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aca345

macrumors newbie
Jul 31, 2007
27
26
Ontario, Canada
While we have to take any estimates like this with their due grain of salt, as others noted this is not unexpected given the saturation of the cell phone market and the high entry prices. However, I will also say that I upgraded from a 7 to the Xr and it is an incredible phone. I am a huge tech nerd, and I could not justify the premium (especially in Canada) for the Xs or the Max. Plus, you get the same screen "real estate" on the Xr as you do on the Max, so the benefit of the larger display on the Max in terms of content density was eliminated. I also prefer the colours on the LCD, and the handling of movement/refresh. But maybe that's just me.

I think the next few years of iPhone development will be interesting, hopefully the prices stabilize/go down slightly as they iterate on the X design and technology.
 

barkomatic

macrumors 601
Aug 8, 2008
4,521
2,826
Manhattan
A single bad year probably isn't going to change much at Apple. However, if super high prices and decreasing sales continue then Apple might consider allowing the Apple Watch to be compatible with Android. That's one product getting lots of excitement and opening to Android would open a significant new market.

Apple could even allow Android users with Apple Watches to use iMessage both on their watch and their smartphone.
 

Abazigal

Contributor
Jul 18, 2011
19,576
22,044
Singapore
Kuo is usually right about leaks of upcoming products, but wrong about sales estimates every year.

His crystal ball predicting sales is not as reliable as his contacts at Foxconn who leak product info.

That’s because his sources come from Foxconn, so while this might give him insight into what feature the next iphone or ipad might have, there’s no way he can have accurate info on iphone sales.

He’s basically shooting from the hip when it comes to device sales, but I am sure the critics here are just frothing at the mouth for the next piece of negative Apple news, and will happily overlook this inconvenient fact.

Jeez. Apple Stores also have easels holding up a poster about “XR starting at $449”. Never seen some type of promo like that.

I really hope they learned their lesson this year. Sheesh.

And then Apple announces revenue of 92-95 million next quarter.

What lesson were you hoping that they learnt again?
 
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GuruZac

macrumors 68040
Sep 9, 2015
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A combination of factors here including the fact that the iPhone 6S/6S Plus, iPhone 7/7Plus running iOS 12 are still very good phones with more than adequate speed. The other component is Apple has stepped in to the ludicrous territory for phone pricing. They essentially jumped up from a $949 256GB 7 Plus to a $1449 XS Max. That's $500 increase for double the storage, and let's be honest, storage isn't that expensive, not even close. The XS should top out at $949 and XS Max at $1049. I hope Apple learns a lesson here that they cannot continue to push pricing higher and higher the rate they have been.
 

x-evil-x

macrumors 603
Jul 13, 2008
5,576
3,234
I see Bogo sales, tmobile has an unlimited plan with an xr for $40 total. The sales seem good. My problem is the carriers, atleast att doesn't let me pay cash for the bogo like I did with the s9+. I don't want to pay monthly.
Why can’t you put it on the monthly payment plan and just pay it off? Don’t see why you can’t do that
 

iMi

Suspended
Sep 13, 2014
1,624
3,200
I work for one of the two biggest carriers and the XR is by far our best selling phone. So this news comes at a surprise to me.

There is a difference between forecast and demand. Just because the sales are off from Apple's forecast doesn't mean the demand is weak. Maybe they forecasted too high. The lineup has expanded considerably and maybe they didn't account for it properly.
 
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GuruZac

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Sep 9, 2015
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The display on XS looks so much better to the point I would pay the $200. The display is the component you are going to be looking at all day. XR has a lower PPI than the 8 Plus it replaces and wont be as sharp.
This is only applicable to you. The screen on the XS is not so much better. I looked at both several times at both the Apple Store and at Verizon, and there's just not that big of a difference unless you are staring at the phone 3 inches from your face. This is one of those so overblown criticisms. Yes the OLED display on the XS is better, but the phone is NOT worth the price tag vs the XR for most users for what you actually get.
 
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KrazyBear15

macrumors regular
Apr 26, 2011
101
117
South Dakota
Sounding like a broken record now...think we know smartphones in general the demand isn’t as high as it was before.

This. Almost everyone in my family and friends circle hasn't upgraded this year or even last year. Most people I know have an iPhone 7 Plus or maybe an 8. The 2 year upgrade cycle is dead due mostly do ridiculous prices, not as much the size.
 

Ramchi

macrumors 65816
Dec 13, 2007
1,088
563
India
As I predicted earlier biggest villains of XR is XS and XS MAX, biggest villain for XS and XS MAX is XR. You just jkee them both next to each other and confuse the customer, they don't take neither!

XR has to be significantly (not just 10%-20%) reduce price for people to convince themselves go for XR if Apple feels compelled NOT to reduce prices of XS and XS MAX. If you lower prices of XS & XS MAX then people will go after those two instead of XR.

Either way XR is a loss-loss product line!
 

yaxomoxay

macrumors 604
Mar 3, 2010
7,410
34,211
Texas
This. Almost everyone in my family and friends circle hasn't upgraded this year or even last year. Most people I know have an iPhone 7 Plus or maybe an 8. The 2 year upgrade cycle is dead due mostly do ridiculous prices, not as much the size.

Agreed. My wife has a 7 and she doesn't really want to replace it, I have an X and I don't think the XS/XR is worth it.
I wonder if it's time for Apple to release the iPhone every two years.
 
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1rottenapple

macrumors 601
Apr 21, 2004
4,702
2,719



iPhone XR demand has been lower than expected, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has slashed his overall iPhone shipment forecast by 20 percent for the first quarter of 2019. He now expects Apple to move 38-42 million iPhones in the quarter, down from his original estimate of 47-52 million.

iphonexr.jpg

Kuo, in a research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors:Apple reported sales of 52.2 million iPhones in the first quarter of 2018, which corresponds with the second quarter of Apple's fiscal year, so as few as 38 million units in the first quarter of 2019 would be a significant year-over-year decline.

For the iPhone XR in particular, Kuo has revised his shipment estimate to 15-20 million for the first quarter, down from 20-25 million.

Kuo estimates annual iPhone shipments will fall between 205 million and 210 million in 2018, and based on that, forecasts that annual iPhone shipments in 2019 will decline up to 10 percent to a range of 188 million to 194 million. This would fall below Wall Street's consensus estimate of around 212 million units in 2019.

While this news paints a pessimistic outlook for the iPhone, declining unit sales will likely be at least partially offset by the rising average selling price of iPhones. Apple's latest iPhone lineup is its most expensive yet, with the $349 iPhone SE discontinued and the iPhone XS Max topping out at $1,449 with 512GB of storage.

Kuo:Apple will no longer be disclosing unit sales in its quarterly earnings reports going forward, so investors will have to look towards iPhone revenue to determine how well the handset is selling. If unit sales are particularly bad, then a rising average selling price might not be enough to hide the weakness.

Apple has been aggressively marketing its latest iPhones. On its website, for example, the iPhone XR and iPhone XS take up the entire homepage with advertised starting prices of $449 and $699 respectively. However, each have an asterisk that leads to fine print that says pricing is based on an iPhone 7 Plus trade-in.

iphone-xr-apple-homepage.jpg

Apple's earnings results for the first quarter of 2019 will likely be released in May, so we're still some time away from real numbers.

Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone XR Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Slashes Shipment Estimates
It a pretty big admission for Apple to discount the iPhone on their main page. The sales must be disappointing.
 

Mescagnus

macrumors 6502
Jul 12, 2008
492
986
I'm starting to think this guy is simply manipulating Apple stock price with these estimates, and buys the stock now that it's down. Then come January & Apple's earnings that yet again beat estimates, he'll make a small fortune. Easy to abuse (use) the fame he's got as an analyst.
 
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rmoliv

macrumors 68000
Dec 20, 2017
1,572
3,117
LCD display in 2018 for 879 euros? Hell no. Only Apple fanatics like me would spend that on an iPhone with the XR specs. They may call it fancy names like Liquid Retina, Haptic Touch and whatnot, the average consumer won't fall for it anymore.
 

cardfan

macrumors 601
Mar 23, 2012
4,220
5,309
Again, nothing to be upset about. A winning team sometimes needs a down season or a couple of losses to get back to work. Imagine if everything was roses right now, this would only tell Apple they could keep on doing what they're doing.

The real problem over in Apple land is that they're still so reliant on iphone. Whether they lower prices or not, demand is what it is. They are still much an iphone company. Tim hasn't done much to mitigate this. This services talk is just that...talk..and its growth will quickly flatten as well as the bulk of services is app store (under fire on the 30% thing), google, and apple care (just increased it). Apple sells hardware. Apple must find more hardware lines to sell. Take something like airpods. Apple needs more of those type things. Simple as that. Apple music, apple pay, apple's sad attempt at being netflix, etc isn't really material here.
 
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Petetastic

macrumors member
Jan 2, 2018
57
89
I love Apple’s reliability and support, and that I can just walk into a store and they’ll take care of me. But it’s never just the phone when you buy one: it’s a new case; the increased price in repairs; the AppleCare; and a new glass cover for the screen (which may or may not work well depending on your skills, since there’s no applicator similar to Belkin’s available for consumers; and Belkin charges $40, which is a racket). At the end of the day you’ve devoted a lot more time and money on top of the normal purchase.

You can argue it’s worth it, and I would agree. I just don’t have that kind of money.
 
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GuruZac

macrumors 68040
Sep 9, 2015
3,598
11,484
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The XR would have sold more if it was 399 but the profits would have been vastly reduced if not eradicated. They have to pay for the more advanced tech somehow and I think from a business perspective with R&D costs, selling fewer phones with margins was the right choice. Next year tooling etc will be lower and the price can plummet. The iPhone X2 models are the ones I'm more worried about next year. The issue being apple has tied itself down to faceID and would need massive retooling to compete with what is going to be on the market. A notch-less x2 x2max is the only way to upsell to iPhone users next year. They have to go under screen fingerprint and work out how to hide the camera.
Yep, the notch will remain, albeit smaller I'm sure. I still believe Apple has stepped way too far with their pricing. This again is why the XR is actually a smarter buy for me. As tech bloggers have stated, "I get 95% of the XS experience for 75% of the cost."
 

ftaok

macrumors 603
Jan 23, 2002
6,487
1,572
East Coast
I'm starting to think this guy is simply manipulating Apple stock price with these estimates, and buys the stock now that it's down. Then come January & Apple's earnings that yet again beat estimates, he'll make a small fortune. Easy to abuse (use) the fame he's got as an analyst.
yah think?
 

dominiongamma

macrumors 68020
Oct 19, 2014
2,261
4,983
Phoenix. AZ
I'm starting to think this guy is simply manipulating Apple stock price with these estimates, and buys the stock now that it's down. Then come January & Apple's earnings that yet again beat estimates, he'll make a small fortune. Easy to abuse (use) the fame he's got as an analyst.
Or Apple became greedy and still isn’t learning about the pricing being too high
 
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