<SNIP>
Again, when are we going to see Linux (or a some other operating system) become a valid alternative? Its either Windows or Mac OS X - Linux isn't even on the radar. To claim you have choice is like the spam skit off Monty python.
<SNIP>.
As I pointed out before on many threads - my feeling is this. Linux can be great (and I have used it), but the usage adoption for most people/companies has always been server related and not much for the desktop/laptop consumer implementation (for the most part the x11 desktop has been slow, or the available applications had been lacking). A lot of linux installations come and go, and the whole linux kernal has become fragmented across installations. I will not rehash everything. I think the one of main breaking points has been the fact that early editions required you to be a techno-geek in order to get it running successfullly, and you had to answer a way too many hardware related questions upon install. Most consumers would not have a clue on how to answer some of the questions.
slackware, Caldera, red Hat, Linspire/Lindows, Madrake/Mandrivia, Suse/Novell, etc. are pretty much either gone, off the radar, or were too propriatry on what software could run on it. I know they are still out there, but news about them has pretty much died.
I think Ubuntu (from what I seen so far), has the best shot as being a success. I do not like Dell, but I think Uduntu will see more of a success due to Dell adopting it and releasing Dell add ons to make it more enjoyable to work with (only on Dell computers). also the makers of Ubuntu are the first to make the OS really friendly toward running on desktops and laptops.
This is pretty much why it is MS or Apple only:
1. Marketing
2. More of a closed platform, therefore better hardware support.
3. Larger companies, therefore more people are apt to write applications for them without fear that the platform will be gone in a few months. plus you get better support (tonge-in-cheek) than some linux distributors.
Plus, since MAC OS X is freeBDS, which is more of a solid UNIX than Linux; people trust its stability more. Apple also did a good job with Darwin to put a nice easy to work with desktop GUI on a Unix install. most linux desktops look too much windows like. the other problem I seen with linux, switch between desktops and your installed applications may not always be there to run.
So in short, I think your choices are quickly going to move from two to three.
MS - Windows
Apple - Mac OS X
<not sure of manufacturer off-hand> - Ubuntu (Linux)
I did a quick google search - many other latptop/desktop manufactures are also offering Ubuntu installations (Lenovo, HP, etc).
I would also like to see more apps written that will run on both Unbuntu and OS X, so that I could easily switch back and forth (ie mac desktop, ubuntu netbook [until apple comes out with a netbook]).