How many SKU's? How many market segments?
mcnaugha said:
Apologies, I know you've all been debating this a thousand times but:
We got the MacBook Pro, and then the MacBook...
We know they've trademarked "Mac Pro". Now the rumours say Apple will go Intel Workstation and use Woodcrest Xeons. The Power Mac G5 doubled as your Mac Workstation and Desktop (for those who could afford it). The iMac doesn't really count as a desktop platform since it's using mobile platform technology. Doesn't that open up the possibility for a new product line... the "Desktop" Mac... using Core 2 Duo processors?
This thread seems to run from blinkered thinking to blue sky thinking. It's instructive to see what Apple's done to gather what it may consider doing.
The revived Apple has has been a master at SKU management -- a carefully limited number of differentiated products to cover the segments it's decided to play in which stay fairly stable for up to a year or more. And in each segment, there are both premium high design features and limitations.
This is as opposed to the huge hodge podge of overlapping ever-changing products from your Dells and HP's that seem to change monthly or more often.
One can argue this limits Apple's market share potential. One can also argue it's been frustrating not to be able to add options one might want within an SKU (e.g., before the current models being able to have multiple monitor views on iMacs and iBooks). And one can argue (quite wrongly in my opinion) as people have here that this is irrelevant and it's all about the OS and not the hardware at all. But one can't argue that a sinking and very shaky company has become a solid, hi-buzz, profitable and growing corporation widely seen as the BMW or Lexus of an industry where far more Camrys and Chevvies are sold. Without slapping its name on shoddy knockoffs of itself as so many once prestigious companies have done.
And one can't argue that Apple hasn't practiced brilliant inventory management with this carefully cultivated set of SKU's and control over the press over new and phasing out products which has enhanced their financials. Nor that industry-wide mobile computers will continue to take market share from desktops in terms of sheer numbers as notebooks become capable enough to handle the tasks the great majority of users, even pros, need to accomplish with the added benefits of portability. Nor that more demanding users HAVE noticed the developments around BootCamp and Parallels.
What does this tell us about Woodcrest, Conroe and the future of Mac desktops?? Well, no crystal ball here, but my sense is that Apple's grown enough and become a hot enough company to GRADUALLY increase the number of SKU's they offer and move into new markets at both the top (of the desktop line) and bottom of the industry (e.g., some of the constantly speculated on "iPhones," eMac replacements, media centers, "thinbooks" "game books" and unknown whatnots), becoming a more full-line complete computing solution company.
Thus it seems logical, if not right at the outset, that Apple's pro desktop line facing limited potential for unit growth in a shrinking market, will segment into two main lines of relatively high-margin machines. (If not for the runaway success of notebooks, I'd say three and endorse some notion of the mini-towers advocated elsewhere in this thread.)
In this scenario, one could be a Conroe line similar to if a quantam performance leap up from today's Powermacs on universal apps. The other, which may debut up to a year from now, would be a new workstation level SKU positioned between the "MacPro" and X-Serve lines (tho' it may cost more than many X-Serves) that will appeal to deep-pocketed ($4-8K or more) highly demanding users (some individual, but primarily corporate) in the video, photographic, graphic design, scientific, statistical, engineering, animation, FX and "power users with massive ego needs" fields.
None of these machines will be huge mass movers nor nudge market share notably through their own sales in the short run, but both could be relatively popular, profitable and critical to Apple's overall image and strategy as a computing company in the longer run.
And if Apple's an elephant in the room driving the industry from a 3-4% market share position, I think they'd be more than happy to aim not at Dell-like figures for the next decade but for a reasonable chance to double that share while maintaining margins and design leadership.