Given that he gets his intel from Foxconn supply chain, Ming Chi Kuo should still be fairly accurate when it comes to news regarding iPhones and iPads. Not so much for other products or software.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Given that he gets his intel from Foxconn supply chain, Ming Chi Kuo should still be fairly accurate when it comes to news regarding iPhones and iPads. Not so much for other products or software.
I gotta say how the hell would Ming know this?? He has made a pure 100% guess, nothing else, I could make the same claims and they would be no more valid.
He should stick to his product predictions and leaks.
He should stick to his product predictions and leaks.
Earlier this month, Apple lowered its revenue guidance for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year by up to $9 billion due to fewer iPhone upgrades than it anticipated, particularly in the Greater China region.
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative."Kuo has slightly cut his estimate for iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 from 38-42 million units to 36-38 million units because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected," but he believes the decline will begin to ease starting in the second quarter.
Specifically, he estimates iPhone shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34-37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30-35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.
As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with iPhone shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.
Kuo maintains his forecast of 188-192 million iPhone shipments in 2019.
Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales
Looks like the iPhone 11 or 12 will be what turns sales around. Right now too many iPhone owners are waiting to upgrade their older phones.
What's needed to jump start sales is the following:
1. Return of Touch ID. With new flagship Androids putting the fingerprint sensor under the OLED, Apple needs to follow this trend.
2. A flagship model to compete with the Samsung Note models. Qualcomm chipset, Active Stylus, MicroSD Card Slot, Headphone Jack, IP68, no notch (yeah, the chance of a headphone jack and MicroSD card slot are very small).
3. Replacement for the iPhone SE.
4. 4x4 MIMO antennas in all iPhones.
5. Front camera flash.
6. Various iOS improvements including true multi-tasking.
7. 5G.
Apple is falling further and further behind the competing Android models and needs to move fast before owners of older iPhones lose patience.
Normally, I have no problem assuming that Ming-Chi Kuo is going to be at least in the ballpark when it comes to his Apple predictions. However, this time, I think he's too much in the spreadsheets and he's ignoring the politics.
If Huawei's CFO, Meng Wanzhou gets extradited to the U.S. in the next few days, and depending on how it's handled by the Trump Administration and how the Chinese press cover it, all heck could break out. Right now, although some Chinese firms have put pressure on their employees not to purchase iPhones, that is only low-level discouragement. The funky stuff will hit the fan if the government itself starts to play hardball. Just a rumor about iPhones affecting your social score would be bad, and the Chinese government has many more tools at it's disposal.
The U.S. government has to formally request her extradition from Canada by 30 January. No prediction is valid until then.
If Huawei's CFO, Meng Wanzhou gets extradited to the U.S. in the next few days, and depending on how it's handled by the Trump Administration and how the Chinese press cover it, all heck could break out. Right now, although some Chinese firms have put pressure on their employees not to purchase iPhones, that is only low-level discouragement. The funky stuff will hit the fan if the government itself starts to play hardball. Just a rumor about iPhones affecting your social score would be bad, and the Chinese government has many more tools at it's disposal.
The U.S. government has to formally request her extradition from Canada by 30 January. No prediction is valid until then.
Look at that linueup. If clothing stores were like Apple, they’d only sell L, XL, and XXL.
Or over 80% of the customer base methink. Is this enough to alarm those investors? Not sure.
I think 5G networking will help a lot in a couple years. Apple will say things like “download a movie in 5 seconds” and stuff like that and people will flock for them.
Any idea that Apple is somehow on the decline is very short sighted. They are in a great position when it comes to mobile/wearables, which will see the most growth in the future.
Sure - but let’s be clear about it. Buy call options at $240 strike price for Nov 2020. That’s a great winning bet right now I’d say.
Last edited:
Ming has been Apple PR since Day 1. They use each other. You can’t bank on his comments. An attempted diversion from the catastrophic call coming on the 29th. Nothing more.
iPhones generally have a 2 year upgrade cycle.
Last year was the X and the 8. So customers coming from a 6s or SE could choose between a notched screen with Face ID, or a refined 6 form factor with traditional home button. People who were cutting edge would go X, as would the “need a new one every year” crowd.
But this time around, customers coming from the 7 had ONLY notched Face ID options. They lost a subset of customers who would rather keep their 7 than switch to a new paradigm.
Add to that the group of SE users who were waiting for an updated smaller phone only to see it dropped instead.
Add to that the increased prices for features even Apple doesn’t know how to market (the commercials tell you nothing about why upgrading is worth it).
People (a large minority)don’t want to or can’t pay so much for a phone they don’t know why they need that behaves so differently than the one they have now.
Last year was the X and the 8. So customers coming from a 6s or SE could choose between a notched screen with Face ID, or a refined 6 form factor with traditional home button. People who were cutting edge would go X, as would the “need a new one every year” crowd.
But this time around, customers coming from the 7 had ONLY notched Face ID options. They lost a subset of customers who would rather keep their 7 than switch to a new paradigm.
Add to that the group of SE users who were waiting for an updated smaller phone only to see it dropped instead.
Add to that the increased prices for features even Apple doesn’t know how to market (the commercials tell you nothing about why upgrading is worth it).
People (a large minority)don’t want to or can’t pay so much for a phone they don’t know why they need that behaves so differently than the one they have now.
That's funny. No... Lowering prices would result in Apple earning less than their 38% margin, which is required to sustain operations. 38% margin is reasonable and within industry norms.
Prices could be lowered if accompanied with removing features/functionality (and thus reducing cost - the iPhone XR is a good example). Of course that would cause similar whining from the same people. It's a big bowl of wah either way.
Despite the high cost of living - it remains popular.
I think we need our iPhones and we just end up buying
Apple: Hi Ming, can you say something really nice about our future?
Ming: OK, I try. Bye.
Ming: OK, I try. Bye.
All that Mr. Kuo is saying, that we all will have our salaries doubled from next month and so we will have a lots of spare money to upgrade. Also. Our palms will double in size, so the iPhone will be ideal size yet again.
Just in case, for those whom didn’t get it, it was a sarcasm
Just in case, for those whom didn’t get it, it was a sarcasm
The worst won't be over until Apple starts pricing them fairly again.
Not true for US, Canada, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Korea and the other markets that set revenue records.
Homers make it seem like Apple is selling it so high because If they don’t they’ll go out of business due to the high cost of making the device. Lol.
I guess their cases HAVE to be $60 because it costs SO much to make a plastic item while others in this world make it and sell it for $10.
Only a fool believes the phone costs $1400 because it costs so much to make.
Do you REALLY believe going from 32gb to 128gb or whatever the hell it is now REALLY costs $150 more?
[doublepost=1548632551][/doublepost]Revenue records doesn’t mean **** when sales of units are declining. He raises prices BECAUSE he needs to make up for the loss of sales somehow so revenue seems high.
How well did their “SUPER COMPUTER” do at $5000? Yeah didn’t think so. They had to discount it $1000 in like 2 months lmao.
How can u say it costs so much when they can afford to cut the cost by $1000?!?!?
[doublepost=1548632663][/doublepost]There are ppl here defending the costs. It’s hilarous. Do you not like your money? Would u really be upset if u paid less? Why don’t u guys go and pay $500 over the cost since u LOVE to pay them. We literally have people here saying
“NO! I am happy to give them my $$”
I guess their cases HAVE to be $60 because it costs SO much to make a plastic item while others in this world make it and sell it for $10.
Only a fool believes the phone costs $1400 because it costs so much to make.
Do you REALLY believe going from 32gb to 128gb or whatever the hell it is now REALLY costs $150 more?
[doublepost=1548632551][/doublepost]Revenue records doesn’t mean **** when sales of units are declining. He raises prices BECAUSE he needs to make up for the loss of sales somehow so revenue seems high.
How well did their “SUPER COMPUTER” do at $5000? Yeah didn’t think so. They had to discount it $1000 in like 2 months lmao.
How can u say it costs so much when they can afford to cut the cost by $1000?!?!?
[doublepost=1548632663][/doublepost]There are ppl here defending the costs. It’s hilarous. Do you not like your money? Would u really be upset if u paid less? Why don’t u guys go and pay $500 over the cost since u LOVE to pay them. We literally have people here saying
“NO! I am happy to give them my $$”
Well they are trying to move phones with trade ins and offering interest free credit. They brought the SE back from the dead with a new price point. Of course nobody knows how many they had and they sold it quickly. We shall see if it is enough.
Well, they are an American company after all
Oh the ongoing carnage of lost iPhone sales. Gnashing of teeth and pulling of hair....
Rewind the clock not too many years back and these current numbers that everyone is moaning about would have been phenomenally, unbelievably fantastic. Beyond anyone's dreams.
If iPhone sales don't grow like a tumor forever, the company is doomed and investors bail out.
Rewind the clock not too many years back and these current numbers that everyone is moaning about would have been phenomenally, unbelievably fantastic. Beyond anyone's dreams.
If iPhone sales don't grow like a tumor forever, the company is doomed and investors bail out.
Anyone else tired of seeing these ugly notch phone images in all of the stories now?
Yes.
That is, have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that a professional, successful, historically accurate market analyst specializing in Apple knows a weensy bit more than a throng of internet forum members consisting largely of casual users and some trolls who collectively know zero if one counts the offsetting ignorance of haters and fanboys.
And bear in mind that this holds perfectly true even if he’s wrong about this.