Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Unlikely to Reach Supply-Demand Balance Until Next Year

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While the iPhone X launches November 3, with pre-orders beginning October 27, reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes Apple's high-end smartphone won't achieve complete supply-demand equilibrium until next year.


In his latest research note with KGI Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said customer demand for the iPhone X won't be fully met until at least the first half of 2018 due to supply constraints.
We believe the fullscreen design and facial recognition features will drive replacement demand for the iPhone X. However, due to supply constraints, we expect market demand won't be fully met before 1H18. We revise down our forecast for 2017F iPhone X shipments from 45-50 million to around 40 million units, but we therefore revise up our 2018 iPhone X shipment estimate to 80-90 million units.
In fewer words, getting an iPhone X in your hands may prove especially challenging this holiday shopping season.

In addition to supply constraints, Kuo said the reason why iPhone X pre-orders won't begin for another six weeks is likely because Apple doesn't want to cannibalize sales of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus pre-orders began at 12:01 a.m. Pacific Time today. The devices launch Friday, September 22.

Earlier this week, Kuo said Apple's iPhone X production was less than 10,000 units per day, but the yield may be increasing as Apple ramps up mass production. He anticipated the iPhone X will remain in "severe short supply for a while."

Kuo also anticipated that a gold iPhone X would encounter some production problems and initially be available only in "extremely low volume," or launch at a later date, but Apple said the iPhone X comes only in Silver and Space Gray.

In today's research note, he said the lack of a gold color echoes his production concerns, but he didn't elaborate if he still thinks the iPhone X will eventually be released in gold like the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.

Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Unlikely to Reach Supply-Demand Balance Until Next Year
 

GrumpyMom

macrumors G3
Sep 11, 2014
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I guess it's a good thing I like my iPhone 7 Plus so much, then. Sigh. Oh Apple. Customers are getting a bit fed up of you announcing "magical" new products and then really making them magical as in, like unicorns, so we can't find them without sifting through rumors of sightings.
 

Relentless Power

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Years into the making, and Timmy still couldn't secure a successful launch. I wouldn't expect anything less from the guy who was brought in to Apple by SJ for his expertise in operations.
This is not a fair statement. You can't state that Cook could not secure a successful launch, because the iPhone X has not even launched yet. If that means it takes longer for the iPhone X to launch, I don't want a rushed product to begin with. Not to mention, this is not going to stop the iPhone X from selling any less. This iPhone will sell out in under three minutes or less, and be the most successful iPhone likely ever.
 
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mike1123

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I never thought of it that way, probably because I don't see the target markets as overlapping too much. The way I see it, there are two groups of people in the market for a new iPhone:

1. Those who want the latest and greatest, whether it be because they are early adopters of tech or they like to show it off.

2. Those who have accepted the yearly iPhone upgrade process as the norm due to carrier instistence and have no reason not to upgrade.

I would say the former group is more likely to go for the iPhone X, and the latter group would get the iPhone 8/8+. Not to mention, there is a significant cost differential, whether it be materially significant or psychologically significant.
 

macduke

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Jun 27, 2007
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I'm so set on getting an iPhone X at launch that I actually practiced placing preorders this morning so that I could be really fast at it next month. Yeah, I'm a loser, but I'm a loser with a system and have never missed a preorder launch day window for the iPhone. The only thing I haven't figured out yet is white or black? I'm thinking white will have lower preorders, which could increase my odds, and it's kind of a unique look with the black front, white back, and chrome band which harkens back to the original iPhone. This is the first time that I could go either way, because honestly I prefer the black front and everything else is secondary.
 

Relentless Power

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Jul 12, 2016
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I hope this doesn't come off as trollish, it's just a question, but does MacRumors have some sort of connection/relationship with Ming-Chi Kuo/KGI?
Ming Kuo likely makes his predictions based off insider supplier relations, and then he releases his statement based off his predictions. MacRumors just reports Ming Kuos predictions as any other tech site would. Nonetheless, he has a very accurate track record and I wouldn't say he is any less wrong here with this prediction either with the iPhone X supply.
 

bigjnyc

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Apr 10, 2008
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Years into the making, and Timmy still couldn't secure a successful launch. I wouldn't expect anything less from the guy who was brought in to Apple by SJ for his expertise in operations. :rolleyes:
Some things are just beyond your control man. There’s only so many OLED screens they can procure no matter how much money they have. Remember other manufacturers require OLED screens in mass quantities as well
 

Geert76

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Feb 28, 2014
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October 27th is gonna be a massive ''slaughter'' for the tens of millions of people around the world trying to get that iPhone X in the same minute ;)

If you order 5 minutes after the pre order starts, you'll get a confirmation email some what later with your shipping times '' April 22th-29th 2018" :eek::oops:
 

rGiskard

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Aug 9, 2012
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Could I please have advice from some early adoption experts?

What is the best way to score a new iPhone X: go to a brick and mortar Apple Store on the 3rd, or pre-order at 3am on the 27th? I'd like to have one before December.
 
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