What about no cheap iPhone at all, but instead, Apple releases 8-GB iPhone 5 at $49 carrier subsidized or $449 without? They did it in the past with iPhone 4. I rather see iPhone 5, 5s and 6 instead of cheap iPhone, 5 and 5s this year.
Good point, that definitely is an option ... I think, the $49 8GB pricing came out in summer 2012 which is 2 years after initial release and 3 months before the next gen (iphone 5). Discounting it wouldn't cheapen the product since they were on the verge of a new form factor.
The iPhone 5 came out in fall 2012... can they/will they shave off $150 after one year? Unless there's an iphone 6 coming in early 2014, there will be a price-reduced new form factor iphone on the market for awhile. I believe that Apple would find it risky since it will cheapen their flagship product and also likely hurt margins.
By making a visibly different, less expensive looking, iPhone, they still justify charging the premium price for their flagship product. As well, it fulfills their goals to make a product for the mid-market and agilely ramp up for the asian market. I'm just guessing that will plastic offers *mass* volume ramp up advantages over machined aluminum.
Apple had a similar strategy for the iPod in 2004. There was only the 3rd gen (classic) iPod. Then they release the lower-cost iPod mini (5 colors). The mini I believe became their top seller and vaulted iPod way ahead of any competition. And if you look at a iPod mini, it looks as if it was design for mass volumes and multiple colors. Furthermore, they staggered the release of the two lines, so that every 6 months or so a new iPod was released.
Multi-color, plastic iPhone for this fall I think is still the best route... but it's all speculation and conjecture.
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