Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales

[alexnyc8]

Several facets here in this post:
- conspiracy theories
- price
- functional upgrades between models

With regard to the "big brother" worry, being on the grid these days, can't escape "big brother".

However, price vs value is a very individual decision and you have made your position clear. There is not enough value for the price with regard to the newer iphones.

With regard to the "nothing of significance" over the 7+, for me I disagree. Other than face id, water proofing, wireless charging, camera, stereo speakers, dynamic hdr, enhanced hdr in video, you're right, there is nothing of significance. I view these updates as significant over a 2 year old phone. YMMV.

Conspiracy theory or conspiracy fact, for the first time ever you have an IR camera that basically builds a full topological model of your face (of which you only have one), and if the digital hash of this is stolen/compromised you are basically SOL. The judgment is out on this one and as far as conspiracy theories go, i am not the only one worried.
https://www.wired.com/story/is-big-tech-merging-with-big-brother-kinda-looks-like-it/ Already we have just a few tech companies basically owe your full digital self (and with everything in the cloud model where you own nothing and control nothing taking over everything, for convenience, ofcourse) and with some sort of bio metric key to the kingdom (in some not so distant future) this will become a very highly thought after piece of data
So yes we are on the grid, but some info is more valuable than other, especially one you can not easily replace.

As for other features, then yes, to each his own.

Wireless charging - complete gimmick, slow, and will degrade battery life if used often (but maybe it doesnt matter for people buying $1000 phones, they will just upgrade, after all its only $60 per month ).

Stereo Speakers on a phone? This is really seriously funny (7+ vs 8+ vs X vs XsMax, yes i heard them all, they all equally suck - i just carry a Bluetooth speaker when i travel to listen in the hotel - audio difference is day and nigh over any "phone/laptop speaker")

Waterproofing - under most realistic scenarios X-models offer nothing over 7+ and even more nothing considering the price delta

Camera/HDR - all of the modern phones (6 and above and equivalent Androids) take decent pictures under ideal conditions. Anything less than ideal/low light - they all suck compared to even the crappiest real camera (double smile for people trying to take picture at night with iphone led flash over 3 feet away or directly against the sun).
Iphone 8 actually had a video improvement (in the form of 4k60, one of the first, and still one of the few) but again this 4k60 video is only worth it under ideal conditions - made a recording in a aquarium with my wife's 8, and all scenes that are lower (not even low just not in full sunlght) light are a noisy granulated mess that completely defeats the purpose of 4k video.

But yes, to each his own.

 

[McG2k1]

imo slumping sales is the new normal unless Apple gives the common man a reason to upgrade their current iphone. Most of their sales are probably cultists and people who broke their phone. Not sure why anyone would care to upgrade from even a 7 at this point. It’s all kind of incremental upgrades, like intel cpus.

 

[AngerDanger]

I'll charge one of the old ones and try it out. What does it do exactly, though? Is it like a rubber banding effect; move your thumb and it tears the object away from its static position to be nearer to your thumb?

It scrolls the app down so the top can be reached with the thumb of just one hand:

Excerpt from iDownloadBlog's Video

 

[KhrisGarcia]

Asking because I'm curious. I don't use iPhones, but my wife does. I have iPads, but I don't think those would have an option like that.

I don't use the feature on my S9, actually. My hands are fairly big and I generally find gestures (not sure if Android or Samsung specific) to be annoying.

Yes, it's called reachability. I used it on my 6+ and 7+ but don't use it on the iPhone X, although it can be enabled. I defiantly found it useful on the + phones. I don't have a use for it on the X but someone with smaller hands might.

 

[I7guy]

Conspiracy theory or conspiracy fact, for the first time ever you have an IR camera that basically builds a full topological model of your face (of which you only have one), and if the digital hash of this is stolen/compromised you are basically SOL. The judgment is out on this one and as far as conspiracy theories go, i am not the only one worried.
https://www.wired.com/story/is-big-tech-merging-with-big-brother-kinda-looks-like-it/ Already we have just a few tech companies basically owe your full digital self (and with everything in the cloud model where you own nothing and control nothing taking over everything, for convenience, ofcourse) and with some sort of bio metric key to the kingdom (in some not so distant future) this will become a very highly thought after piece of data
So yes we are on the grid, but some info is more valuable than other, especially one you can not easily replace.

One could say the same thing for touch id, and none of that came to pass. But each of us has different thresholds for various things. I am not worried about my digitally encrypted face-id representation being stolen from my phone and used in an unauthorized manner.

https://www.apple.com/ca/business-docs/FaceID_Security_Guide.pdf

As for other features, then yes, to each his own.

Wireless charging - complete gimmick, slow, and will degrade battery life if used often (but maybe it doesnt matter for people buying $1000 phones, they will just upgrade, after all its only $60 per month ).

Stereo Speakers on a phone? This is really seriously funny (7+ vs 8+ vs X vs XsMax, yes i heard them all, they all equally suck - i just carry a Bluetooth speaker when i travel to listen in the hotel - audio difference is day and nigh over any "phone/laptop speaker")

Waterproofing - under most realistic scenarios X-models offer nothing over 7+ and even more nothing considering the price delta

Camera/HDR - all of the modern phones (6 and above and equivalent Androids) take decent pictures under ideal conditions. Anything less than ideal/low light - they all suck compared to even the crappiest real camera (double smile for people trying to take picture at night with iphone led flash over 3 feet away or directly against the sun).
Iphone 8 actually had a video improvement (in the form of 4k60, one of the first, and still one of the few) but again this 4k60 video is only worth it under ideal conditions - made a recording in a aquarium with my wife's 8, and all scenes that are lower (not even low just not in full sunlght) light are a noisy granulated mess that completely defeats the purpose of 4k video.

But yes, to each his own.

There are those who berated Apple, for example, for waiting so long to include wireless charging. The expression one man's must have feature is another man's meh...comes to mind. I'll use the phone as intended and deal with any unintended battery degradation. I find it is useful in certain scenarios, such as in a car with a wireless charging pad...very convenient especially when using nav apps that suck the battery life.

I agree on the bluetooth, however, the stereo speakers on the max a good for phone speakers. I have a Bose Soundlink Mini II that I travel with if I want decent sound.

With the remainder, clearly your post points to each of us feels differently about the feature/function/price. I find the upgrades welcome over my 6s, and compared to my spouses' 7 as well. Everybody's mileage will vary on this and I find the max package to be worth the price.

(Oh and I forgot stereo video recording which Apple should have included in prior models.)

 

[Emanuel Rodriguez]

Not much of a feature imo, although, I have never used it.

I really wished the newer phones had Touch ID.

Yeah, this is one of the reasons I'm not upgrading my iPhone until it croaks. I really would rather have Touch ID. It's an iPhone 7 though, so I may upgrade to an iPhone 8. That'll be the end for me though, unless something changes, or THAT phone croaks, at some point.

 

[I7guy]

imo slumping sales is the new normal unless Apple gives the common man a reason to upgrade their current iphone. Most of their sales are probably cultists and people who broke their phone. Not sure why anyone would care to upgrade from even a 7 at this point. It’s all kind of incremental upgrades, like intel cpus.

As noted above, at least imo, the max is more than an incremental upgrade from the 7. Everybody's view on one phones upgraded features and functions are different.

 

[PickUrPoison]

I agree, while people are getting caught up the XR or XS price debate, people are overlooking that the iPhone 7 is $500 and the iPhone 8 is $600. Those are prices are outrageous for a 2nd generation and generation behind phone. Around the holidays I saw the Samsung S9 for $500 retail.

Realistically iPhone 7 is more phone than most people need, and it’s $449. Posters to these forums might “need” a more powerful phone, but we certainly can’t be described as typical users. Even at that, I see quite a few posts about users keeping 6S and 7 series, because they can do everything users want them to, and people don’t see any reason to upgrade.

In other words, upgrade cycles are lengthening (surprise). Apple saw this coming 3-4 years ago and introduced a “super premium “ tier to minimize the hit to revenue and profits. Looking at ASPs, their strategy is working out very well.

 

[Jimmy James]

Chill out, everyone. Ming-Chi has spoken.

 

[jonnysods]

With current iPhone prices I'm going to keep my X for at least two more years. No compelling reason to upgrade, and they have priced me out of being able to upgrade just because I want the new models.

 

[pratikindia]

The China market is difficult recover IMO without price cuts. If you visit any cities such as Shanghai, Beijing etc., you will more Chinese phones than iPhone. The tide has changed in last few years where Huawei and Oppo group have marched over Apple. If you ask people about iPhone, they will say that it's expensive.

 

[Juicy Box]

Realistically iPhone 7 is more phone than most people need, and it’s $449. Posters to these forums might “need” a more powerful phone, but we certainly can’t be described as typical users. Even at that, I see quite a few posts about users keeping 6S and 7 series, because they can do everything users want them to, and people don’t see any reason to upgrade.

I agree.

I was never one to buy the newest iPhone every year, I went from the 2G, 4s, 5s, 6s Plus and now the SE.

There really is not anything on the new phones that I can justify the cost. The XR's price might be doable for me, but it is way too big, and has small storage space.

Upgrading for me would end up me having to use a giant phone and losing Touch ID.

Looking at ASPs, their strategy is working out very well.

I wouldn't be so sure. If it was working out, Apple wouldn't of had to adjust sales guidance.

 

[jazz1]

That’s because Apple serves the premium end of the market, which is driven more by value rather than price.

People claiming that a small price cut can make a big difference in terms of sales show a fundamental misunderstanding of how these premium markets work.

There are already many, many ways how customers can get a cheaper/more accessible iPhone. The 7 and 8 are still brilliant phones for a good price. Carrier and retailer promotions. Trade-in offers. Installment plans. Credit cards. Grey market. Resellers still going through the stock of X's. But none of this can really compete with the smartphone market's maturity. The supply of premium users is drying up while our phones last longer. And it will be worse and worse. The Xr with A12 is a power-house and will likely run silky-smooth for as long as it supports iOS updates.

The solution to iPhone growth is not found in cheaper pricing or more/better features, but in new markets. Alternatively, conquer new markets which can cannibalise smartphones, such as wearables.

Really, it’s the people here who need to get over their own obsession with Apple product pricing. It wasn’t the main problem then, and it’s not the main issue now.

Selling kidneys?

 

[Tech198]

Tens of millions of iPhone users around the globe won’t upgrade their phones until there’s a compact, thumb-friendly iPhone in the lineup again.

Bring back the iPhone 5 !

I thought we we're moving forwards, not backwards.

 

[srdunn]

According to the Ming-Chi Kuo rumors, Face ID was a solution to a problem that Apple created due to them failing to embed the Touch ID under the glass. I am not sure if space had anything to do with the issue.

Again, maybe I might end up enjoying Face ID, but to the original quote that I posted, Face ID is not really a feature that is worth getting another phone for. It doesn't provide a solution to a significant problem that Touch ID can't handle.

Face ID might be more secure than Touch ID (that is debatable), it might be newer, and better tech than Touch ID, but it doesn't provide a reason to buy a new iPhone imo.

I 100% agreed with everything you said until I got an XS. FaceID IS actually a killer feature it’s just very very hard to market; as you demonstrated.

I didn’t think I would like it, however it actually makes the phone more useable. You can feel that it’s the kind of system that Apple wanted in the first place. Raise the phone and glance at it and it’s already unlocked.

Once you have it you’ll never go back!

 

[ksec]

Most consumers in China will continue to use WeChat and they don't need a $1000 iPhone or even a $600 Android smartphone to use that app. Apple's iPhone business in China is totally ruined. There will be very few consumers buying iPhones or any other Apple products because they surely hate POTUS for screwing them over.

Apple is done for in China and any recovery is unlikely. Kuo is wrong as most analysts believe there's much more worse to come with declining iPhone sales. Apple should have acquired a cloud business or any other high-growth business to stabilize their stagnant revenue stream. The iPhone's best days are behind it. There's nothing Apple can do to increase its value enough for consumers to pay such high prices. I don't believe the Chinese look up to Apple anymore and many would rather stay loyal to their own domestic-brand Android smartphones. Also, Apple won't be able to sell any iPhones to Indian consumers, which is really a bummer. How crappy Apple is as a company that can't even hold onto 1% market share in such a huge country.

It's like OSX vs Windows all over again but this time it's even worse. Android totally dominates the global smartphone market and Apple is only doing things to make it worse. Not even one reasonably priced iPhone is being offered to those poverty-class consumers.

As long as Apple continues to depend on iPhone sales, Apple shareholders are going to suffer miserably while all the other major tech companies show major share price gains. Tim Cook doesn't seem to get it. Apple's iPhone business is finished in two of the largest countries in the world. As a long-term Apple shareholder, I'm really disappointed in Apple not being able to see iPhone sales hitting a wall a year ago. They would need to be blind to miss something that obvious. And then jacking up iPhone prices... OMG! Insanity.

I think that is overly pessimistic view.

The two largest market for Apple is still Japan and US. In terms of PPP, China happened to over took Japan which was a surprise to even Apple, how anyone were willing to spend two months salary on a phone when the West and other nation were complaining about spending a fraction of it.
And India is a different story, I believe they are like China 10 years ago, so Apple needs to work, and it is not a dead end yet.

Apple is working towards its 1B iPhone active user base. It might have slow down a bit, but right now at 800M+, so they still have 800M+ user upgrade or other potential switchers. Given the lengthen time between upgrade, and reaching market saturation, their iPhones unit sales will fall. But with higher ASP, and larger Services, and other Product Revenue their Total Revenue should remain more or less stable.

So they are not growing, but they aren't really going to be dead like it was in Mac vs Window era. People have been saying this and forgetting Mac vs Windows were for Geeks, or in the Prosumer Category. iPhone are firmly in the Consumer business.

 

[BvizioN]

Tens of millions of iPhone users around the globe won’t upgrade their phones until there’s a compact, thumb-friendly iPhone in the lineup again.

You forgot the 3.5mm headphone jack..!
And physical home button
And Slide to unlock.
And the green fields of pre-iOS 7
And and...

Oh ****. It is 2019!

 

[Juicy Box]

Bring back the iPhone 5 !

I thought we we're moving forwards, not backwards.

Guess it depends on what we are moving towards, maybe it might be better to take a step back once in a while.

I would love to see a 4" version of the iPhone 4s make a comeback.
Modern internals, of course....

I would buy it at launch as long as I didn't have to sell a kidney for it.

 

[PickUrPoison]

I wouldn't be so sure. If it was working out, Apple wouldn't of had to adjust sales guidance.

The revenue miss is wholly attributable to the China region, while other regions are doing very well.

Apple didn’t issue that guidance until November 1st, less than three months ago. They had no idea how fast and hard the situation in China would hit. As good as their forecasting generally is, they apparently had no visibility to the considerable decrease in demand that was imminent. We’ll know more after the Tuesday earnings call.

 

[apolloa]

This is not soothsaying - it is industrial espionage of a rumors kind here. Maybe the information gathered from the employees at various levels is used just here, or monetized elsewhere; most of the time it is spot on.

What are you on about? It’s nothing more then a pure guess by Ming. At a time when he wants to make money for himself and his clients by attempting to manipulate stock prices.. he’s been proven wrong also in these things. He may predict prosucts, but he’s not very good at predicting anything else.

 

[himanshumodi]

That's funny. No... Lowering prices would result in Apple earning less than their 38% margin, which is required to sustain operations. 38% margin is reasonable and within industry norms.

Prices could be lowered if accompanied with removing features/functionality (and thus reducing cost - the iPhone XR is a good example). Of course that would cause similar whining from the same people. It's a big bowl of wah either way.

That's not entirely accurate. One is, Cost of manufacturing, hopefully, will be optimized, which can therefore be passed along to the customers, if Apple so wishes. Second, and somewhat less applicable fact is, Apple does have non-iPhone revenue that, if peddled at higher margin, can subsidize iPhones, if they so wish.

That said, iPhone prices are not going down now, even if costs come down. They are set in stone. There could be a possibility of an SE like phone, priced below XR, to have a greater price spread, but I am not too hopeful.

 

[aircanman]

Does anyone else think Ming works for apple? He leaks very accurate information and seems to be one step ahead of the game when it comes to shares and outlook of how apple will do. His comments will level off the market value of the shares and we will see a increase now.

 

[WatchFromAfar]

A lot peeps are just being priced out of upgrading n holding onto there current phones longer

or looking elsewhere to something more affordable...

 

[NachoGrande]

Throttle-gate 2.0

 

[Jedwardoo]

A lot peeps are just being priced out of upgrading n holding onto there current phones longer

I’m part of that peeps. I have an iPhone 8, I was planning to buy the iPhone XR. I realized I should just wait for 2019 or 2020 iPhones to release and see if I should still hold on to my 8 or upgrade.