Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Unlikely to Reach Supply-Demand Balance Until Next Year

[5105973]

The sales of their products would indicate otherwise....

I did not say it would hurt sales. We are just aggravated by it. I'm still buying!

 

[SactoGuy18]

Given that Samsung Display is the only company in the world making the AMOLED panel for the iPhone X, supplies will stay constrain probably right through the production cycle of the iPhone X. I believe that LG's AMOLED cellphone display production line becomes operational by the summer of 2018, and that could make it possible for Apple to sell a lot more AMOLED display iPhones.

 

[AgentAnonymous]

What absolute nonsense.

Math isn't nonsense because you disagree with it.

 

[colbertnation]

I'm not sure what is with the ridiculous attitude towards Tim Cook.

Apple don't 'owe' us a new iPhone every year in September. R&D, design, patents, alpha testing, beta testing, mass production assessment, quality control, training and so on all take time. And frankly, most people have no clue just how insane it is to launch a new product this complicated; especially on such a large scale.

They gave us a pretty awesome phone now, with an even better phone out in six weeks.

I'm not sure why that warrants eye rolling and snorts of derision. Apple are not magic. Nor is Tim Cook, neither was Steve Jobs.

You're absolutely right; Apple doesn't owe us a new phone every September (or new software in June). But it's an expectation they themselves have created for their fans, (loyal) customers, other consumers around the world, businesses, investors, etc. If anyone is to blame this expectation, it's Apple themselves.

You are also quite right about the enormous effort that is required in designing a phone, manufacturing it, and releasing it on such a large scale.

The eye rolling and derision at Tim Cook comes from the fact that the "pretty awesome phone [iPhone 8]" is nothing but a rehash of iPhone 6, a phone that was released 4 years ago. It is not innovative in the same sense that iPhone X is. And it's not just about a form factor change; it is about the technology as well. I'll spare you the details.

Tim Cook had at least 2 years, if not 3 (or likely 4 since most corporations have an internal 5 year road map) to start looking at the 10th anniversary of iPhone, and think about what sort of iPhone that should be released then (and what phones to release before then. It'd appear that Tim Cook chose to drag the iPhone 6 design on for 4 years so that a redesign would hit the 10th year anniversary mark). A competent and visionary CEO challenges and guides their company's teams to come up with a product that is innovative and amazing. Then that CEO ensures that the challenge is met in time, and all the prep work is done in time to ensure a successful launch. Did SJ do all of that? No. He had flaws, and he had botched iPhone launches. Hell, the very first OG iPhone was a botched launch.

What would you have done to make the launch, as you characterize it, successful? Genuinely curious.

This is not a fair statement. You can't state that Cook could not secure a successful launch, because the iPhone X has not even launched yet. If that means it takes longer for the iPhone X to launch, I don't want a rushed product to begin with. Not to mention, this is not going to stop the iPhone X from selling any less. This iPhone will sell out in under three minutes or less, and be the most successful iPhone likely ever.

What is a successful launch? IMO it's not a "sell out on day one" event. Any product can "sell out." You just don't produce enough to meet demand. It's an easy way to create hype, and is taught in MBA schools worldwide - including Tim's alma mater. A successful launch imo is one where it can launch on an expected date (again, an expectation that Apple themselves brought on to themselves), and meet demand soon without a shortage that might last months.

Coming back to the derision at Tim Cook: this guy was supposed to be a master at operations. He never was and still isn't a product guy or a visionary CEO. He was tasked from SJ to streamline Apple operations, and it was he that disbanded Apple's own manufacturing in favor of contract manufacturing in China. Given his experience and background in operations, and now a $200B cash pile, most of it overseas - which is perfect when paying vendors in Asia, it is troubling to see him not be able to secure supplies for iPhone X for launch at the "usual" or "expected" date. Not only that, but we keep hearing that there will be a shortage well into 2018. That to me and any business minded individual is not a successfully secured launch. And when you have had years to gear up to this, you cannot expect people to be praising you.

 

[OS X Dude]

I wonder, if supplies will be so severely constrained, how Apple will divvy out what launch stock they have? Will it affect carrier/AASP availability since Apple will likely keep the lion’s share for iUP and Apple Store customers?

They will desperately try to avoid shortages running into March-April, unless the X won’t see an update in the usual annual timetable. Maybe as this is a ‘special’ release it will see an update every 18-24 months? Otherwise, people will just wait for the next in the X line.

 

[DeepIn2U]

The iPhone X was delayed because they can't make enough of them fast enough.

Do you REALLY believe this?
November 2016 rumours showed up about R&D for facial recognition. This doesn’t occur when suppliers cannot make production samples nor even full out production. Apple and Cook alone with Supply Chain has PLENTY of time to deliver mass production volumes for components.

Today Bloomberg is reporting Apple has asked supplies to reduce production volumes for components for iPhone 8. Analysts see this as a) low demand for the finished product, others see this as b) low component supplies matching high volume supplies so lets balance out order from apple.

The thing is why announce iphone x if the stock isn't ready?

The HYPE machine is in FULL affect!!

1) hype up new product.
2) price is exorbitant yet huge profit margins per unit.
3) sales team reaches out to Supply Chain and suppliers. Collusion about limited parts is discussed and agreed upon (purchases of supplies guaranteed through several years).
4) public news about Supply constraints.

This all equals to a product hat has immense launch quarter demand that Supply is NOt sufficient for ... this feeds fans into an upgrade frenzy.
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(Edited quote for focus)
Andit's not just about a form factor change;

Guys please stop calling minor styling queues as a lack of form factor!

Form factor is a change in the form of the structure: Nokia Taco Phone (Ngage), Nokia Lipstick phone, Nokia Communicator series (9000 - E90). These are different form factors.

Every iPhone and Android device launched after 2012 - save for the QWERTY Motorola Droid on Verizon) has had the same physical form factor:

Vertical rectangle, front covered over 80% with glass, metal or plastic/polycarbonate external frame/case, internal vertical (in-line with screen) battery (removable or non-removable). So much more but man it’s the same form.

I place any iPhone in your hand with you blindfolded for 30mins prior to doing so you’d be able to tell which model based on significant design queues (metal, plastic, glass back, stainless steel sides, aluminum sides, camoheres edges, smooth edges), etc. Yet you’d hold each mode indistinguishably the same from one another: form factors!