Low Cost 2GB and 4GB iPods - at MWSF 2004?

[JoeRadar]

Wow! great summary dongmin. I think you hit the nail(s) on the head. I just want to amplify two points:

Originally posted by dongmin
-mass mass production
-smaller profit margin

First, Apple is in the unusual position of being the market leader, and this means that Apple, more than anyone else, can benefit from economies of scale.

Second, if Apple's iTMS will be profitable in the future, then accepting lower profit margins on iPods today to increase the customer base of iTMS tomorrow makes sense.

PS. I still haven't figured out the possible issue of locking in customers with iPod, iTunes, iTMS, and AAC despite AAC being an open standard. How portable will a song purchased from iTMS be to other jukebox software?

 

[dho]

Re: Re: No one's mentioned the AAC angle.

Originally posted by JoeRadar
How does that fit in with the "authorizing' and "deauthorizing" of a computer?

Suppose Napster supports AAC. Can I switch to Napster's jukebox software and keep all my songs purchased from iTMS in the Napster software?

Once you can decode it with your account and password its an open codec . All the encryption does is scramble some of the bits to make it sound bad when you try to bypass it. About the napster part of your question, yes you could if apple let you know how they work the drm ellement.

 

[ITR 81]

Re: Re: Re: Colored iPods

Originally posted by gwuMACaddict
i agree... i dont think i like this idea at all... and honestly, how many people really have music collections this small? i dont know anyone that has less than 4 gigs of music... i'd rather see them keep the same sizes, but make them cheaper.

I know alot of kids with less then a 1 GB of music.

People in this area are happy to have a couple hrs of music on them then 40hrs or more.

 

[blueBomber]

I say they will come in at $199. It's the next logical step down in Apple's pricing scheme, and it would still allow for a fairly good profit.

 

[ccuilla]

Originally posted by SiliconAddict
I want to beleve that Apple is going to release a competitvly priced product.

Apple is already selling a competitively priced product. They just are not selling one that is currently priced in the low range.

For everyone that says iPod is too expensive...pop (errr...Pod) quiz:

How much less capacity do the cheaper MP3 players have than Apple's 10GB iPod (at $300)?

Answer: about 1/40th!

Get 1/40th the capacity of the iPod for 1/2 the price! Great slogan.

Still, I agree that Apple needs to find some way to address the segment of the market that simply doesn't HAVE $300.

 

[arn]

Originally posted by desdomg
Interesting circular reporting going on here.

AtAT posts the original rumour, which is then picked up by MacRumors. Appleinsider then quotes MacRumors as support for its own speculation on the subject. And now MacRumors quotes Appleinsider as further support for the rumour.

Actually,

You are not reading it correctly.

There is a difference between "rumors" and "speculation". You seem to think Appleinsider is just "speculating" (ie, guessing) about it and using MacRumors as support.

It's not as inbred as you suggest. Here are the distinct and independent "rumors"

1) MacRumors reports that there is a 2GB mini iPod making the rounds link
2) AtAT reports that they've heard that low-end iPods at MWSF link
3) Appleinsider reports that they have heard of 2GB and 4GB iPods in Jan link

These are all distinct "reports". None are pure speculation. Referencing the other reports is simply for reference/filler.

Obviously if some random Joe writes... "I think there are going to be low end iPods at MWSF because MacRumors said so." then I'm not going to reference them as confirmation of the rumor.

Do you see the difference?

arn

 

[dho]

Originally posted by blueBomber
I say they will come in at $199. It's the next logical step down in Apple's pricing scheme, and it would still allow for a fairly good profit.

If they wanted it to not have some sort of seperation from the current models, that would be a very good idea.

From what the rumors says it seems more likely that they would want to differentiate the two kinds of ipods more.

149
99

^ would fit well for that scenario

 

[ITR 81]

The only way AAC will work on another device that supports AAC is in it's unprotected format.

I have recently just start importing under AAC at 160kbps and it simply beats the hell out of MP3's at 160kps.

I can't even tell the difference even on a high quality THX sound sys.

 

[ccuilla]

Originally posted by JoeRadar
Second, if Apple's iTMS will be profitable in the future, then accepting lower profit margins on iPods today to increase the customer base of iTMS tomorrow makes sense.

Bzzzt! Wrong answer, but thanks for playing. I doubt Apple will ever make any real money from the iTMS. They hope to have it pay for itself (break even) which they are roughly doing now. So it is not costing them anything. But let's play some games here...Apple is somehow able to get 50 cents PROFIT from every song sold on the iTMS. They sell 100 millions songs a year. This is $50M profit a year. Not bad.

But that is ASSUMING they can squeeze 50 cents profit from every song. Seem VERY unlikely to happen.

Apple sells 2 million iPods a year with an average profit margin of $100. That's $200M profit.

Apple is giving away the blades to sell the razors. This is important for anyone to understand, lest we suggest they begin giving away the razors too.

 

[mclosers]

Comercial

Imagine it now... During the super bowl. Mini Me(Verne Troyer) and Yao Ming( tallest player in the NBA) walk down the street Yao with the now iPod JR(or whatever it will be called) and Verne with the iPod. Then they break out dancing and singing to the song on there iPods.... It would be a classic Yao and Verne singing together

 

[gothamac]

Originally posted by arn
Actually,

You are not reading it correctly.

There is a difference between "rumors" and "speculation". You seem to think Appleinsider is just "speculating" (ie, guessing) about it and using MacRumors as support.

It's not as inbred as you suggest. Here are the distinct and independent "rumors"

1) MacRumors reports that there is a 2GB mini iPod making the rounds
2) AtAT reports that they've heard that low-end iPods at MWSF
3) Appleinsider reports that they have heard of 2GB and 4GB iPods in Jan

These are all distinct "reports". None are pure speculation. Referencing the other reports is simply for reference/filler.

arn

...or you can do things the Macosrumors way. Post once every week or two the news everybody else has been talking about the previous week (or two) then beg for money.

 

[gothamac]

miniPod

 

[skytown205]

Better than varieties of colors in plastic would be varieties of colors in backlighting, user-selectable from among the ipod commercial/website colors to fit one's particular mood, and with the ability, perhaps, to cycle through on its own.

But colored plastic? Ives wouldn't put his stamp on that one I think.

Of course I could be wrong.

 

[ccuilla]

I've been thinking about the colors a bit (and the "white look"). White is likely to go away soon. Apple is a very fashion concious company. The colors this time around are likely to be deeper, not fruity. See the iPod ads as the likely palette to be used.

Better yet, I like the idea (someone already mentioned) of replaceable faceplates (a la Nokia phones). This is a great idea! Talk about turning a device into a "movement". The thing will be how you have customized YOUR iPod. Will it be a Green Bay Packers face plate? Flat black? Paisley? Hello Kitty? Whatever. This will really get people emotionally attached to their iPods. Now...try getting emotionally attached to a Dell DJ.

 

[technocoy]

hmmm...

I'm worried about the "variety of colours."

I would never buy a pink iPod.

these replies baffle me.

alright then, so don't buy a pink iPod.
but there are millions of girls who will.

apple doesn't make the iPod just for you.

no offense.

 

[ccuilla]

Re: hmmm...

Originally posted by technocoy
apple doesn't make the iPod just for you.

So "amen" to that I couldn't post it fast enough!

 

[revenuee]

Re: hmmm...

Originally posted by technocoy
these replies baffle me.

alright then, so don't buy a pink iPod.
but there are millions of girls who will.

apple doesn't make the iPod just for you.

no offense.

True that...


I'm curious though the iPod is white ... does the white turn yellow like so many of the white electronics of the past

 

[ccuilla]

I just had a thought. Does anyone recall the patent Apple filed that had something to do with the changing the color of the exterior covering a computer device?

What if this comes on the new iPod Jr.?

Color changes on demand? With music? Something crazy like that?

 

[blueBomber]

Originally posted by ccuilla
Color changes on demand? With music? Something crazy like that?

Now THAT is how you speculate! I think that is about as far fetched as they come.

 

[Makosuke]

I'm glad someone pointed out the possible tie-in with the Pepsi promotion, but I'm surprised nobody else is guessing at another possible reason mini-iPods aren't on sale for Christmas:

They aren't ready yet!

I'm sure there are plenty of people here just not saying it, but apparently a lot of folks seem to think that Apple can produce perfect products at will. Reality, unfortunately, requires things like development time and testing, ramping up production lines, having the correct parts available from suppliers, component prices reaching the point at which they can be sold at an appropriate price point, and being able to meet potentially considerable demand (instead of pre-announcing something that isn't shipping in quantity).

My guess is something like this: They're still working out the details, and the smaller HDs aren't ready yet, but they'll make great MWSF fodder, and tie in perfectly with the Pepsi thing, perhaps as a chunk of the prizes.

Also, I'm very skeptical about them using the recently discussed micro-HD technology--everything I'm seeing about that puts it as not being ready until late next year (not that Apple couldn't swing something special with Toshiba) and as being very expensive, hence more targeted at high-end cellphones.

What seems a lot more likely is just a cheaper, lower-capacity 1.8" HD--maybe one or both sides of a 4GB platter for 2 and 4GB versions or something. The form factor might be similar to the current ones, but if they can manage this at a good price point--I love the $100 idea, but I'd be happy with $150, and even that sounds like it'd be a stretch--by cutting corners (no external HD use, for example), and differentiate it with fun colors, then it could happen.

Personally, I'm hoping for this--I only have about 3GB of music, and even 2GB is plenty for me--do I seriously need more than 30 hours of tunes in my pocket? No. Even a plane trip to Tokyo is under 20 hours, and I seem to make due with 5 hours of CDs at this point.

At $100, I'd even be able to justify the purchase, whereas $300 is just too much for me to reason, since I don't commute or jog much.

Last thought: It'd be just like Apple to introduce colors to electronics, then kill them, then resurrect them again.

By the way--how about colored meta instead of plasticl? Apple apparently did research into it a while ago...

 

[ccuilla]

Originally posted by blueBomber
Now THAT is how you speculate! I think that is about as far fetched as they come.

Thank you. Thank you. [humbly bows before the audience]

 

[blueBomber]

Re: Re: hmmm...

Originally posted by revenuee
True that...


I'm curious though the iPod is white ... does the white turn yellow like so many of the white electronics of the past

It shouldn't, I believe it's the same plastic that was used in the G4 casing, and I've yet to see a yellowed G4 (unless somebody smokes like a fiend around it). But since the ipod comes into contact with skin oils and dirt fairly regularly, that may cause it to... I just don't know...

 

[ITR 81]

Re: Re: hmmm...

Originally posted by revenuee
True that...


I'm curious though the iPod is white ... does the white turn yellow like so many of the white electronics of the past

I've seen older iPods and they look as white my 4 month old iPod. The discoloration comes from having it out in the direct sun light all the time and tobacco smoke. Well this is what effected many SW action figures of mine.

 

[requies]

Re: Re: Re: Colored iPods

Originally posted by gwuMACaddict
i agree... i dont think i like this idea at all... and honestly, how many people really have music collections this small? i dont know anyone that has less than 4 gigs of music... i'd rather see them keep the same sizes, but make them cheaper.

many people i know don't have ANY music on their computers. that would be a target market for a smaller capacity ipod. not you and your friends.

 

[daddy-mojo]

for the ladies

Originally posted by totally_fly
I'm worried about the "variety of colours."

I would never buy a pink iPod.

My wife sure would!