Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X's TrueDepth Production Issues Stabilizing, Won't Affect Next Year's Models

[roncron]

Kuo says:

"Apple won't repeat the mistake of supply disruption & delayed production as seen with iPhone X."

Did Apple make a mistake? What was the mistake?

I'm a little saddened by the amount of anger people seem to feel toward others here who disagree with them about whether Kuo's earlier forecast (of significant shortages lasting into 2018) was fair or b.s. Maybe we should talk about something less controversial instead, like Donald Trump.

 

[Glideslope]

MacRumors, right? Ok, X sales are actually below expectations. It went to 5-6 weeks almost immediately due to only having 2-3 million devices ready. Apple is now concerned about people holding off until after the Holidays and choking Q1? So, they get Ming (who obviously works for Apple now) to reassure those on the fence that there will be NO REVISIONS to next Septembers X So, pony up and hold out hope.

The above is purely an experiment in Conspiracy Theories.

 

[flat five]

Did Apple make a mistake? What was the mistake?

according to Kuo, the mistake was that the phone launched in November due to manufacturing delays..
and that next year, we’ll see the phone going back to the more normal release time in the 3rd quarter

 

[KingslayerG5]

Sophomore year usually gets better even if it's just a little. Look at some of the minor design refinements of the Pixel 2 XL. It improved although not that much.

Those first two years are mostly trial and error. I've asked some of friends and cousins what was their favorite year in high school? They tell me junior year same as mine. At age 16-17, it's being an 11th grader upperclassmen and starting to drive a car.

Freshman - iPhone 4, 6, X
Sophomore - iPhone 4s, 6s
Junior - iPhone 5, 7
Senior - iPhone 5s, 8

Just need to wait out the growing pains. Right, Boner? I just think of Sarah from Charles In Charge. The actress was an ugly duckling before she became a beautiful swan. Generation 3 and 4 will be when the X-design peaks and becomes a prom king and queen.

 

[SR71]

How many were available ? Give a number and source.

Right now, all models show ship dates 5-6 weeks away. Yes, that may change to 4-5 weeks, 3-4 weeks, etc over time. But come December 1 (just a random date) and ship dates are still 3, 4, 5 weeks out, supply is constrained. Apple will increase production as quickly as possible but there's still not enough stock to put on store shelves.

Just look at past iPhone sales, Apple has sold 12+ million during iPhone launches and the iPhone X launched in twice as many countries at launch with a supposed 2-3 million of initial stock. That doesn't add up. Yes, supply is constrained right now, but that's the same for every single iPhone preorders.

My problem with Kuo is that he made it sound like this was going to be the worst it's ever been with supply being extremely tight until the first half of 2018, and then now he's saying stock is stable. It's just backtracking and I just wanted to make that evident since people seem to think that what he says is always true (it's not).

To be clear, he's still easily the most reliable analyst, I am not denying that one bit as most analysts are often much worse with their predictions. Kuo has very good sources, but for this supply issue his source was wrong.

 

[flat five]

Just look at past iPhone sales, Apple has sold 12+ million during iPhone launches and the iPhone X launched in twice as many countries at launch with a supposed 2-3 million of initial stock. That doesn't add up.

when they sold 12 million during first weekend on past phones, how many were available as initial stock?

we have no way of knowing this (at least, i don't think we do)..

comparing the 12million sold number to the 2-3 million initial stock number has no connection whatsoever..

for all we know, when they sold 12 million units in the past, they were sitting on less than 2-3million immediately available stock.

-----------------
further.. we don't know how many they sold this launch either (especially considering the launch hasn't even happened yet)

 

[jhwalker]

There was no misinterpretation. He has made it very clear that very few people would get their iPhone X relatively quickly. Based on how many people (at least here) have pre-ordered versus their expected delivery date, that is not true. I ordered forty minutes after pre-orders started and got November 15th as my delivery date, which is likely to be bumped up just like every other year. Verizon's webpage will show you December 1st delivery estimates, which is not THAT bad. This is the same as any other year.

People's point is that he made it seem like it would be the worst iPhone launch ever in terms of supply.

Exactly - I ordered 10 HOURS after the pre-order window opened (i.e., the next morning) and my phones were shipped today for arrival on 3 November.

 

[nikicampos]

as far as i can gather, the bulk of the initial supply was gone after 10minutes.. maybe some stragglers here and there via cell providers or specific models (Sprint for example, lasted longer)

they blew through 2-3 million very quickly prior to shifting to back orders.


yes, it likely is..

if on say, Jan15, i can walk into an Apple store and buy an iPhone X and walk out with it that day then he will be wrong..
but if i can't do that then he will be right..

No, that's only on the Apple site, some people ordered on TMobile Oct 27 around 8-9am and will get their phones nov 3rd, also, many that ordered from Apple are getting a new delivery day from nov 10 to nov 3rd, this is not as bad as this guy Kuo was saying.

According to Apple’s website, the longest you have to wait for a phone is 6 weeks if you order right now. Well within the current year. All those rumors of having to wait until 2018 seem so stupid now.

He said in multiple reports that supply would be extremely tight and would quickly be pushed into 2018 because initial stock was only going to be 2-3 million. Do you honestly believe that? Past iPhone's have sold 12+ million on preorder weekend alone and those launched in way less countries than the X did at launch. If he was right then the majority of people would have ship dates well into 2018, but nobody does. Instead, the majority have ship dates for November and the rest are in December.

Yes, this so much, almost everybody that ordered in the first hours of Oct 27 (At least on TMobile) will get their phone in November 3rd, mid/end day Oct 27 a delivery date for November 10-20, and people that are not that desperate and ordered Oct 28-29 will have it by the first two weeks of December, pretty much better than previous years.

 

[flat five]

No, that's only on the Apple site, some people ordered on TMobile Oct 27 around 8-9am and will get their phones nov 3rd, also, many that ordered from Apple are getting a new delivery day from nov 10 to nov 3rd, this is not as bad as this guy Kuo was saying.

except he never said anything about pre-ordering or how long after 12am PDT the ship times would start slipping from nov3.

you're conjecturing off of his conjecture

 

[joeblow7777]

Don't worry. Next year it will be something else that ensures that you have to rush to preorder immediately as demand outpaces supply for some months.

 

[Enygmatic]

Shut up, Ming.

 

[mateytate]

So in other words, let the guinea pigs deal with the mess that’s going to be the iPhone X and wait for the iPhone 11 next year

Im happy to be a guinea pig, and even happy to pay $1149 for the privilege

 

[ghost187]

Personally, I am surprised that the shipment dates are holding steady at 5-6 weeks.

 

[SR71]

No, that's only on the Apple site, some people ordered on TMobile Oct 27 around 8-9am and will get their phones nov 3rd, also, many that ordered from Apple are getting a new delivery day from nov 10 to nov 3rd, this is not as bad as this guy Kuo was saying.





Yes, this so much, almost everybody that ordered in the first hours of Oct 27 (At least on TMobile) will get their phone in November 3rd, mid/end day Oct 27 a delivery date for November 10-20, and people that are not that desperate and ordered Oct 28-29 will have it by the first two weeks of December, pretty much better than previous years.

Don't even bother trying to reason with that guy. I already explained why, using logic and historical data, Kuo's forecast of 2-3 million for launch was completely wrong, but even still flat five says I'm making things up and that Kuo was right all along. Kuo has been right many times before, but he's also been wrong just as much. This is just another thing he got wrong. Simple as that.

 

[MH01]

Is the pope catholic ??!! Did touchid go through exactly the same scenario ?

Thanks Kuo aka captain obvious ....

 

[lazyrighteye]

But that's completely false. No one received a ship date into 2018. From what I've seen all orders are due to be delivery in December at the latest. Supply is no worse than it was for previous launches. It was harder to get the Jet Black iPhone's last year than it is to get the X this year. No matter what way you look at it, he was way off the mark.

I’m still stunned to be receiving one on Friday.

I’m curious if it was a case of A) better than expected supply chain management or B) less than expected demand. C) seems most likely: combo of the two.

I was in the camp that felt we’d see availability slip within :30 seconds, eventually seeing some receive Jan. delivery dates. And when I was not able to access the Apple Store app for 6 minutes, I was pretty ready for s December delivery. Again, stunned at Nov. 3rd.

 

[Exile714]

All this angst about whether Kuo was right misses the point, and that is that rumor sites and rumor site readers peddled vastly inaccurate information about supply constraints, partially but not completely based on Kuo's statements whether misinterpreted or not.

This was a major loss for the doom and gloom mongers (note- these can be Apple fans or not), but next year everyone will forget and the same stories will pop up again.

 

[Mascots]

Exactly - I ordered 10 HOURS after the pre-order window opened (i.e., the next morning) and my phones were shipped today for arrival on 3 November.

uh what? How does this mean anything?

I ordered 12 minutes after, directly from Apple and sit at 2-3 weeks. You have no way of knowing how tight supply constraints are when there are so many channels and you ordered from a single one: Your order from Sprint could have been accelerated because the carrier itself is less popular, for example. Or mine pushed back because people go direct from Apple.

 

[SR71]

I’m still stunned to be receiving one on Friday.

I’m curious if it was a case of A) better than expected supply chain management or B) less than expected demand. C) seems most likely: combo of the two.

I was in the camp that felt we’d see availability slip within :30 seconds, eventually seeing some receive Jan. delivery dates. And when I was not able to access the Apple Store app for 6 minutes, I was pretty ready for s December delivery. Again, stunned at Nov. 3rd.

I'd agree with that, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people waited till they could see it in person before buying it. I, too, was stunned to see that on Friday evening you could still order an X in both colors at Best Buy and get it on the 15th. I'd been skeptical of the supply rumors for a while now, but seeing good stock at multiple carriers and retailers 12+ hours after launch is what really proved to me that Kuo got things wrong about iPhone X supply issues.

 

[flat five]

using logic and historical data, Kuo's forecast of 2-3 million for launch was completely wrong, but even still flat five says I'm making things up and that Kuo was right all along.

you have absolutely no way of knowing if the 2-3 million number is right or wrong.

there is no logic or historical data being used by you in proving that number wrong.. you are making things up.

 

[Delgibbons]

What OLED issues are you expecting? Samsung has been making them for years, so curious what issues you are expecting in the X?

Samsung are the first A+ winners of Displaymate OLED technology. Note 8 has brightest Nits ever. Widest ever Adobe, HDR Premium and better than 4k home tv colour gamuts. They are the masters of mobile OLED displays by a long chalk. iPhone X will benefit from this knowledge.

Look at the frankly awful Pixel 2 and V30 LG displays.

And to think Apple want to go to LG for their next OLED displays. Must love colour banding, grain and screen burn if they want that in the next iPhone

 

[jonnysods]

This guy has risen to prominence lately. I wonder what analysis of something he has no idea about pays per year.

 

[Wowereit]

The majority of people who preorder are getting their phone in November, with later orders going out in December.

You have a twisted view of what the 'majority' of people does.
The majority of people is not refreshing the store every 3 seconds on the minute of launch.
Orders are currently pushed back to end of December. In fact I've ordered 4 minutes after the store went life and got November 21st to 28th, although this might get pushed forward.

So no, the majority of people won't receive their phone in November.

 

[littyboy]

Lol wait, so now Kuo is saying supply is stable? Last week he was saying it was still going to be horrible and delays would cause people to have to wait till 2018 to get their iPhone X. Now he's saying supply is stable. All he's doing now is backtracking and acting like he was right all along. Such BS.

He ALWAYS backtracks if you follow his "predictions" throughout. I really don't know why everyone takes his word so highly. I sometimes feel like he has some connection/kickback from Apple for his "predictions" aka marketing.

 

[AEdouard]

If there even is a iPhone X plus in the pipeline parts will start to leak pretty early I imagine.
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I think they will make a smaller one, not bigger one myself. But I know nothing lol
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Most people’s two biggest wants for the new year is health and financial success lol. I want those plus a bigger plus

You forget a happy family there buddy.