MacBook Anticipation

[Willis]

<paraphrase>Start the ads, build the brand, stoke the flames, and then release the MacBook</paraphrase>

...could be.

But here's the rub. Right now, at the commercial's launch, Apple has a new slogan, and a new page on their website to match. And on that webpage is the question: Which Mac is right for you?

And the cheapest Mac notebook that the page shows me? $2000.

This is crazy. If the ads are effective, potential switchers will be looking at these pages and not see any consumer level portables. Even if the MacBooks come out next week, that's a week of confused shoppers deciding they can't afford a Mac.

Doesn't make sense, because most of us seem to think that there's no good reason why there couldn't be a MacBook right now. In fact, one rumor awhile back said they were ready to manufacture, but were waiting for the green light from marketing.

So either they come out really soon with their own commercials, or Apple is waiting for the Core Duo price drops due at the end of the month.

From what i remember, macbooks have been in production since the orders of the screens. This is what was on Macworld.co.uk site on 4th April

"Citing the Chinese-language Commercial Times, Forbes reports Apple to have hired the Taiwanese manufacturer to supply an initial 1.2 million new consumer laptops.

A report on DigiTimes reveals that AU Optronics, Chi Mei Optoelectronics and Korea-based LG.Philips LCD have received orders for: "13.3-inch widescreen notebook panels from Apple with shipments kicking off in April," for the new Macs.

Shipments are scheduled at 40,000-50,000 units each month from one of the three firms, AU Optronics"

I think from this, it is looking like a June/July annoucement.

 

[Willis]

I think it's still a possibility.

Intel Core Duo 2.16Ghz
1.5GB ram
120GB Hard Drive
ATI Radeon X1800/512
iSight/Front Row
8x Superdrive

$799

That spec in a Macbook would NOT cost $799

Thats just wishful thinking to the max

 

[Willis]

heres Charles Wolf's opinion on it.

http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?NewsID=14431&Page=6&pagePos=9

iBook imminent

Wolf sees Apple's Q2 as a good result in which the company "escaped" too much impact from its Intel transition.

"An inkling of postponed purchases reduced December quarter shipments. Postponements were undoubtedly higher in the March quarter. And they should continue at least through the September quarter and possibly into December," Wolf warned.

Products drive success, particularly in the consumer markets, and Wolf echoed industry consensus, saying: "We expect Apple to introduce a new
iBook with an Intel processor in time for the K-12 school-buying season, which begins in June. Without the new model, the season could be quite short."

Speaking during this week's Apple Q2 conference call, chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer warned that gross margins would decline slightly in the current quarter, attributing this to the beginning of the K-12 buying season.

Wolf translates this as evidence of the debut of a consumer notebook that's set to capture education sales on the basis of price.

 

[ImAlwaysRight]

You won't see an 8x Superdrive in any MacBook. If it won't fit in the 15.4" MBP, how would it fit in a 13.3 MB? Sorry, not going to happen unless they've come out with an impossibly small 8x drive.. doubt it.

Actually, it has more to do with the thickness of the laptop.

Now if the MacBook is reduced to 1" thickness, then we'll be stuck to the same 4x SuperDrive as in the MacBook Pro. But if the MacBook comes in at 1.1-1.3" thick, then there will be room for the current 8x SuperDrives.

 

[netdog]

Actually, it has more to do with the thickness of the laptop.

Now if the MacBook is reduced to 1" thickness, then we'll be stuck to the same 4x SuperDrive as in the MacBook Pro. But if the MacBook comes in at 1.1-1.3" thick, then there will be room for the current 8x SuperDrives.

I know that some of you use your MBs and MBs as your only computer, but there is real room in the market for a portable without any sort of internal optical drive. I would far rather hook mine up from time to time when I occasionally need to load a CDRom. I certainly don't need a Super Drive on my laptop, but if it were an external, they could also offer a choice of drives.

A laptop without an internal CD/DVD is lighter, can be thinner, and leaves more room to distribute the circuits which have a tendency to cook each other in the small housings that consumers today demand. I would be thrilled to see Apple ship with an external drive as most of us rarely use it. Once I have loaded Office, other than ripping CDs (which I will do on my home computer anyway given the preciousness of space on the portable), I will rarely touch the optical drive. Almost all of my software will be downloaded or passed from my main machine. Many of us, myself included, could forego the optical drive completely, and just load software by mounting our primary systems on our portable to do the occasional install.

 

[TallShaffer]

So.... not going to say where I heard this, but we all know that CompUSA carries apple computers.

Another very good thing is that corporate level compusa has started shipping MacBooks to regular retail stores.


Hmmmmmmmmmm, that might be a clue towards the release date.

 

[netdog]

So.... not going to say where I heard this, but we all know that CompUSA carries apple computers.

Another very good thing is that corporate level compusa has started shipping MacBooks to regular retail stores.


Hmmmmmmmmmm, that might be a clue towards the release date.

For real? You are saying that MacBooks are in the channel?

 

[Multimedia]

$799 Would Attract More Customers

Doesn't seem that way if we look at what Apple has said. If they expected to come in under $1k, I don't think that they would have made that comment. I don't think it's a ruse. I think it is known as managing client expectations. I just hope they chuck the idea of a Core Solo portable altogether. A sluggish and soon outdated laptop will do nothing to help their brand.

Well I was thinking that a Core Solo Combo MB would be the way they could come in at $799. I dont' see how that would hurt the sales of Core Duo Models coming in at $999 and $1299. Wouldn't it open up a larger market of lower income and email-web browser only types? And it would still be a half decent multimedia-light machine. If you can get customers in the door with a $799 model what's to say the sales people can't up-sell them the $999 Core Duo model?

 

[netdog]

Well I was thinking that would be the way they could come in at $799. I dont' see how that would hurt the sales of $999 and $1299 models. Wouldn't it open up a larger market of lower income and email-web browser only types? And it would still be a half decent multimedia-light machine. If you can get customers in the door with a $799 model what's to say the sales people can't up-sell them the $999 Core Duo model?

Is there really a $200 difference between a Core Solo or Core Duo? I think these are also very optimistic prices. Of course, you called it on the MBP 17", so I can't dismiss it, but my gut says no $799 machine, maybe not even under $1,000, though not far over, and a high end more like $1499 or even $1599. If they do get a $999 out the door, I also think there will be some nasty unforseen compromise with it. I think it more likely $1049 or even $1099, but that I am not so firm about.

 

[jacobj]

Apple are between a rock and a hard place. It would be easy for them to produce a $799 MacBook if they use an older mobile processor, but they can only go with the latest technology as their statement has been that intel's roadmap is what made them move. Using an older process will indicate that they should have moved earlier and it not a good image.

I can only see 2 options:

1. Apple produces a $1000 plus MacBook and drops the price at a later date
2. Apple waits for Merom to release the MacBook when the CPU prices drop on the current Yonah CPUs and therefore enables them to release a $700 MacBook

 

[netdog]

I've got a feeling that poster earlier was telling the truth, and that CompUSA has shipped MacBooks.

 

[CHROMEDOME]

I don't know where all you guys are getting the $799 price point but I don't think thats going to happen. I can see two of the following

1.5ghz core solo
512mb
60gb Sata
13.3 widescreen 1280x720
combo drive
GMA 950 or whatever stupid intel graphics
iSight(?)
magsafe, front row and remote
Bluetooth and Airport

$999 or $1099

1.67ghz core duo
512mb
80gb Sata
13.3 widescreen 1336x768
x1300 64mb with 128 BTO
iSight
superdrive 4x
Magsafe, front row and remote
Bluetooth and Airport

$1399 or $1499
The first one is an iBook replacement and the second one is a 12 inch powerbook replacement.

 

[Multimedia]

$32 Difference Between Core Solo & Duo @ 1.66 GHz

Is there really a $200 difference between a Core Solo or Core Duo? I think these are also very optimistic prices. Of course, you called it on the MBP 17", so I can't dismiss it, but my gut says no $799 machine, maybe not even under $1,000, though not far over, and a high end more like $1499 or even $1599. If they do get a $999 out the door, I also think there will be some nasty unforseen compromise with it. I think it more likely $1049 or even $1099, but that I am not so firm about.

In January these were the pricing plans:
The US$209 Core Solo Yonah will be called the T1300, and it will run at 1.66 GHz. The Core Duos start at $241 with the 1.66GHz T2300 and go up to $637 for the 2.16GHz T2600.

So only $32 difference between 1.66 GHz Solo and Duo. But isn't that about to change June 1st? I can't find the June 2006 price list. I'm thinking the $799 has a Combo drive while all the rest have 4x SuperDrives. I guess I am overly optimistic Apple would target the sub-$1k mobile market. I think it would do wonders for their penetration level. They could skip Bluetooth and the built-in iSight. They could put a smaller drive inside. Perhaps it would have a lower profit margin. But the quantity they could sell would offset that issue wouldn't it? And it would empower so many more young and lower-income people while still leaving some money left over for an iPod.

I doubt they will have different size screen RESOLUTIONS across the division. I don't see anything but integrated graphics in any models. I am praying they are all 800 pixels high.

 

[netdog]

I am liking this. Give me an iBook with no optical drive. Shades of when Steve dropped the floppy.

 

[peharri]

I'm guessing:

Intel Core Duo 2.5GHz + Twin Core 2.7GHz G5 co-processor
1280x800 13" widescreen
1280x800 built-in webcam
1280x800 built-in projector
2G of memory
120Gb HD
ATI X1600 graphics (512Mb)
16x DL DVD superdrive
6 USB2 ports, 3 FW800
Optical out
Choice between Trackpad and Trackpoint pointing systems (three button Trackpoint)
.5" thick.


$399, with a special $199 introductory offer

(Hey, everyone else is posting their ideal MacBook, why can't I?)

 

[netdog]

I'm guessing:

Intel Core Duo 2.5GHz + Twin Core 2.7GHz G5 co-processor
1280x800 13" widescreen
1280x800 built-in webcam
1280x800 built-in projector
2G of memory
120Gb HD
ATI Radeon 6800 graphics
16x DL DVD superdrive
6 USB2 ports, 3 FW800
Optical out
Choice between Trackpad and Trackpoint pointing systems (three button Trackpoint)
.5" thick.


$399, with a special $199 introductory offer

(Hey, everyone else is posting their ideal MacBook, why can't I?)

$499 for the 17"

Don't forget the free Video Full Screen iPod for all those who order at apple.com in the first 30 days.

And the 1,000 iTMS song credits...and the user-upgradeable CPU sockets.

 

[otterpop]

wow. i was awarded the wishful thinking award for hoping apple swapped my g4 ibook for a new macbook (was just wishfully thinking outloud) but anybody who thinks there's going to be a $799 intel macbook with all the specs that have been discussed... you guys need to lay off the drugs. seriously. $799 for a macbook is irrational. anyone who tries to use the "well the mini cost is..." just grab a mini, strap a battery to it ($129.95) and an LCD ($200?) and you're getting closer to a realistic price.

 

[TallShaffer]

Yep, I'm being dead honest. I'm not going to give out my sources (No, I'm not a comp USA employee), but they just told me "be patient, it's in our corporate warehouses and on the way to retail". That's a pretty good sign showing that these little guys will be out VERY soon. I was shocked as non-apple retailers usually have computers a week or so after apple stores carry them.

I agree with some people from before saying that apple would be making a huge mistake by not releasing the macbooks yet, especially after that ad campaign. I do work in a computer store (again, not compusa) and the most common thing I hear is "I'm looking for a cheap laptop". One of the things holding back win people from switching is the slightly higher prices of apple. The point of the commercial set is to have people take a look at apple computers, and when they see a minimum laptop price of 2,000, they get discouraged.

 

[marchcapital]

I am relitivley new to the mac world. Will Jobs wait for some kind of an event to introduce the new iBook. Or will he will he just randomly add it to the website?

 

[Tmog]

Yep, I'm being dead honest. I'm not going to give out my sources (No, I'm not a comp USA employee), but they just told me "be patient, it's in our corporate warehouses and on the way to retail". That's a pretty good sign showing that these little guys will be out VERY soon. I was shocked as non-apple retailers usually have computers a week or so after apple stores carry them.

I agree with some people from before saying that apple would be making a huge mistake by not releasing the macbooks yet, especially after that ad campaign. I do work in a computer store (again, not compusa) and the most common thing I hear is "I'm looking for a cheap laptop". One of the things holding back win people from switching is the slightly higher prices of apple. The point of the commercial set is to have people take a look at apple computers, and when they see a minimum laptop price of 2,000, they get discouraged.

I sure hope you are right - that would be GREAT!!!!!!!

And as you say, it would make sense.

 

[Multimedia]

$799 Is The High End Of Sub $1k Models

wow. i was awarded the wishful thinking award for hoping apple swapped my g4 ibook for a new macbook (was just wishfully thinking outloud) but anybody who thinks there's going to be a $799 intel macbook with all the specs that have been discussed... you guys need to lay off the drugs. seriously. $799 for a macbook is irrational. anyone who tries to use the "well the mini cost is..." just grab a mini, strap a battery to it ($129.95) and an LCD ($200?) and you're getting closer to a realistic price.

OK. The LCD Screen costs way less than $100 - probably less than $49, then remove the Bluetooth (not an option) and Airport ($99 option), reduce the HD size and you're back down to $799. It is not out of the realm of the possible. It's really a matter of marketing will. Here in the Bay area we see mobile PCs for $449 (today's deal) for sale all the time. So $799 is on the high end of this sub-$1k market and not out of the question.

NOTE: I am not expecting this. I am saying it could be done at a profit and I WISH Apple would go after this market.

Current $449 model with Win XP has 256 MB ram and a 40 GB HD with Combo optical. That is brand X. Now Apple could offer the same thing with 512MB ram for $799 at it would be a good deal. Airport is not necessary for entry model. Buyers can purchase and install it later for $99.

 

[otterpop]

see, there's the problem. they aren't going to reduce the basic specs.
if it doesn't have wireless built in, if it doesn't have a good size hard drive, it's NOT going to be competitive in terms of technology. just not going to happen.

i want a macbook as much as the next guy, and i don't want to pay out the rump for it. but come on guys, stop hitting the pipe and sober up.

 

[netdog]

OK. The LCD Screen costs way less than $100 - probably less than $49, then remove the Bluetooth (not an option) and Airport ($99 option), reduce the HD size and you're back down to $799. It is not out of the realm of the possible. It's really a matter of marketing will. Here in the Bay area we see mobile PCs for $449 (today's deal) for sale all the time. So $799 is on the high end of this sub-$1k market and not out of the question.

NOTE: I am not expecting this. I am saying it could be done at a profit and I WISH Apple would go after this market.

Current $449 model with Win XP has 256 MB ram and a 40 GB HD with Combo optical. That is brand X. Now Apple could offer the same thing with 512MB ram for $799 at it would be a good deal. Airport is not necessary for entry model. Buyers can purchase and install it later for $99.

Interesting. You are starting to bring me around. We agree that they won't do it, but I am seeing that they perhaps could do it and still turn a profit.

Honestly though, wouldn't you rather have Airport Express on a portable than an optical drive if you had to choose? I can't imagine a portable without wifi anymore.

 

[peharri]

OK. The LCD Screen costs way less than $100 - probably less than $49, then remove the Bluetooth (not an option) and Airport ($99 option), reduce the HD size and you're back down to $799. It is not out of the realm of the possible. It's really a matter of marketing will. Here in the Bay area we see mobile PCs for $449 (today's deal) for sale all the time. So $799 is on the high end of this sub-$1k market and not out of the question.

NOTE: I am not expecting this. I am saying it could be done at a profit and I WISH Apple would go after this market.

Current $449 model with Win XP has 256 MB ram and a 40 GB HD with Combo optical. That is brand X. Now Apple could offer the same thing with 512MB ram for $799 at it would be a good deal. Airport is not necessary for entry model. Buyers can purchase and install it later for $99.

Removing wireless will not save Apple anything because it's built into the chipset Apple has been using. They'd essentially have to produce their own Cerelon-based system, and I don't think that's where they're heading right now.

I'm looking at the market and predicting a price well under $1,000 for the lowest cost "You'll never buy this thing" MacBook too, but I suspect it'll be somewhere in the $800-950 range. We're looking at a $600 Mac mini, with screen, battery, and keyboard/enclosure, and probably an iSight. Most of these aren't as expensive as people think, but they still add to the cost, and adding $200 to the Bill of Sale doesn't add $200 to the price, it adds more like $250-300.

As I said in the other thread, you can get a similarly spec'd (to a MacBook version of the $600 Mac mini) Dell laptop for around $740, albeit with 15" widescreen rather than 13". They can go above that, but they can't go much above that. $900 isn't impossible. $800 might be possible too, but their margins will be razor thin.

 

[Multimedia]

I'd Want Airport And An Optical Drive

Interesting. You are starting to bring me around. We agree that they won't do it, but I am seeing that they perhaps could do it and still turn a profit.

Honestly though, wouldn't you rather have Airport Express on a portable than an optical drive if you had to choose? I can't imagine a portable without wifi anymore.

Yes of course I'd want Airport and a Combo optical drive.

Removing wireless will not save Apple anything because it's built into the chipset Apple has been using. They'd essentially have to produce their own Cerelon-based system, and I don't think that's where they're heading right now.

Is it not still on a card you can add in later? Or is it on the motherboard now? If it's on the MOBO then it cost almost nothing so include it.

I'm looking at the market and predicting a price well under $1,000 for the lowest cost "You'll never buy this thing" MacBook too, but I suspect it'll be somewhere in the $800-950 range. We're looking at a $600 Mac mini, with screen, battery, and keyboard/enclosure, and probably an iSight. Most of these aren't as expensive as people think, but they still add to the cost, and adding $200 to the Bill of Sale doesn't add $200 to the price, it adds more like $250-300.

As I said in the other thread, you can get a similarly spec'd (to a MacBook version of the $600 Mac mini) Dell laptop for around $740, albeit with 15" widescreen rather than 13". They can go above that, but they can't go much above that. $900 isn't impossible. $800 might be possible too, but their margins will be razor thin.

And I am only speculating about a $799 model Pherri, not less. Yes razor thin margin but VOLUME sales would still equal large profits and more importantly - radical increase in market share - esp because of Boot Camp and Parallels Workstation.

REPEAT: I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL HAPPEN. How many times do I have to say I WISH, THEY COULD, WOULDN'T IT BE A GOOD IDEA IF THEY DID - none of which mean I think they will.