Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone XR Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Slashes Shipment Estimates

[MistrSynistr]

When they hit that trillion mark, there's nowhere to go but up for the shareholders. So they worked themselves into this shoot. They now have to maintain that.

 

[Zimmy68]

Did they really expect it to be a huge seller?
They priced it just under premium level for a 5 year old LCD tech phone.
I thought it would be good for people wanting the X experience without breaking the bank but I never thought it would sell that much.

 

[triton100]

Kuo is usually right about leaks of upcoming products, but wrong about sales estimates every year.

His crystal ball predicting sales is not as reliable as his contacts at Foxconn who leak product info.

And it’s perfect because the stock jumps after he and there’s have tempered expectations.

 

[gwhizkids]

It's on the homepage of apple.com as well. Now that they've spilled the discount milk there's no going back. People won't buy until there's a sale.

That's economics for you, especially in a segment that is fast approaching commodity-status. Its why cars seem to always have rebates on them.

I'm not going to jump on this bandwagon. Everyone was on the "iPhone X isn't selling" bandwagon last year and Apple's profits went through the roof. At the end of the day, making money is the objective, not unit sales.

 

[ArtOfWarfare]

And he knows this how?

There's a lot of parts suppliers for the iPhone. Track a few of them and you can have a decent idea. Or you can track shipments. Or you can track trucks around a factory via aerial or satellite photos. Or just conduct a survey and find out how many people are buying it.

===

I almost feel like this was Apple's plan all along here. They saw that they had a total dud of an iPhone, realized it was going to be overpriced at any price, so just chose to shoot high.

Might even be some price anchoring at play here. Intentionally sabotage this iPhone, so next year when it's $100 cheaper people don't think it's such an awful price.

 

[AustinIllini]

Smart phones are commodities now. The market in developed countries are mostly saturated.

It honestly makes no sense to abandon the actual affordable models in favor of these uber expensive models. Growth is in poorer countries.

 

[brofkand]

That's economics for you, especially in a segment that is fast approaching commodity-status. Its why cars seem to always have rebates on them.

I'm not going to jump on this bandwagon. Everyone was on the "iPhone X isn't selling" bandwagon last year and Apple's profits went through the roof. At the end of the day, making money is the objective, not unit sales.

Yeah the unit sales don't mean as much now that smartphones are saturated in markets like the US. Apple can have a very nice business selling fewer products at higher prices. So far that seems to be their new strategy.

 

[groadyho]

Maybe now is the time for better XR carrier promotions. I would have considered some but the offers were nowhere near as good as years prior.

I see Bogo sales, tmobile has an unlimited plan with an xr for $40 total. The sales seem good. My problem is the carriers, atleast att doesn't let me pay cash for the bogo like I did with the s9+. I don't want to pay monthly.

 

[cardfan]

It’s the people’s phone. The best phone for most people. What happened? It couldn’t miss. Reviewers, although they wouldn’t buy one either, highly recommended it for the unwashed.

Poor apple. But at least it should get them moving and trying harder. Good for apple fans.

 

[2807]

Still, they estimate sales near 40 million? Hard to believe that is a bad business decision.
However, I will not be buying. Too big.

I am happy to buy a new phone, but the new options just don’t sway me from my 7.

It’s been a long run with me and Apple, but they just stopped making products that entice me to upgrade from what I have. Face ID and no home button are ridiculous change-for-the-sake-of-change tactics, and resulted in turning me away, not bringing me in.

What a drag.

 

[AustinIllini]

That's economics for you, especially in a segment that is fast approaching commodity-status. Its why cars seem to always have rebates on them.

I'm not going to jump on this bandwagon. Everyone was on the "iPhone X isn't selling" bandwagon last year and Apple's profits went through the roof. At the end of the day, making money is the objective, not unit sales.

Yup. After this year, I'm going to stop buying phones on day one. Nearly every flagship has had some kind of sale (Pixel 3 was discounted $100, Pixel 3 XL $150). To me, those are the selling prices now.

 

[StellarVixen]

Those bezels hurts my eyes, more than the OLED on XS would.

 

[Andres Cantu]

I see Bogo sales, tmobile has an unlimited plan with an xr for $40 total. The sales seem good. My problem is the carriers, atleast att doesn't let me pay cash for the bogo like I did with the s9+. I don't want to pay monthly.

Yeah, some offers are ok, but it’s usually for new customers, where before even current customers could trade-in older iPhones for good offers.

Looks like they all want to keep us locked-in for as long as possible.

 

[diipii]

Hey Fanboys, go look at the wall. there's writing on it.

 

[Quu]

I don't think many are shocked by this, both the iPhone XR and XS are overpriced and with Apple you rarely see any discounts throughout the life time of the product.

People compare it to the Samsung Galaxy S9 where some configurations cost $999 but within just 1-2 months you can get it for $699 and within 6 months for $499. With the iPhone XS it's $999 and will at best be $899 from select retailers in 10 months time.

The pricing is just outrageous.

 

[groadyho]

Yeah, some offers are ok, but it’s usually for new customers, where before even current customers could trade-in older iPhones for good offers.

Looks like they all want to keep us locked-in for as long as possible.

Exactly. And you're right about new custies or you need to have DirectTV. For some reason att let's you pay cash for Android bogos but not iPhone ones.

 

[alexgowers]

The XR would have sold more if it was 399 but the profits would have been vastly reduced if not eradicated. They have to pay for the more advanced tech somehow and I think from a business perspective with R&D costs, selling fewer phones with margins was the right choice. Next year tooling etc will be lower and the price can plummet. The iPhone X2 models are the ones I'm more worried about next year. The issue being apple has tied itself down to faceID and would need massive retooling to compete with what is going to be on the market. A notch-less x2 x2max is the only way to upsell to iPhone users next year. They have to go under screen fingerprint and work out how to hide the camera.

 

[gsmornot]

They shoulda made this thing 5.3” and priced it at $649.00.

It would be a completely different story.

I've seen people my age using smaller phones and good for them but my eyes tell my pocket to shut up. They want the larger display so they can read it. Ha.

 

[Steve121178]

They should lower the prices or people are going to switch to Android or look somewhere else.

Too late, it's already happening.

 

[brofkand]

Yeah, some offers are ok, but it’s usually for new customers, where before even current customers could trade-in older iPhones for good offers.

Looks like they all want to keep us locked-in for as long as possible.

The way to get good deals on phones and cell service is the same way as home internet, cable tv, etc. - be open to switch providers every few years. All the good deals go to new customers. I hate the business model, but that's the way it is right now.

 

[gsmornot]

The display on XS looks so much better to the point I would pay the $200. The display is the component you are going to be looking at all day. XR has a lower PPI than the 8 Plus it replaces and wont be as sharp.

I really can't see a big difference in day to day type use. Perhaps in a video but I use an iPad for that. Holding my wifes phone next to mine I could focus in on black levels as a comparison but really, both displays are plenty good for the majority of users.

 

[iSee]

"Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone XR Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected*"

* Lower than he expected.

This a pretty funny. Ming-Chi Kuo big story today is that he was wrong yesterday.
How great to be an analyst.

 

[nfl46]

Simple fix: drop the price for $100 or so, and sales will increase. But Apple is greedy so that won’t be happening.

$649 starting price is definitely reasonable for what the XR offers.

 

[groadyho]

The XR would have sold more if it was 399 but the profits would have been vastly reduced if not eradicated. They have to pay for the more advanced tech somehow and I think from a business perspective with R&D costs, selling fewer phones with margins was the right choice. Next year tooling etc will be lower and the price can plummet. The iPhone X2 models are the ones I'm more worried about next year. The issue being apple has tied itself down to faceID and would need massive retooling to compete with what is going to be on the market. A notch-less x2 x2max is the only way to upsell to iPhone users next year. They have to go under screen fingerprint and work out how to hide the camera.

I don't understand why people are worried/against a very small top bezel like on the s9+. I'd rather have a small bezel than a notch. That notch bugs me to no end, like fingernails raking a chalkboard

 

[Andres Cantu]

Exactly. And you're right about new custies or you need to have DirectTV. For some reason att let's you pay cash for Android bogos but not iPhone ones.

Wow, I didn’t know about that. How weird. Probably to prevent people from selling the other iPhone right away since they keep their value very well, especially during launch year.
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The way to get good deals on phones and cell service is the same way as home internet, cable tv, etc. - be open to switch providers every few years. All the good deals go to new customers. I hate the business model, but that's the way it is right now.

That is very true, unfortunately.