Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
JoeMacDaddy said:
Microsft has announced EOL on Win 95/98/ME & NT. No support, no patches = must move to newer OS. License by Microsoft is you want supported OS, then you pay price for Longhorn and use 2K or XP. You have to understand their current license scam/scheme. People who bought the big corporate license had to buy the XP license just to have their NT installation supported. That is how they got $40+ billion in the bank.


I can't defend software assurance with the delay Longhorn is getting, Corps are going to get screwed.

But for consumers and the rest of us, with the resources it takes to create an OS (see not too many others can do it, and open source, it's taking years, years just to get a decent desktop). Microsoft can't keep writing for older OS'. How many updates have there been for OS 7.x, 8.5, and 9?

They have Longhorn embedded for XBox 2, Windows Mobile, all the server apps, working on XP SP2 has delayed Longhorn, they're dropping Palladium to meet the 2006 release. It's not easy. Remember, it still has to work on a million different configurations.

If your system is working when Longhorn is released, you don't have to upgrade. If your word processor works, you don't need Office/LH or whatever.
 
I just hope that by 2007 we will be using a 3d operating system and at least 1 petaflop pre second.That will be real progress. Raytracing in real time, and a 3d display plus some hints of artificial intelligence... but that¡s just me :cool:
 
AppleSox said:
Maybe this is totally different but you know where he gets all excited over the movie playing thumbnail size? Well, doesn't OS X do that already in the Dock with a Quicktime (or whatever) playing? Or is this a whole other thing? You can correct me if I'm wrong about it. :)

And don't forget that OS X does this with Expose as well. In fact, I just opened 5 movies, set them to loop, and started playing them on an old G4 dual 450 and they all played without stuttering when I Exposed them.

Frank
 
MorganX said:
I don't think it would scare people at all since security is the buzzword. Additionally, everyone is going to have Rights Management. Everyone. Not just iTunes but everyone.

FWIW, Palladium has been dropped for the most part. It will not be in Longhorn, the will use the NX bit in AMD processors and soon Intel processors instead. This is probably the big feature cut that will allow the beta in 2k5 and RTM in early 2k6.


I stand corrected. I was not aware of this development.
 
I got a copy of Longhorn, let me tell you, it looks worse then XP, I’m now getting really sick of Microsoft. Since XP came out, let me tell you I have now made the switch, not the apple switch, I was born growing up with Macs and will die with a powerbook in hand, I have switch to all open source, the only next big thing, is to get the server in our house off windows server 2003…. Ewww :(:(

Here is a screen shot
http://crazybobby.com/temps/desktop.JPG



Bobby The Gibbons
Crazybobby.com
 
Long...

So this OS is to happen at some far off point in the future.

That's very dull!

In fact it's a long YAWN!!!!!



See what I did there???







I'll get my coat... :cool:
 
so your saying there are only 250million computers in the world....
there are 10 thousand in my wifes call centre alone
not to mention how many call centres there are in the worl, plus schools ect ect ect

Check your math. I said half a billion people who are capable of and probably own a computer, or thereabouts, most of whom will possess machines that have been bought used. This does not take into account large entities like governments, corporations, universities, and so on, who have massive amounts of money to invest in purchases.

However, my family is a decent example. When I was growing up, we started with one computer for the whole group. By the time I went away to college, we had at least one per person - only one of which was ever a current purchase. My parents both have Masters degrees or higher, and make several multiples of the median income (which, as I recall, is pegged around $23-28,000 right now, in the US).

pjkelnhofer said:
Wow! Talk about a dismal world view. C'mon, do you really believe all that? I don't think that there is this massive conspiracy between MS and the hardware makers. In some ways, the PC world benefits from seperate OS and Hardware manufactures. It causes them to push each other, not secretly force people into buying the latest equipment.

You don't believe corporations do things like this? How do you explain the five major recording studios and the RIAA, if not as an anti-competitive unit? What's the deal with Microsoft's anti-competitive and monopolistic tactics, if not an attempt to lock the market place to their product?

I'm not dismal, I'm realistic. Stop and think about the benefit to everyone I named for a moment:
1) Microsoft continues to sell client licenses, gains a royalty market from "securing" content for the digital providers (music, movies, images, and even text), has even more of a chance to push their standards, and locks a new round of hardware updates so that they have even more headroom to do bad code.
2) The hardware manufacturers, who are rapidly hitting a wall for anything but the most serious of gamers and scientific/mathematic/creative applications, will be given a firm reason to continue their upgrade cycle. With the application of new technology that hasn't been widespread in the marketplace, and the addition of TCI hardware on motherboards, they will have all the pieces in place to start a real media monopoly the likes of which has never been seen, and the PC manufacturers will be gladly gobbling up the profits. For them, more expensive machines are a godsend - lower per-unit proportional expenditure and higher profits.
3) Content owners that tap TCI will have signed reference to the hardware that the media is being used on, and will know if you've done anything with it that you shouldn't because your CPU, motherboard, and OS (all of which likely have your credit card attached to them in records somewhere) are tagging your information to any transactions you make. It's an advertiser's wet dream, because they'll be able to see everything you read, watch, download, and otherwise take part in. Royalties will be almost assured, as the pay-for-play mentality gains mindshare and the hardware openness to the people who hold the TCI reins allows them to check for your right to use anything you have on your drives.

Basically, D*I*S Frontman got to this before I did, but I agree with him wholeheartedly, and expand his outline with the references to the media control elements.

Don't you think that if Apple suddenly got huge marketshare they would get slammed for insisting that they control both the Hardware and Software ends of their equipment?

This is irrelevant and immaterial to this discussion. Apple doesn't have that market position, is unlikely to have it, and they already get slammed for controlling both. This is not the point of the discussion, because Apple has been extraordinarily good about having older hardware run the latest OS fairly well and are not leveraging hardware and software DRM.

Sometimes, I wonder if a lot of the people who buy Macs buy them just because the are not the dominate computer, not because they are simply better designed for what they want a PC to do.

My mac works, does what it's supposed to, and doesn't restrict me with ridiculous restrictions on calling in my system to the company I bought the OS from. With each successive release of OS X, even my oldest machines are getting faster. I can navigate and do things more easily in OS X because it works in a way that I am comfortable with and doesn't make me feel like I have to go debug the registry, apply eighteen drivers, and download all the patches as soon as I get a new copy of the OS installed.

I use maces because they're better for how I computer.

SiliconAddict said:
Umm actually I expect to see RAID become standard in the future. A failed HD is the biggest potential for data loss on a computer. I'm betting in the next 4 years you are going to see SATA RAID become mainstream with 3x 500GB hard drives RAIDed. Cheaper end computer will always stick with single drives for price but higher end system will probably start to incorporate poor mans RAID.

Actually, I expect SATA RAID to become a standard in most general-use computers within a year. It cost me around $300 to buy a PCI controller and a single drive after-market. Another $100-120 gets me the same drive six months later, and then I just plug them in and format.

I know OEMs can do it even cheaper, especially with on-board controllers.

SiliconAddict said:
It WILL NOT. The feature will come disabled by default. Microsoft has stated this time and again because they don't want to scare the crap out of people.

You believe a promise from Microsoft?

They have two to three years to start pushing the idea of the TCI, to hype it and spin it so that people are excited about giving their rights away. After all, look at how the average American is willing to just hand over their liberty to the federal government just because it supposedly makes them safe, when the statistics haven't changed and they're more likely to die from car crashes than terrorist acts. People are sheep. They'll accept anything that's said in a certain way, and the TCI will be pushed over the next few years, until the public is ready to accept it.

MorganX said:
I don't think it would scare people at all since security is the buzzword. Additionally, everyone is going to have Rights Management. Everyone. Not just iTunes but everyone.

It's only "everyone" if people sit down and take it. This is the same attitude I run into with politics, social change, and anything else around us that people have grown unnecessarily resigned to. The system exists how it, and people are going to try to take control of you, but the only success they can have is if you let them have it. If enough people said that they didn't want DRM, didn't buy DRMed materials, it just couldn't happen. It would choke the industry and they'd have no choice.

People are selfish and lazy, though, and won't forgo some trinket because they want it too much.
 
SiliconAddict said:
I really can't see tiger being that much more of a step above Panther. For the love of god the OS hasn't even been out a year.

The G5 was kept secret for two years. Who knows what lurks in the R&D labs at Apple, waiting to see the light when the implementation synchs to what they're trying to do? It could be that the rumored inclusion of Java 1.5 in Tiger will also bring something like Looking Glass to Mac OS X. Hell, it's probably going to be something nobody really expects. After all, Jobs is a showman and Apple has been playing its cards very close to its chest for the last six months.

Assuming that they release it this fall how much can Apple do in a year's timeframe? Build a new 3D GUI in a year? I highly doubt it.

Who says they're not working on a staged timeline that was planned out before OS X was released, using a progression of technology that's being steadily slotted into place? We might see something intended for three years ago that just didn't have the necessary support or stability yet.

Actually, don't hurt me, I'm hoping that Jobs anounces tiger will be out Fall of 2005. Lets see something other this incremental jumping that has been occurring from rev to rev.

I agree. Lets see something more than 10-20% performance boosts, better networking, more consistent UI, better graphical implementation, patching of security flaws in third party components like Apache, better backwards compatibility, and more features.

Love or hate Longhorn or what MS is doing with the OS at least MS is going balls to the wall with the OS. Lets see the same with 10.4 Tiger take another 6-8 months and put out something that will blow away and shut up the Thurrotts of the world.

Nothing will ever shut Thurott up. The man is an Energizer Bunny of stupid.

SiliconAddict said:
Ya and we won't discuss how many times OS X probably froze while it was in Alpha release :rolleyes: Brains. Its not just for rocket scientists anymore. Try this. The entire graphics engine of Longhorn is still in freaking ALPHA! And you are trying to run a game that probably runs right on top of that graphics engine. :rolleyes:

Don't demo a product that won't work. My dad's an engineer, and his company would get hammered if they did stuff like that. Of course, I suppose that militaries tend to be more demanding than Windows users. ;)

Phobophobia said:
There are so many posts in this topic contemplating how M$ will get people to buy such expensive computers, and it doesn't like seem like anyone has figured it out, yet. However, the answer is right in front of you. (Think Janus...)

You haven't been reading what I've been saying then, because almost 90% of what I've been saying about Longhorn is about TCI and DRM in general. This is a move to take over the content space as much as they have the desktop.

nmk said:
If Microsoft were stupid enough to destroy the budget computer market, they would leave the door open for Linux. Linux is already light enough that it had been ported to an iPod. Once someone makes a viable desktop distribution of Linux (MANY people would say that the current crop is viable) it would replace MS as the budget OS of choice. This is a scenario that would have very negative reprecussions for MS. I think that MS must be banking on the fact that budget PC's will be able to run Longhorn by the time it's released.

Or maybe Microsoft is wising up to the idea that cheap hardware and free OSes are about to devour the low end in the next few years. If nothing else, China is working on Red Flag and can crank an insane low-end if they feel like it. There are similar possibilities from Sony, Toshiba, and IBM at the moment, as well. It hasn't happened yet, but that doesn't mean Linux-on-Desktop isn't going to obliterate anyone who tries to compete down low. Not even Microsoft has an infinite amount of money to throw down a hole.

As I said before, the PC is a commodity to most people which is why the resale values for PC's is so low. Microsoft can not destroy the commodity PC market. If they try to do that, they'll simply destroy themselves. Say what you want about Bill Gates, but he is certainly not stupid. PC's will get cheaper and Longhorn will have to run on those systems.

No, it won't. If Bill can lock the content market the way he wants to, then you have to buy Longhorn and a Longhorn-capable system just to download music or movies. This isn't about the low-end anymore.

MorganX said:
I believe the actual 3D will be 3D over a 2D UI. I don't think a 3D UI will ever be useful. Just as reading a book is most efficient in 1D, so will a computer UI IMO.

There is no interface that is one dimensional. We always perceive at least two, except in the case of moebius strips and other oddities, and usually three just with our eyes. Also, if you think that there's no third-dimensional optimization in exiting UIs, I'd like to ask... What do you call tiled windows, the shifting of Expose, and other spatially oriented elements? Those shadows exist for a reason, and it's not just to look pretty. We perceive information based on depth, width, and height - three dimensions - and interface designers took advantage of that fact.

There are some specialized applications, like medicine, VR, VR with motion capture etc. But for the desktop, can it ever be more efficient to scroll through a 3D screen? I don't think so, we need smarter faster search in that case, not a true 3D object browsing.

Actually, we're better wired for object manipulation in space than we are for abstracting concepts, so a three-dimensional workspace (like Looking Glass appears to be moving towards) is more efficient for the average human being. It makes more sense to have object behave like real things than it does to assign them arbitrary characteristics, and it becomes more intuitive.
 
thatwendigo said:
Check your math. I said half a billion people who are capable of and probably own a computer, or thereabouts, most of whom will possess machines that have been bought used. This does not take into account large entities like governments, corporations, universities, and so on, who have massive amounts of money to invest in purchases.
.

Firstly you said half a billion have the resourse to own and about half of those actually have a computer.... in u.s. billions its a 1000 millions to a million

secondly my point is, why would microsoft miss out on hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) of sales to schools and businesses that cant afford the new hardware???

i agree they dont care about anything but money but to maximise return on ivestment and profit margins they need to sell as much as they can
 
Maybe whoever put this up should RTFA. It says it [can use] UP TO 1 TB. Christ. The current alpha install is like 1.5GB.

Am I the only one who bothered to read the article?
 
can people stop saying how **** longhorn looks? i mean right now its in alpha and ms is not showing off how great longhorn looks, but they are showing off its technologies inside longhorn which developers can use for their apps.
 
Show 'em OSX

If Gates is getting so excited about these small features which are pretty much already in OSX (e.g. movies playing in dock etc), maybe someone should be sent along to a windows display expo or sumthin, and demonstrate the present OSX under a different name and perhaps remove all apple icons from the screen , change some icons etc. And show how some of the major features in longhorn are incorporated in this OS, and then at the end reveal that the OS is in fact mac OSX and, shock horror:eek: is available for purchase now, instead of in 3 odd years.

The only reason i think this might work is because of the massive ignorance amongst many Windoze users of what the mac OS is actually like.

Would be interesting to see the reaction from a crowd of the more ignorant PC ppl anyway. ;)
 
thatwendigo said:
Or maybe Microsoft is wising up to the idea that cheap hardware and free OSes are about to devour the low end in the next few years. If nothing else, China is working on Red Flag and can crank an insane low-end if they feel like it. There are similar possibilities from Sony, Toshiba, and IBM at the moment, as well. It hasn't happened yet, but that doesn't mean Linux-on-Desktop isn't going to obliterate anyone who tries to compete down low. Not even Microsoft has an infinite amount of money to throw down a hole.

I think very cheap or free software is going to become the norm, and that software has to be really good. Apple are into this mindset already - see iTunes, OSX, iLife, excellent packages for relatively little.

However clever Longhorn is or isnt going to be, I think MS business model is on to a good hiding in the near future because they have no way to leverage MS hardware sales from MS software which people arent going to be too keen on paying hundreds of dollars for.

Apple's cheap OS and iLife/open source software bundled on in-house hardware is a model that can sustain Apple at the mid to high end - they could easily include the $200 value of "free" bundled software in the hardware price) and continue to leave the low end PC and licencedl Windows market to fight itself to death.
 
AL-FAMOUS said:
Firstly you said half a billion have the resourse to own and about half of those actually have a computer.... in u.s. billions its a 1000 millions to a million

No I said a billion could probably afford a computer of some sort, that about half of those probably own one, and that less than half of that is new systems purchases. These are private users, not corporations and other big-ticket buyerrs, and the market is increasingly polarizing into big purchases that use the latest operating systems and hardware, people who either know how or are learning how to upgrade their system, and the cheapskates who buy $400 machines at Wal-Mart.

As Linux grows to become more friendly to average users, it will easily supplant Microsoft in the $300-600 range, because nobody wants to have to shell out OEM licensing fees on a computer that cheap. It almost completely kills your profits, which is why so many of the cheap manufacturers are either complete crap or going out of business.

secondly my point is, why would microsoft miss out on hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) of sales to schools and businesses that cant afford the new hardware???

What sounds better to you, as a company? Making a lot of money supporting a premium product that guarantees loyalty through the coercion of controlling all media access, giving your buddies in the hardware industry a boost against the encroachment of cheap linux boxes, and also getting media companies on your side, or having the nightmare situation of working with the cesspool that is low-end computing?

If Microsoft is willing to sacrifice the crap and move to a more service-oriented model, they could almost certainly patch up their security issues, fix driver incompatibilities, and move to a more branded approach. Have hardware that is specifically certified to work for Windows, slap a 'Microsoft Partner' sticker on there, and only let the good manufacturers play. Sure, you might be able to get your system to run it otherwise, but you're not elligible for support from the company.

i agree they dont care about anything but money but to maximise return on ivestment and profit margins they need to sell as much as they can

You can profit quite easily on not supporting everything in the market. Look at Apple.
 
thatwendigo said:
No I said a billion could probably afford a computer of some sort, that about half of those probably own one, and that less than half of that is new systems purchases. These are private users, not corporations and other big-ticket buyerrs, and the market is increasingly polarizing into big purchases that use the latest operating systems and hardware, people who either know how or are learning how to upgrade their system, and the cheapskates who buy $400 machines at Wal-Mart.

As Linux grows to become more friendly to average users, it will easily supplant Microsoft in the $300-600 range, because nobody wants to have to shell out OEM licensing fees on a computer that cheap. It almost completely kills your profits, which is why so many of the cheap manufacturers are either complete crap or going out of business.



What sounds better to you, as a company? Making a lot of money supporting a premium product that guarantees loyalty through the coercion of controlling all media access, giving your buddies in the hardware industry a boost against the encroachment of cheap linux boxes, and also getting media companies on your side, or having the nightmare situation of working with the cesspool that is low-end computing?

If Microsoft is willing to sacrifice the crap and move to a more service-oriented model, they could almost certainly patch up their security issues, fix driver incompatibilities, and move to a more branded approach. Have hardware that is specifically certified to work for Windows, slap a 'Microsoft Partner' sticker on there, and only let the good manufacturers play. Sure, you might be able to get your system to run it otherwise, but you're not elligible for support from the company.



You can profit quite easily on not supporting everything in the market. Look at Apple.

exactly look at apple...... 3percent microsoft 95percent.....
i cant wait to see what happens...
as i company i would want to sell one billion copies rather than 250 millions... simple

there will be cheep machines running longhorn...
 
Chaszmyr said:
Moore's law hold up? are you kidding? In the last 10 and a half months Intel has only gone from 3.2 to 3.4ghz (Granted there have been improvements other than clock frequency)

You're making the assumption that Intel is releasing as products the stuff that its R&D people are developing, which I'm 99% sure is wrong.

3.4Ghz is more than most people need; even with Windows XP its just about enough to do word processing in (</sarcastic>) -- the only people it would appeal to are hardcore gamers (and I do a lot of gaming, at 1600x1200, quite adequately on a Athlon 2100+), and people doing video editing and that kind of thing.

Basically Intel has got to the stage where people have more power than they need, all they're doing now is competing with AMD in the "mine is bigger/better/faster" than yours category so it looks good for them in the benchmarks, e. g. AMD releases a new fast chip and Intel follow suite.

By holding back releasing faster chips that no-one needs they're able to reduce costs such as in R&D (e.g. less people needed to develop new chips), and also be sure that processor speeds _can_ increase in the future when need be, without hitting a brick wall too quickly.

You might have noticed that if you plot processor cost against Mhz you can get a nice exponential curve; it's in Intel's interest to keep slower chips at the highest price for the longest time possible to get more money.
 
i'm amazed. i can't believe that microsoft has actually succeeded in making things even more un-intuitive. when i look at the screen shots, there's no way the ui elements will tell you what to do with each, and where to find what you're looking for.

they have managed to implement a graphical command-line interface :) they don't have a clue what's a gui should be...

the way they "progress" it seems that linux is easier to use than windows when longhorn is released ;)
 
Everyone can judge longhorn all they want. But it's important to remember that what you see is nothing like what longhorn will be when it is finally finished. This is early alpha stuff. The theme, the functionality etc, all this will change a hell of a lot by the time it is actually on shop shelves.
 
pjkelnhofer said:
Oh yeah, that is pretty confusing, Floppy Drive, CD Drive, etc.

What could these things mean?

Excuse the sarcasm, I am in a crappy mood today.

Floppy? What´s that?

Seriously, who´ll be using those in 2007 on a system with the specs MS mentioned?
 
People seem to have become really hung up on the specs that were posted

"Microsoft is expected to recommend that the "average" Longhorn PC feature a dual-core CPU running at 4 to 6GHz; a minimum of 2 gigs of RAM; up to a terabyte of storage; a 1 Gbit, built-in, Ethernet-wired port and an 802.11g wireless link; and a graphics processor that runs three times faster than those on the market today."

That is the recomended average.... the same for Win2000 was P450 256 Mb of Ram and an 8Gb HD. 2000 actually runs perfectly fine (or as fine as an M$ OS does run!) on a P200 64Mb Ram and a 4Gb HD.

Therefore we can probably suggest that Longhorn will run OK on a 2-3 Ghz proc, 1Gb Ram (though 2Gb isn't far fetched) and 500Gb HD. It will probably be advisable not to turn on the eye candy at that spec... but it will run on the lowest tier level of detail.
 
edesignuk said:
Everyone can judge longhorn all they want. But it's important to remember that what you see is nothing like what longhorn will be when it is finally finished. This is early alpha stuff. The theme, the functionality etc, all this will change a hell of a lot by the time it is actually on shop shelves.


correct but i bet it will still be years behind apple
 
AL-FAMOUS said:
exactly look at apple...... 3percent microsoft 95percent.....

No, you don't get it. Microsoft is about to be treated to their own tactics. Linux on the desktop, with WINE and related APIs, will make Windows irrelevant at the low end. The machines and the implementation, as long as they're good enough, will beat anything that they can afford to do.

as i company i would want to sell one billion copies rather than 250 millions... simple

Let's try a simple math experiment here. Assume that each unit costs you $50, but that if you sell a billion you only charge $100 for them. Now charge $300 or $400 for the quarter-billion.

50*1,000,000,000=50,000,000,000
100*1,000,000,000=100,000,000,000
100,000,000,000-50,000,000,000=50,000,000,000

50*250,000,000=12,500,000,000
300*250,000,000=75,000,000,000
75,000,000,000-12,500,000,000=62,500,000,000

Volume is not the be-all and end-all of profit. Apple is one of two profitbale OEMs at the moment, and yet they ship a much smaller number of units.

there will be cheep machines running longhorn...

You still have yet to show me a single reason why this is necessarily true.
 
Moore's Law

wordmunger said:
It's not likely to be in full distribution until 2007, and if Moore's Law holds up, the typical new system should be running at about 12 GHz by then. bovine proportions!

Moore's Law is about transistor count, not clock cycles... And even if it was it hasn't been holding up very good for the past two years.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.