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That remains to be seen. Right now, they are still struggling to keep this disaster from happening. The situation is hardly what I would call stable.

i totally agree that it's still way to early to tell. Now they have to keep those containments intact at all costs since they pretty much have written off the reactors 1-3 anyway by now (i suspect there were at least partial meltdowns in all 3 of them)

if anything this event shows how reactor designs, where emergency power/pumps are required to cool an already shut-off reactor down, simply have to go

something i noticed from the diagrams of the reactor layout: the water basin where the spent fuel rods are temporarily stored is actualy outside of the steel+concrete containment: so that might explain why some reactor only isotopes were detected
i just hope none of those depelted fuel rods where scattered around from the top superstructre explosion

edit: the french Autorité de sûreté nucléaire (ASN) is expecting that the incident will get rated higher on the INES scale than the current 4. They are estimating that it will get rated as 5 or even 6 after talking to japanese experts. That would put it on the same level or higher than Three Miles island, Sellafield or Lucens
 
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What do you mean *if* we have a meltdown. Are you denying there has been a meltdown at all? I'll wager with you that there is not only just a meltdown, but actually *three* active meltdowns currently in progress right now. Even so, I'm not even sure where your confidence over the 'if' comes from, everything so far that we're seeing indicates that they are struggling to even keep the situation under control let alone stabilize it, so I believe it's more of a certainty than an if. I believe they are failing, if not already failed, and the situation is already out of their control so it's only a matter of time.

Edit - my beilief is based on reading stuff like this (from the BBC) about the hitherto quiet reactor #2. While all the focus has been on the exploding #1 and #3, they've also been pumping seawater into #2 as well. So not only is that yet another wtf? moment, we also have a wtf? squared that the fire engine truck ran out of petrol to keep the pump going so the rods were exposed. So I hope you can understand what I mean about not having confidence that they are even abe to stay on top of the situation let alone control it.

Japanese officials are saying it's highly likely there is a partial meltdown occurring in three reactors.
 
something i noticed from the diagrams of the reactor layout: the water basin where the spent fuel rods are temporarily stored is actualy outside of the steel+concrete containment: so that might explain why some reactor only isotopes were detected
i just hope none of those depelted fuel rods where scattered around from the top superstructre explosion

There is some damage to the storage pools housing the spent fuel rods and they are a source of concern,an explosion caused by lack of water cover is a possibility.
 
I have no idea why these sorts of examples are constantly used to allay peoples' concerns. Do you actually believe people actually think getting an xray is as harmless as washing with soap? We all see the technician/dentist/nurse go stand behind the protective screens when they use these things while telling us "it's fine, won't hurt you" and we all think "horse manure it won't" as the machine goes click click..
That's what I mean by tin foil hats... it really isn't bad for you, unless you're getting mutliple does every day. This is why the technician stands behind shielding... without it their average exposure would be astronomical, consider the math alone. Lets say a technician gives 20 x-rays in one day... you can do it from here.

Did you even read what I posted? You may believe in the linear no threshold model (which you clearly do), but if people in Denver Colorado get 1000 mrem a year and statistically have no ill effects, how can you even say that? An xray clearly isn't bad for you. At all. You get at least 310 mrem of exposure from the environment itself yearly. Also, do you know about biological systems at all? If you did, you'd realize that radiation exposure isn't that bad, and that genetic repair is incredibly commonplace.

My reading of the NYT article says they could be releasing clouds for MONTHS if/until it's under control, so why do you assume it will not stay like that for long? Speaking of under control..
Unfortunately, I have the same distrust issue as you do, with the only difference being me not trusting most news media for scientific facts and extrapolations. Many so called "experts" called on for media usually are highly political or vocal people usually removed from day to day science, and typically have an agenda of some sort. Like you, I don't trust the Japanese government entirely either.

See, you're downplaying it again. I don't know why, perhaps it's just your nature to adopt the calming 'please remain seated' role when the theatre's on fire. Just don't mock the headwear of the people who advise to run for the exits instead while you do. Each to their own.
No sense yelling fire if there isn't one. I'm not saying that there won't ever be issues, just that I believe that there isn't a major issue right now (and if they were up to par on safety features, we shouldn't have even gotten this far).

What do you mean *if* we have a meltdown. Are you denying there has been a meltdown at all? I'll wager with you that there is not only just a meltdown, but actually *three* active meltdowns currently in progress right now. Even so, I'm not even sure where your confidence over the 'if' comes from, everything so far that we're seeing indicates that they are struggling to even keep the situation under control let alone stabilize it, so I believe it's more of a certainty than an if. I believe they are failing, if not already failed, and the situation is already out of their control so it's only a matter of time.
The reason I say if is because there's no proof either way. Everyone's speculating right now; no one has access to the core. The core temperature sensors aren't working. It could be a partial meltdown, it could not be. Nevertheless, as long as it remains contained, there wont be a safety issue. Remember that BWRs generate heat even with the control rods; if one of those rods became damaged, heat output would increase.

Edit - my beilief is based on reading stuff like this (from the BBC) about the hitherto quiet reactor #2. While all the focus has been on the exploding #1 and #3, they've also been pumping seawater into #2 as well. So not only is that yet another wtf? moment, we also have a wtf? squared that the fire engine truck ran out of petrol to keep the pump going so the rods were exposed. So I hope you can understand what I mean about not having confidence that they are even abe to stay on top of the situation let alone control it.
I fully understand the lack in confidence you feel; it never should have gotten to the boric acid seawater. That said, they should have had multiple redundant systems for backup generators, as is required in many places. Furthermore, since the rest of their grid is up, why don't they have an electric pump there? The military has large industrial grade pumps...

See, this event doesn't scream the lack of nuclear safety to me, it screams the lack of proper handling and maintenance of basic safety protocols. With systems in place elsewhere in the world, this never would have gotten this far.
 
there were actually three redundant cooling systems, but they all failed.
in honesty i think it's unfair to claim that they were unprepared, or that there were maintenance safety protocol issues.

what they went through was unprecedented, and beyond the worst case scenarios they were designed for, so if the accident is fully contained (which unfortunately seems less likely as time goes by) the whole system should be commended.
of course, this all should be a pricey lesson to e learned from, but it could have been a lot worse. a lot.

Also, i was actually positively surprised by how direct and candid the japanese gov has been, after a bit of stonewalling at the beginning. not sure the same would have happened elsewhere.
 
what they went through was unprecedented, and beyond the worst case scenarios they were designed for, so if the accident is fully contained (which unfortunately seems less likely as time goes by) the whole system should be commended.
Trouble with this argument is that if everything goes completely tits-up with any other kind of power station, the results are indeed containable, but in the case of a nuclear power station, the results can be catastrophically bad. It is taking a worst case scenario to a whole different level.
 
Trouble with this argument is that if everything goes completely tits-up with any other kind of power station, the results are indeed containable, but in the case of a nuclear power station, the results can be catastrophically bad. It is taking a worst case scenario to a whole different level.

oh, i am not arguing that, i am just saying that, given the circumstances, things so far has not been as bad as they could have.
of course things could still go south, but hopefully they won't
 
I have no idea why these sorts of examples are constantly used to allay peoples' concerns. Do you actually believe people actually think getting an xray is as harmless as washing with soap? We all see the technician/dentist/nurse go stand behind the protective screens when they use these things while telling us "it's fine, won't hurt you" and we all think "horse manure it won't" as the machine goes click click..

Because they're quite valid? Okay, it's not the same as washing with soap, but the odd X-Ray for the patient isn't going to do anything to their radiation levels. Even if you have to get them yearly, it still adds up to nothing.

But the operator? Depending how busy they are, they can do over 30 in a single day, 5+ days a week. Taking 50mrem X-rays, towards the worst case, that could be 1500mrem a day, 7500 a week, 350,000 a year.

That's around 530 times a normal yearly dose, without touching on MRI or other medical imaging that uses higher doses. Of course they stand behind a protective screen.
 
I believe that massive solar energy farms in the Sahara and other deserts, servicing whole landmasses, like the EU proposal, is the way to go. If the price goes up to pay for the infrastructure, the rationing effect can only be a good thing. Safety, certainly, is hardly an issue.
 
Does a partial melt-down equate with being a little bit pregnant?

of course things could still go South, but hopefully they won't


Inscrutable cat says
 

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I believe that massive solar energy farms in the Sahara and other deserts, servicing whole landmasses, like the EU proposal, is the way to go. If the price goes up to pay for the infrastructure, the rationing effect can only be a good thing. Safety, certainly, is hardly an issue.

that could be one way to go, another would be having sun/wind farms in the middle of the ocean, to be moved out of the way when weather comes along.

one problem with this off-site approaches is that you still have to transfer the energy long distance
 
there seem to be news breaking of an explosion at reactor 2 but without any more specifics so far

edit: at the press conference http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv the press seems to be 'tearing them a new one'

so far from i have gathered:
- explosion noises from the suppression pool
- pressure in the suppression pool dropping (but might be damaged gauge)
- personal is evacuated except direct operaters and personal required for water injections (even evacuated from reacter 1+3 operations)
- 2.7 meters of the fuel rods exposed

tecpo constantly trying to dodge questions on wether serious damages have been done to the containment vessel
 
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I was watching ABC World News with Diane Sawyer this evening and she said there have been no reports of looting since the earthquake. She went on to say that the total population is about half that of the US, squeezed into an area the size of Montana.

If it's true that there has been no looting, I think that says a lot for the Japanese people. That's a sign of a very respectable and community oriented civilization.

I lived in Japan for one year while serving in the US Marines, and I enjoyed every minute of my stay there. I do hope that someday I can make a return visit.

Back to the bit about looting, I feel ashamed and embarrassed of my own countrymen in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina when we all saw people, including police officers, looting Walmart and many other businesses. To me it's unacceptable for Americans to be doing that sort of thing as the "leaders of the free world." Thats one area where the Japanese have the high ground over Americans; sense of community through disaster.

Let me qualify my remarks by saying I realize that the percentage of Americans who were looting after Katrina, is small, but when it's broadcast over international TV, it reflects on the whole country.
 
Are there any like Predator survailance drones arround there? You'd figure by now since the US has arrived, they would bring a bunch of these planes that circle Afghanistan and Iraq all 24-7. They can like spot heat signatures and like liscense plates and stuff like that.
 
according to tepco a 8000+ microsievert 8mSV+) value of radiation has been measured on the power plant grounds

yearly average dosage 2.4mSV

and while the values have since then dropped again to lower levels the situation has become more serious than before
 
They are in real trouble now, can only hope the winds keep things blowing out to sea. I was hoping to get home from work to see things finally under control.... not the exact opposite. :(
 
So, if they have a serious meltdown situation, the whole site could become so contaminated that no one who wants to live more than a few hours will be able to get anywhere near the other cores to keep the hoses on them? It would seem like one meltdown will take the rest of them with it, in a sort of chain reaction.
They are in real trouble now, can only hope the winds keep things blowing out to sea. I was hoping to get home from work to see things finally under control.... not the exact opposite. :(
Yeah, the folks living in the western US are really looking forward to the "divine wind" from Japan.
 
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So, if they have a serious meltdown situation, the whole site could become so contaminated that no one who wants to live more than a few hours will be able to get anywhere near the other cores to keep the hoses on them? It would seem like one meltdown will take the rest of them with it, in a sort of chain reaction.

Yeah, the folks living in the western US are really looking forward to the "divine wind" from Japan.

Well, I don't think they expect any explosion of the cap spewing a volcano of radioactive metal like Chernobol. If anything, worse case is they build a structure arround it like in Chernobol and hope the radioactive stuff doesn't seep into the water when it melts into the ground.

Theoretically, if the geography allows, I would presume they can dig arround and under the reactor and build some form of shield structure and leave it like that forever. Or until technology allows a real cleanup in the future.
 
Should they have a full-on meltdown, yes there will be fallout detected around the globe - but I doubt the levels will be high enough to cause concern after thousands of miles to disperse.

As for the divine wind bit... To be fair, we did irradiate them first...
 
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