Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales

[OutbackIdaho]

Wanting to upgrade from an SE to a 7 perhaps, cause of better CPU & MIMO on WiFi; plus bigger screen for big fingers when typing & viewing. Biggest issue has always been the price. Of course I want more memory storage than a mere 32 GB ... have 80GB of music on the PC alone.

 

[nazaar]

Yeah good luck with that.
I've been an Apple fan for a while, but I've never disliked the company as much as I do now.
I'm currently on a iPhone 6s and was planning on upgrading in 2018, but I can no longer justify the cost.
I really don't what to switch, but Apple hasn't given me a reason to stay.

 

[rmsanger]

I still use a 6S and it does a wonderful job for everything I need it to. The increasing prices will just make me hold it longer until something revolutionary hits to justify the price .

I better screen facial recognition and emoji BS will not get me to unload $1000+ for a new phone.

 

[OutbackIdaho]

Am a Field Rep for US Census Bureau (part-time) and the bureau all use Apple for security reasons. Boss' iPhone 6 keeps having issues. Figured the 7 would be a better upgrade to the SE, but it's the cost is what I think drives most people away.

Could not see spending $700 on an iPhone 7 with 128 GB of storage. Even $380 for the SE was a killer to me. Since am out on the road a lot, or when merchandising for Frito-Lay (other job), I do like listening to music. Have a mere 80GB of music, listening through an Atari Life Speakerhat. (Don't like stuff in my ears.)

So waiting for the new stuff to hopefully cut the price on the old stuff, and maybe, just maybe can get something more affordable to us working-poor. Would leap on a decent iPhone 7 (256) if I could. Very skittish of resells.

 

[Juicy Box]

I, too, really hate that dish I have never tried, but I am sure it tastes horrible. After more than a year of use, I can say it's a lot more comfortable than Touch ID, and I would never want to go back.

Yeah, try a $1k dish to find out if you like it or not.....

The point is Face ID isn't a "must have" feature. It is a solution to a not so bad problem, if any problem at all. At least to me, it isn't work the money to buy a new phone for this feature.

If I ever get a phone with Face ID, I might love it, I might not, but Touch ID is perfectly fine right now.

 

[I7guy]

I still use a 6S and it does a wonderful job for everything I need it to. The increasing prices will just make me hold it longer until something revolutionary hits to justify the price .

I better screen facial recognition and emoji BS will not get me to unload $1000+ for a new phone.

The 6s is a great phone. I traded mine in for a max. Had a lot of trepidation regarding PWM, but turned out to be a non-issue.

At any rate, I’m happy I waited for the “s” cycle.

 

[The Game 161]

Still 37 million units if that’s what they do sell will still be strong with compared to the market. Just harder for everybody to sell their phones

 

[yossi]

SE2

SE2

SE2

SE2


That is all

 

[MacManiac1]

Earlier this month, Apple lowered its revenue guidance for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year by up to $9 billion due to fewer iPhone upgrades than it anticipated, particularly in the Greater China region.

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative."Kuo has slightly cut his estimate for iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 from 38-42 million units to 36-38 million units because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected," but he believes the decline will begin to ease starting in the second quarter.

Specifically, he estimates iPhone shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34-37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30-35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.

As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with iPhone shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.

Kuo maintains his forecast of 188-192 million iPhone shipments in 2019.

Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales

[doublepost=1548638739][/doublepost]Kuo maintains his forecast of 188-192 million iPhone shipments in 2019.

Since Apple will no loner release unit sales, how will we know if he is eight? Maybe they will release totals and not individual sales?

 

[Lllllawrence]

Yeah, try a $1k dish to find out if you like it or not.....

The point is Face ID isn't a "must have" feature. It is a solution to a not so bad problem, if any problem at all. At least to me, it isn't work the money to buy a new phone for this feature.

If I ever get a phone with Face ID, I might love it, I might not, but Touch ID is perfectly fine right now.

I think the “problem” is not only the authentication method but also the pricous space it takes up. Of course Touch ID works fine but it takes a lot of space. I like Face ID not really because it’s better than Touch ID but it’s becuase it allows the phone to have a much bigger screen.

 

[KPandian1]

I gotta say how the hell would Ming know this?? He has made a pure 100% guess, nothing else, I could make the same claims and they would be no more valid.
He should stick to his product predictions and leaks.

This is not soothsaying - it is industrial espionage of a rumors kind here. Maybe the information gathered from the employees at various levels is used just here, or monetized elsewhere; most of the time it is spot on.

 

[alexnyc8]

Going to keep my iPhone 7+ 128 until it falls apart. May get an 8+ next year if they are still offered just to keep a spare unit (Hoping the price drops even more).
FaceID is a complete no go for me, the big brother aspect of it is too dangerous to ignore, but sadly most everyone has bought into the "convenience" of it (Seriously people how hard is it to enter a passcode?)
Now onto other factors - i can easily afford to buy any one of these phones, but its a matter of principle - no phone is worth over 1000 (paid over 800 for my 7+ 128 when it came out with screeching teeth mostly pissed of at Apple milking the storage game, which they still do, so again it was a matter of principle), but i was upgrading from a 3GS so i decided to buy it anyways.
The X/8+ offered nothing over the 7+, and faceID on X was a no go.
Xs/Max/XR - not only are they expensive while offering nothing of significance over 7+, but FaceID is now mandatory (yes i know you can turn it off, but you can never be 100% sure it is truly always off, plus again, matter of principle)
XR to add insult to injury is actually inferior - single cam setup, inferior display (not even 1080P in 2018!!!!).
Apple may have gamed on planned obsolescence but i think they were soft-forced to make IOS12 fast on old phones, so there is no real reason to upgrade, other than some silly "status symbol" thing that many seem to desire (Seriously a phone??? as a status symbol?). 7+ does absolutely everything that the newer/newest models do just as well. The cellphone market has saturated, just like PC market in early 2000's.

 

[Juicy Box]

I think the “problem” is not only the authentication method but also the pricous space it takes up. Of course Touch ID works fine but it takes a lot of space. I like Face ID not really because it’s better than Touch ID but it’s becuase it allows the phone to have a much bigger screen.

According to the Ming-Chi Kuo rumors, Face ID was a solution to a problem that Apple created due to them failing to embed the Touch ID under the glass. I am not sure if space had anything to do with the issue.

Again, maybe I might end up enjoying Face ID, but to the original quote that I posted, Face ID is not really a feature that is worth getting another phone for. It doesn't provide a solution to a significant problem that Touch ID can't handle.

Face ID might be more secure than Touch ID (that is debatable), it might be newer, and better tech than Touch ID, but it doesn't provide a reason to buy a new iPhone imo.

 

[KPandian1]

Still 37 million units if that’s what they do sell will still be strong with compared to the market. Just harder for everybody to sell their phones

If Apple beats all this doom and gloom, good for my stocks; if not I'm looking at lower priced next generation products - especially the micro-LED - very much looking forward to this tech to become common-place.

 

[KhrisGarcia]

Last few iterations of iPhones were already fast enough, adding 5% speed to it does not make much of a difference, no need to upgrade.
As for features, not much has been added last few years, with FaceId being an exception.

Fast enough might be accurate but 5% speed is not. Phones and tablets are doing what computers did back in the day. They are literally nearly doubling their speeds. The latest iPad is as fast as a 2017 quad core 15” MBP.
[doublepost=1548642469][/doublepost]

According to the Ming-Chi Kuo rumors, Face ID was a solution to a problem that Apple created due to them failing to embed the Touch ID under the glass. I am not sure if space had anything to do with the issue.

Again, maybe I might end up enjoying Face ID, but to the original quote that I posted, Face ID is not really a feature that is worth getting another phone for. It doesn't provide a solution to a significant problem that Touch ID can't handle.

Face ID might be more secure than Touch ID (that is debatable), it might be newer, and better tech than Touch ID, but it doesn't provide a reason to buy a new iPhone imo.

It’s in the eyes of the beholder. I went from a 6+ to a 7+ to an x. I don’t anticipate upgrading again for 2 years. The x hit the spot for me.

On the MacBook side, a 6 core CPU and True Tone was enough for me to upgrade from a 2016 to a 2018. If they add 8 core and Face ID in 2019 it would not warrant an upgrade for me.

 

[I7guy]

Going to keep my iPhone 7+ 128 until it falls apart. May get an 8+ next year if they are still offered just to keep a spare unit (Hoping the price drops even more).
FaceID is a complete no go for me, the big brother aspect of it is too dangerous to ignore, but sadly most everyone has bought into the "convenience" of it (Seriously people how hard is it to enter a passcode?)
Now onto other factors - i can easily afford to buy any one of these phones, but its a matter of principle - no phone is worth over 1000 (paid over 800 for my 7+ 128 when it came out with screeching teeth mostly pissed of at Apple milking the storage game, which they still do, so again it was a matter of principle), but i was upgrading from a 3GS so i decided to buy it anyways.
The X/8+ offered nothing over the 7+, and faceID on X was a no go.
Xs/Max/XR - not only are they expensive while offering nothing of significance over 7+, but FaceID is now mandatory (yes i know you can turn it off, but you can never be 100% sure it is truly always off, plus again, matter of principle)
XR to add insult to injury is actually inferior - single cam setup, inferior display (not even 1080P in 2018!!!!).
Apple may have gamed on planned obsolescence but i think they were soft-forced to make IOS12 fast on old phones, so there is no real reason to upgrade, other than some silly "status symbol" thing that many seem to desire (Seriously a phone??? as a status symbol?). 7+ does absolutely everything that the newer/newest models do just as well. The cellphone market has saturated, just like PC market in early 2000's.

Several facets here in this post:
- conspiracy theories
- price
- functional upgrades between models

With regard to the "big brother" worry, being on the grid these days, can't escape "big brother".

However, price vs value is a very individual decision and you have made your position clear. There is not enough value for the price with regard to the newer iphones.

With regard to the "nothing of significance" over the 7+, for me I disagree. Other than face id, water proofing, wireless charging, camera, stereo speakers, dynamic hdr, enhanced hdr in video, you're right, there is nothing of significance. I view these updates as significant over a 2 year old phone. YMMV.

 

[KhrisGarcia]

Did this person ever got anything right?

Yes, always right. Many years on macrumors daily and this guy is more accurate then anyone. He obviously has his sources.
[doublepost=1548643019][/doublepost]

Most consumers in China will continue to use WeChat and they don't need a $1000 iPhone or even a $600 Android smartphone to use that app. Apple's iPhone business in China is totally ruined. There will be very few consumers buying iPhones or any other Apple products because they surely hate POTUS for screwing them over.

Apple is done for in China and any recovery is unlikely. Kuo is wrong as most analysts believe there's much more worse to come with declining iPhone sales. Apple should have acquired a cloud business or any other high-growth business to stabilize their stagnant revenue stream. The iPhone's best days are behind it. There's nothing Apple can do to increase its value enough for consumers to pay such high prices. I don't believe the Chinese look up to Apple anymore and many would rather stay loyal to their own domestic-brand Android smartphones. Also, Apple won't be able to sell any iPhones to Indian consumers, which is really a bummer. How crappy Apple is as a company that can't even hold onto 1% market share in such a huge country.

It's like OSX vs Windows all over again but this time it's even worse. Android totally dominates the global smartphone market and Apple is only doing things to make it worse. Not even one reasonably priced iPhone is being offered to those poverty-class consumers.

As long as Apple continues to depend on iPhone sales, Apple shareholders are going to suffer miserably while all the other major tech companies show major share price gains. Tim Cook doesn't seem to get it. Apple's iPhone business is finished in two of the largest countries in the world. As a long-term Apple shareholder, I'm really disappointed in Apple not being able to see iPhone sales hitting a wall a year ago. They would need to be blind to miss something that obvious. And then jacking up iPhone prices... OMG! Insanity.

They did see the wall and that’s why the prices are higher. I mean, I wouldn’t be caught dead with an Android. Guess that’s why I paid $1300 for an iPhone. Do I like the idea of a $1300 iPhone? No. I did no ’t like it when I paid $1000 for the 7+. Apple has a the premium.

And the stocks... oh why am I bothering. Tim Cook doesn’t get it? Oh boy.

 

[0388631]

Tens of millions of iPhone users around the globe won’t upgrade their phones until there’s a compact, thumb-friendly iPhone in the lineup again.

Does the iPhone have anything like the Galaxy where you can half or quarter size your display's functions with a gesture and be able to use your phone easily with just a thumb?

 

[pika2000]

Tens of millions of iPhone users around the globe won’t upgrade their phones until there’s a compact, thumb-friendly iPhone in the lineup again.

If that was the case, we would’ve seen more compact phones in the market. Reality said otherwise as even budget Android phones now are sporting large screens.

Your personal preference doesn’t dictate the market trend.

 

[KhrisGarcia]

Does the iPhone have anything like the Galaxy where you can half or quarter size your display's functions with a gesture and be able to use your phone easily with just a thumb?

Are you asking because you’re interested in buying a new iPhone if it does? Or are you just trying to make a point?
[doublepost=1548643660][/doublepost]

If that was the case, we would’ve seen more compact phones in the market. Reality said otherwise as even budget Android phones now are sporting large screens.

Your personal preference doesn’t dictate the market trend.

Two sides to this. Yes, what you’re saying is true, but I also have 2 out of 5 iPhone users on my account (wife and daughter) who don’t want to upgrade from their 7’s because they don’t like the new larger phones. Both are paid after 24 months and would have upgraded if there was an option that they liked. I pushed the X but neither of them are interested. Guess that’s ok with me since I’m saving $75 a month in device payment plan costs.

 

[0388631]

Are you asking because you’re interested in buying a new iPhone if it does? Or are you just trying to make a point?

Asking because I'm curious. I don't use iPhones, but my wife does. I have iPads, but I don't think those would have an option like that.

I don't use the feature on my S9, actually. My hands are fairly big and I generally find gestures (not sure if Android or Samsung specific) to be annoying.

 

[Cosmosent]

What's the #1 thing Cook has been telling his Executive Team this past week, as they Prep Up for Tuesday ?

"Doesn't have to be Accurate, just needs to be Plausible"

 

[terpsbball2002]

Wanting to upgrade from an SE to a 7 perhaps, cause of better CPU & MIMO on WiFi; plus bigger screen for big fingers when typing & viewing. Biggest issue has always been the price. Of course I want more memory storage than a mere 32 GB ... have 80GB of music on the PC alone.

I agree, while people are getting caught up the XR or XS price debate, people are overlooking that the iPhone 7 is $500 and the iPhone 8 is $600. Those are prices are outrageous for a 2nd generation and generation behind phone. Around the holidays I saw the Samsung S9 for $500 retail.

 

[AngerDanger]

Does the iPhone have anything like the Galaxy where you can half or quarter size your display's functions with a gesture and be able to use your phone easily with just a thumb?

They have something called Reachability. I have an SE, so I can't try it out on other devices, but I'm pretty sure you enable it in the Settings and then swipe down quickly on the Home Bar to reach content that's higher up.

If you have a TouchID iPhone, you double tap (don't press) the TouchID button instead of swiping the Home Bar.

 

[0388631]

They have something called Reachability. I have an SE, so I can't try it out on other devices, but I'm pretty sure you enable it in the Settings and then swipe down quickly on the Home Bar to reach content that's higher up.

If you have a TouchID iPhone, you double tap (don't press) the TouchID button instead of swiping the Home Bar.

I'll charge one of the old ones and try it out. What does it do exactly, though? Is it like a rubber banding effect; move your thumb and it tears the object away from its static position to be nearer to your thumb?