Mac Revenue to 'Decline Substantially' Year Over Year in December Quarter

[EugW]

That will be fantastic. I am holding out for a M2-based Mac mini to replace my aging 2017 iMac.

I'm curious. I know the 2017 iMacs don't compare in terms of speed to the Apple Silicon machines, but what aspect affects you the most, and what are the specs of your iMac?

My 2017 27" iMac Core i5-7600 won't get replaced anytime soon, as it has SSD and 24 GB RAM, and I mostly just use business applications (albeit sometimes with pretty heavy multitasking) with a bit of light photo editing thrown in. It still feels quite responsive. It gets Ventura, and will likely get two more years of security updates after that. Furthermore, there is no direct replacement for it, so I'm inclined to keep it a long while.

OTOH, I will replace my 2014 Mac mini Core i5 with 8 GB RAM with an M2 or M2 Pro Mac mini. I suspect though they may never release that M2 Pro Mac mini, and by the sounds of it, the M2 Mac mini may not come until 2023.

 

[StupidOpinion]

lets not kid ourselves. the overwhelming majority of you guys don't need anything beyond an m1 basic. stop it

 

[everlast3434]

They could fix it if they released a 27” iMac with M1 Pro or M2 Pro right about now. What stopped them from doing so?

For sure. The iMac right now is a joke.

 

[Chazak]

rpmurray said:
Stands to reason that if you discontinue the 27 inch iMac that you're going to suffer a hit to the profits.

Counter point: Stands to reason that if you introduce the Mac Studio that you're going to gain profits.

Actually, neither of you are correct. Each of you are making some crazy assumptions that have no basis in fact. Your statements just forget any other factor exists. Discontinuing a product does not mean your profits will be hit nor does introducing a product mean your profits will go up.

Neither comment "stands to reason" at all.

 

[ghanwani]

What is it about the M1 MBA display that gives you eye strain and headaches?

Thanks for your thoughts!

I don't know for sure and did a lot of research, but basically it looks as if the edges of the letters are moving. Don't know if it's temporal dithering, some other kind of low frequency flicker (PWM freq is very high), or something else.

Most other vendors go out of their way to put "comfort view" (ok just a marketing term) type display which includes a blue light filter, matte screen, etc. Apple seems more focused on brightness and popping colors without any regard for viewing comfort. It works great for those that are not sensitive to the tricks they use.

 

[Moonlight]

rpmurray said:
Stands to reason that if you discontinue the 27 inch iMac that you're going to suffer a hit to the profits.



Actually, neither of you are correct. Each of you are making some crazy assumptions that have no basis in fact. Your statements just forget any other factor exists. Discontinuing a product does not mean your profits will be hit nor does introducing a product mean your profits will go up.

Neither comment "stands to reason" at all.

That was my point...that you missed

 

[ghanwani]

That is good to know. My next Mac will be the MacBook Pro. I expect to have it improved vision and eliminate headaches including when I don't have caffeine. Hopefully, when I sell it, I'll be able to sell it for a huge 50% gain.

You might get it if the fed pivots and inflation starts to skyrocket.

 

[lovehateapple]

If apple releases new M2 minis before Christmas I'll be helping out in the mac revenue category.

 

[Ludajim]

I would have bought an MBA if it didn't cause me eye strain and headaches. I sold my M1 MBA for $700 at a huge almost 50% loss again because of eye strain and headaches.

Plus Apple is way behind on weight. Most 13" laptops are now 2.5 lb or less, many 14" can be had for 2.5 lb.

But ultimately because of the display issue, I may never be able to use macOS again.

Same here—the 14” /16”mBp are the only displays in apple’s Mac lineup that don’t give me eye strain/migraines. An expensive problem to have lol

 

[Unregistered 4U]

I mean even if they wait till Spring it will still just be an M2 chip upgrade. They'll throw in WiFi 6E and Bluetooth 5.3 too. Not sure what kind of significant upgrades people are thinking they'll get, considering 2021 was a major redesign.

I'd also rather they update sooner, especially since I'm in the market after the death of my 16"

Yeah, and folks that are planning to buy a Mac in Jan will be just as happy if that Mac they were going to buy anyway came with an M2. For someone that does NOT own the 16”, it’s not a “minor refresh” it’s “the Mac they wanted, with a better processor”. And, if what Apple has said is still true, that’s roughly HALF of the folks buying Macs this year.

 

[August West]

I'll give them my money for an M2 mini the day orders open up.

 

[EugW]

I wonder how many people here would go for the M2 Pro Mac mini over a M2 Mac mini if Apple offered one, and offered it with the same 24 GB RAM option. If the M2 Pro Mac mini had more ports (like the Intel model), I'd probably go for it.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

I don’t recall Luca saying that Mac sales would ‘decline substantially’ this quarter. They anticipate them to be down because of the comparison and other factors — big difference.

 

[Mystakill]

I sold my M1 MBA for $700 at a huge almost 50% loss again because of eye strain and headaches.
…
But ultimately because of the display issue, I may never be able to use macOS again.

You do realize that the screen resolution can be configured to display in a larger font, right?

 

[minik]

I'm curious. I know the 2017 iMacs don't compare in terms of speed to the Apple Silicon machines, but what aspect affects you the most, and what are the specs of your iMac?

My 2017 27" iMac Core i5-7600 won't get replaced anytime soon, as it has SSD and 24 GB RAM, and I mostly just use business applications (albeit sometimes with pretty heavy multitasking) with a bit of light photo editing thrown in. It still feels quite responsive. It gets Ventura, and will likely get two more years of security updates after that. Furthermore, there is no direct replacement for it, so I'm inclined to keep it a long while.

OTOH, I will replace my 2014 Mac mini Core i5 with 8 GB RAM with an M2 or M2 Pro Mac mini. I suspect though they may never release that M2 Pro Mac mini, and by the sounds of it, the M2 Mac mini may not come until 2023.

Yes, I have Ventura already installed. It has a Fusion drive, 4.2 Ghz i7, and 32GB of memory. It's my primary work computer and they have a 5-year life cycle policy. The 24-inch M1 iMac is really not my cup of tea especially the design language.

 

[zubikov]

Either sales decline or the margins take it on the chin. My guess is Apple would rather bet on a period of slow sales, than face lowering their margins. The latter is very hard to reverse.

I can’t believe that they gave no guidance, and yet were somehow spared the wrath other tech giants faced this week.

 

[EugW]

Yes, I have Ventura already installed. It has a Fusion drive, 4.2 Ghz i7, and 32GB of memory. It's my primary work computer and they have a 5-year life cycle policy. The 24-inch M1 iMac is really not my cup of tea especially the design language.

Ah, the Fusion drive. I understand.

BTW, I originally bought the i7 but hated the fact the fan always came on audibly every time I exported a video for longer than 30s, so I returned it and got the i5, which is much quieter.

 

[docbop]

Mac revenue is set to take a significant hit in the first fiscal quarter of 2023, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said during today's earnings call. Maestri was providing guidance on December quarter earnings, and he said that Mac sales will be down year over year next quarter because of the strong December 2021 Max lineup.

Apple in October 2021 introduced the M1 Pro and M1 Max 14 and 16-inch MacBook Pro models, marking a major new product debut as these were the first Apple silicon versions of the larger Mac notebooks. The new MacBook Pro models included much faster chips and an overhauled design, making them appealing to consumers and spurring sales.

There will be no equivalent launch this year. Rumors have suggested we could get new versions of the 14 and 16-inch MacBook Pro models and new Mac minis before the end of the year, but the focus will be on simple chip refreshes with no design changes. Macs released in late 2022 could also be subject to some of the same supply constraints we've seen impacting Macs throughout 2022.

Thanks to the M2 MacBook Air announcement in June, Mac sales in Q4 2022 saw significant growth. Apple said that Macs brought $11.5 billion, up $2.5 billion year over year. 2022 was a strong year for Macs with Apple earning a total of $40.1 billion from Mac sales.

Article Link: Mac Revenue to 'Decline Substantially' Year Over Year in December Quarter

Well when the first M1 Apple's started to ship and people raving about the performance boost I said Apples issue moving forward is the M-series products are hitting a point of diminishing returns. The M-series chips have more than enough performance of the average user and the proconsumer with the Mac Studio computers. So now next some next gen Apples are coming out and even the reviewer testing are say not that much difference. That Pro level applications haven't advanced to point to need more power. Look at the articles on the rumoured M2-Pro and etc Apple is throw more graphic core than performance cores because that is what the major film studios need.

Apple has moved into a place where better and better chips aren't necessary for the bulk of their customers. So sales are going to drop because with the economy people know isn't going to buy them much if anything more than what they have already.

 

[theorist9]

Ah, the Fusion drive. I understand.

BTW, I originally bought the i7 but hated the fact the fan always came on audibly every time I exported a video for longer than 30s, so I returned it and got the i5, which is much quieter.

I never understood why Apple didn't do the obvious, and incorporate a better cooling solution into the 27" iMac with its last redesign. They knew both how noisy it would be under load with the upper-end CPU they planned to offer as an option, and also how much Mac users prize quiet machines.

Given this, and given that they could have easily, and inexpensively, made it as quiet under load as the iMac Pro (by using some variant of that approach), their decision doesn't make sense (at least not to me). After all, how much does one additional fan, a larger aluminum heatsink (I assume), and some extra plastic piping cost? Plus they could have fit it into about the same form factor.

 

[ufomism]

I would have bought an MBA if it didn't cause me eye strain and headaches. I sold my M1 MBA for $700 at a huge almost 50% loss again because of eye strain and headaches.

Plus Apple is way behind on weight. Most 13" laptops are now 2.5 lb or less, many 14" can be had for 2.5 lb.

But ultimately because of the display issue, I may never be able to use macOS again.

No PWM on M2 Air:

However, the new MacBook Air M2 shows no sign of PWM flickering in return, which will definitely be an advantage for some users.

Apple MacBook Air M2 Entry Review – A very good, but too expensive daily MacBook

Notebookcheck reviews the new Apple MacBook Air M2 Midnight in the base-level spec with 8 GB RAM and 256 GB SSD storage.

www.notebookcheck.net

 

[mdriftmeyer]

Either sales decline or the margins take it on the chin. My guess is Apple would rather bet on a period of slow sales, than face lowering their margins. The latter is very hard to reverse.

I can’t believe that they gave no guidance, and yet were somehow spared the wrath other tech giants faced this week.

> $20 b profit, > $90 billion quarter. Roll back the past ten years and they don't need to give guidance. They surpass everyone else in results.

 

[BuddyTronic]

No, he's saying that a small refresh of an existing product will not spur a big burst of sales like a generational redesign did.

Well I’d upgrade to M2 16” MBP from my M1.

Maybe the issue would be with lead time on delivery date. I hope they announce it in November at least.

 

[CalMin]

This explanation doesn't make a lot of sense to me - the wait times were 1-2 months on release (in October 2021). No one could get their hands on one of the new M1 Pro / M1 Max MBP's when they came out a year ago.

The wait times were long but that’s because they were selling every machine they could make. They were shipping thousands of units daily and still could not keep up with demand.

 

[BuddyTronic]

> $20 b profit, > $90 billion quarter. Roll back the past ten years and they don't need to give guidance. They surpass everyone else in results.

$20B and it’s not their biggest quarter.

Not many companies get $20B in a full year really. I’d like to see some comparisons to any other corporations. People need to let it “sink” in. Tim Cook should carry a sink with him maybe (like Elon)

 

[ghanwani]

Same here—the 14” /16”mBp are the only displays in apple’s Mac lineup that don’t give me eye strain/migraines. An expensive problem to have lol

Lucky you. Even those don’t work for me.