it is doubtful it will fall quite that low right away.
P.S. Apple kept a seriously comatose 'edu' iMac ( non retina) around well past the point it went 'stale'. It isn't a sure than that the 9th Gen is going to completely disappear. ( If Apple has some susbtantive 'long contract' buyers , it may stick around and the 11 would drop in at the higher 10th gen price point. If the 9th gen stuck around for yet another year then that $245 price probably would keep popping back up on major non-Apple retailer sites. )