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Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X's TrueDepth Production Issues Stabilizing, Won't Affect Next Year's Models

flat five said:
he said iPhone X supply vs demand won't stabilize until 2018.
that is very likely going to be true.
[doublepost=1509294324][/doublepost]
i think a lot of people may have misinterpreted what he said.
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There was no misinterpretation. He has made it very clear that very few people would get their iPhone X relatively quickly. Based on how many people (at least here) have pre-ordered versus their expected delivery date, that is not true. I ordered forty minutes after pre-orders started and got November 15th as my delivery date, which is likely to be bumped up just like every other year. Verizon's webpage will show you December 1st delivery estimates, which is not THAT bad. This is the same as any other year.

People's point is that he made it seem like it would be the worst iPhone launch ever in terms of supply.
 
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SR71 said:
Lol wait, so now Kuo is saying supply is stable? Last week he was saying it was still going to be horrible and delays would cause people to have to wait till 2018 to get their iPhone X. Now he's saying supply is stable. All he's doing now is backtracking and acting like he was right all along. Such BS.
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He’s talking about 2018 phone, not the iPhone X.
 
Juan007 said:
Good job Tim Cook, figuring out the supply chain! I'd also like to point out that supplies for the iPhone X seem "better than expected", the doom and gloom reports about 0 supply were not true!
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It was never "0 supply," even hyperbolically so. Kuo said 3m for launch day, which isn't a whole lot, but isn't zero either. If you look at the anecdotal posts on MR, and it's my experience too, anyone who couldn't get into the Apple Store by 12:02 Pacific was pretty much shut out of many of the 256 model. By 12:10 when I was able to get in delivery was 2-3 weeks. So seems launch supply was indeed a bit thin but that Apple has improved production rates as Kuo said would happen. I don't see supplies "better than expect," but rather "as expected." You won't be able to walk into a random Apple Store this year and reliably be able to buy an iPhone. That's way Kuo always said would be the case.
 
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jft94 said:
There was no misinterpretation. He has made it very clear that very few people would get their iPhone X relatively quickly.
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very clear where? you have a link?
i don't remember him saying "very few people would get their iPhone X relatively quickly"
 
flat five said:
he said iPhone X supply vs demand won't stabilize until 2018.
that is very likely going to be true.
[doublepost=1509294324][/doublepost]
i think a lot of people may have misinterpreted what he said.

read it again:
https://www.macrumors.com/2017/09/15/kgi-iphone-x-supply-demand-balance-2018/
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From that article you linked (dated 10/15/17):

"Earlier this week, Kuo said Apple's iPhone X production was less than 10,000 units per day, but the yield may be increasing as Apple ramps up mass production. He anticipated the iPhone X will remain in "severe short supply for a while."

"...Kuo said customer demand for the iPhone X won't be fully met until at least the first half of 2018 due to supply constraints."
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And then four days after that, this report comes out (dated 10/19/17): https://www.macrumors.com/2017/10/20/kgi-iphone-x-production-woes-ending/.

In that he reiterates his previous statements and says:

"...[Kuo] expects that 2–3 million units will be shipped into distribution channels ahead of the launch. As a result, initial supplies will be very tight, as has been extensively rumored. Kuo says shipments will "pick up markedly" in the first quarter of 2018."
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So, no he wasn't even close to what supply was like in reality. Apple launched the iPhone X in 55 countries and Kuo says they only had 2-3 million for launch? Yeah... no. This was no different from any other iPhone preorder. No one has delivery dates in 2018, so he was way off with that too. Now that I reread everything, I really don't see anything he was right about. Supply was not tight, initial launch was similar to past preorders, no one received a 2018 ship date, and many carriers had enough stock for a November 10-17 delivery 12+ hours after preorders started. Does that sound like short supply to you because it doesn't to me.
 
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jft94 said:
There was no misinterpretation. He has made it very clear that very few people would get their iPhone X relatively quickly. Based on how many people (at least here) have pre-ordered versus their expected delivery date, that is not true. I ordered forty minutes after pre-orders started and got November 15th as my delivery date, which is likely to be bumped up just like every other year. Verizon's webpage will show you December 1st delivery estimates, which is not THAT bad. This is the same as any other year.

People's point is that he made it seem like it would be the worst iPhone launch ever in terms of supply.
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Please learn to read and comprehend what you’re reading. Kuo is talking about second half of fiscal year 2018 and phone(s) released in third and fourth quarter of 2018. Nothing about this year’s phone, which is 2017.
 
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LoveToMacRumors said:
No improvement in Face ID next year? Awesome, no reason to spend another grand on next year's iPhone
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It's not what he is saying. He's saying no major spec upgrade, i.e., no new sensors. It doesn't mean Apple won't continue to tweak it once they find out what is and isn't working with millions of unit's in the wild -- things that were hard to discover with just pre-production units.

But even so -- yes, probably not a reason to buy again next year though I suspect a larger "plus" model will be released next year with Apple Pencil support. That will be a reason for many.
 
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69Mustang said:
Before calling BS, please go back and re-read. This blurb is a follow up to the earlier blurb you referenced. He said supply would be horrible through the first half of 2018. This blurb says supply will stabilize by 2nd half of 2018:
"We believe shipments of new 2H18F iPhones will arrive on time under stable supply in late 3Q18F." -Kuo
There's no conflict between this week's and last week's proclamations. To be fair, it still could be BS, but not because of what you misinterpreted.;)
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But that's completely false. No one received a ship date into 2018. From what I've seen all orders are due to be delivery in December at the latest. Supply is no worse than it was for previous launches. It was harder to get the Jet Black iPhone's last year than it is to get the X this year. No matter what way you look at it, he was way off the mark.
 
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SR71 said:
From that article you linked (dated 10/15/17):



And then four days after that, this report comes out (dated 10/19/17): https://www.macrumors.com/2017/10/20/kgi-iphone-x-production-woes-ending/.

In that he reiterates his previous statements and says:



So, no he wasn't even close to what supply was like in reality. Apple launched the iPhone X in 55 countries and Kuo says they only had 2-3 million for launch? Yeah... no. This was no different from any other iPhone preorder. No one has delivery dates in 2018, so he was way off with that too. I don't see anything he was right about, now that I reread everything. Supply was not tight, initial launch was similar to past preorders, no one received a 2018 ship date, and many carriers had enough stock for November 10-17 deliveries 12+ hours after preorders started. Does that sound like short supply to you because it doesn't to me.
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i think the part that you're missing is that he never said pre-orders will have 2018 ship dates.. if you think this is what he predicted then i'm sorry but you're misinterpreting him.

he says supply/demand won't stabilize until 2018.. what that means is this -- you will not be able to walk into a store and buy one that's in stock.. or you won't be able to order one online that's in stock.. until 2018..
when the supply/demand is stabilized, there will be stock available for walk-ins or immediate shipping.

you see? or still no?
 
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joesegh said:
He’s saying supply will be stable for 2018 iPhones on account of using the same parts as the iPhone X. Very different.
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Isn't that how things are every year though? The initial launch supply sells out, then 4-6 weeks later production catches up and by the start of the new year supply is pretty much back to normal. That's what happening this year, but Kuo is making it sound like the X was going to have worst supply issues we'd ever seen, but in reality it wasn't that bad at all. I had a harder time getting a jet black iPhone last year than I did preordering the X.
 
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iamaydo said:
Please learn to read and comprehend what you’re reading. Kuo is talking about second half of fiscal year 2018 and phone(s) released in third and fourth quarter of 2018. Nothing about this year’s phone, which is 2017.
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I'm obviously not talking about 2018 iPhones. I'm talking about his predictions for the iPhone X.
 
Supacon said:
I'm so excited for the iPhone XI Plus!
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Me too! That’s going to be the phone to get! Question is though, will they go back to September launch or has that now been moved to November? And how will this timeline work out for those on 12 month payment cycles? :confused:
 
iamaydo said:
Please learn to read and comprehend what you’re reading. Kuo is talking about second half of fiscal year 2018 and phone(s) released in third and fourth quarter of 2018. Nothing about this year’s phone, which is 2017.
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I was more referring to what it says in the title "Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X's TrueDepth Production Issues Stabilizing."

Just last week Kuo was saying that supply wouldn't catch up with demand until the first half of 2018 indicating that supply would be extremely tight. He was wrong.

All I'm trying to point out here is that in the end this guy is just an analyst, and just like all other analysts he gets a lot of stuff wrong. And yet for some reason people take his word to be confirmation of what will happen, such as with the rumored iPhone X supply issues. Even when there were reports that suppliers were saying that they'd meet 2017 demand, Kuo still says the iPhone X will have severe supply issues. People believed him over what suppliers had said and in the end he was wrong.
 
SR71 said:
Just last week Kuo was saying that supply wouldn't catch up with demand until the first half of 2018 indicating that supply would be extremely tight. He was wrong.
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wrong how?

look:

Screen Shot 2017-10-29 at 12.50.18 PM.png


what that means is if you order a phone right now, the phone you're ordering isn't even made yet.. supply is extremely tight.. how are you interpreting this otherwise?
 
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SR71 said:
Lol wait, so now Kuo is saying supply is stable? Last week he was saying it was still going to be horrible and delays would cause people to have to wait till 2018 to get their iPhone X. Now he's saying supply is stable. All he's doing now is backtracking and acting like he was right all along. Such BS.
Click to expand...
Can you actually read, or..?

These replies are so ridiculous and predictable. Kuo is talking about next year’s release. The XI or whatever it will be called. He’s saying they’ll ship on time next year. The supply chain issues are being solved and next year shipping won’t be pushed back 2 months, as it was this year.
 
According to Apple’s website, the longest you have to wait for a phone is 6 weeks if you order right now. Well within the current year. All those rumors of having to wait until 2018 seem so stupid now.
 
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flat five said:
wrong how?

look:

View attachment 728860


what that means is if you order a phone right now, the phone you're ordering isn't even made yet.. supply is extremely tight.. how are you interpreting this otherwise?
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That's no different than any other iPhone launch though. That's exactly my point. A friend of mine ordered and iPhone X for T-Mobile at 1pm on the 27th. They got a November 15th delivery. Does that sound like extremely tight supply to you? Even well into the evening on the 27th, Best Buy and T-Mobile still had stock of iPhone X's in both colors and storage sizes for delivery on November 15th. It wasn't until around 8pm that night that I noticed Best Buy's delivery dates went up. So again, this was no different from any other iPhone launch. Hell, it was harder to get jet black last year than it is to get an X.
 
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