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MLB Hot Stove Thread 07
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I agree. The Western division is underrated, especially in the depth of pitching. I don't see any line-up that make me think of the '27 Yankees, but the starting rotations are very good. I'm kinda of amazed to think of the Padres with two 40+ year olds in the starting five, but I also think they will be good - especially in that ballpark. I'd rate the Dodgers rotation number one, but I think all are above average to very good.
Even Colorado?
The Dodger's off season strategy was to build the deepest pitching staff in the division. I thought they'd succeeded, but now I'm not so sure. The Padres seem to have taken the biggest risk, but it will look like a brilliant gamble if both Wells and Maddux pay off.
Drew has a slight edge in offense, but Nixon has fewer errors with about 60 more games played, plus a slightly higher fielding percentage (althought a slightly lower average range factor), AND he already know how the ball is going to bounce of the wall at Fenway, which isn't something that you can take care of in Spring Training. What other stadium has 18 different facets (plus a ladder, but the right fielder doesn't really deal with that) on the outfield wall between the lines? There are three just in the right field corner alone (which reminds me, how many stadiums have that corner in play?)
I'd take the slight loss in hitting (with Manny and Ortiz, plus Lugo for leadoff, and Youk for, well, anywhere, we could afford it) and go with a better fielder who knows that particular outfield (which is important in this case), ESPECIALLY if he would take less money.
Too late now though, good luck in Cleveland Trot.
Clement has indeed been a wash, Foulke was signed before Johnny left, and Tavarez did a great job filling in as a starter last year. I think with a working left hand, Coco will do just as well in center, if not better because he actually has an arm. Damon is, however, one of, if not THE best leadoff hitter in the game.fotografica said:
Agreed. Boomer pitched pretty well for a few innings until his knee got whacked, and I guess he did alright after the trade too.
Even Colorado?
The Dodger's off season strategy was to build the deepest pitching staff in the division. I thought they'd succeeded, but now I'm not so sure. The Padres seem to have taken the biggest risk, but it will look like a brilliant gamble if both Wells and Maddux pay off.
Colorado isn't what they were last year when they surprised all of baseball. Look at the ERA+ of Cook and Francis and I think it is clear they have a solid #1 and #2. Not really sure why they traded Jennings who looked great, but Fuentes, in the bullpen, ain't bad either. They have some arms, but still the weakest team in the division.
The Dodgers have Schmidt as an ace and have added quality, in what could be a coup of sorts, with signing Randy Wolf. If Wolf is healthy they have the best starting five on paper. Of course, it's not just Wolf's health LA may have problems with, but assuming no big injuries to Schmidt, Penny, and Wolf they are top notch. I'd rather have the Giants rotation because I think the young pitchers have a higher ceiling than the Dodger pitchers, but they both are quality staffs. Where the Dodgers are clearly better is in the closer role. Again I love the Giants young arms, but Benitez gives me fits. I'd much rather try Corriea, Wilson, or Sadler in the role.
Nobody but nobody wants to pitch in Denver. The Rockies' best bet has always been to sign over-the-hill sluggers who've got warning track power everywhere else.
I don't believe we know the ceilings yet for the young Dodger starters (Billingsley, Kuo), and I think by no means have we yet seen the best of Jonathan Broxton.
As another rehab long shot, the Dodgers recently signed Chin-hui Tsao. I don't know much about him, other than he was a major prospect for Colorado a few years ago who could throw 100 MPH, before experiencing every injury in the book.
He's being made a scapegoat for one simple fact.He's on the verge of breaking the most hallowed record in baseball.Let's face it.If Bond's had 500 HR's right now,nobody would care about Barry Bonds or any allegations or be interested in what/if he took. Is it wrong to center it all on him?Sure.But he's the center of attention because with each HR he puts out there,he gets closer to breaking it and that makes Selig squirm.That's why so much attention is being focused on him. And that's why guys like McGuire,Sosa,Clemens etc aren't in the spotlight as far as alleged steroid use. Wrong,yes..But it's an unfortunate reality.
My whole problem with the deal is it's for five years.The Brass wouldnt sign Damon for more than 3 beacause of his bum shoulder,but they'll sign a guy(Drew)with a worse injury history,close to the same age,for a hell of a lot more cash and five years.It just doesnt make sense.It really is unfortunate WMP showed an inability to handle RF because it woud have negated the need for this signing.Drew has a slight edge in offense, but Nixon has fewer errors with about 60 more games played, plus a slightly higher fielding percentage (althought a slightly lower average range factor), AND he already know how the ball is going to bounce of the wall at Fenway, which isn't something that you can take care of in Spring Training. What other stadium has 18 different facets (plus a ladder, but the right fielder doesn't really deal with that) on the outfield wall between the lines? There are three just in the right field corner alone (which reminds me, how many stadiums have that corner in play?)
I'd take the slight loss in hitting (with Manny and Ortiz, plus Lugo for leadoff, and Youk for, well, anywhere, we could afford it) and go with a better fielder who knows that particular outfield (which is important in this case), ESPECIALLY if he would take less money.
Too late now though, good luck in Cleveland Trot.
Clement has indeed been a wash, Foulke was signed before Johnny left, and Tavarez did a great job filling in as a starter last year. I think with a working left hand, Coco will do just as well in center, if not better because he actually has an arm. Damon is, however, one of, if not THE best leadoff hitter in the game.
Tavarez is like Jekyll and Hyde.You never know which one you will get or which one will show up. Did well down the stretch,BUT the Sox were out of it and there was no pressure on him at all.
Was just reading this:
"For three years, it has been easy to see a conflict coming for Commissioner Bud Selig as Bonds draws a bead on Henry Aaron's career record of 755 homers. The steroid cloud hanging over Bonds raises questions about how Selig and MLB will commemorate a record. A longtime friendship with Aaron makes it personally awkward for Selig.
But now that Bonds has moved within 21, and now that he has agreed to contract terms with the Giants, it's hard to imagine anything other than indictment, suspension or injury could get in the way of his passing Aaron. His unemployment would lead to charges of collusion and unfair labor practices. Litigation from that case might go on longer than BALCO, if you can imagine that, which is probably why the Giants are so tight-lipped.
"The player is unsigned, and contract issues remain unresolved," Giants general manager Brian Sabean told the Chronicle last week.
If the Giants want out of their contract, they probably can't use the failed amphetamine test because legally they should not have received the confidential information."
It will be interesting to see how this drama turns out..
Wells and Maddux should give Padres fans shivers. I love Peavy, I love Young -- but then what? I officially predict a July/August collapse.
The Dodgers have done big time things with that rotation -- Schmidt takes pressure off Lowe, and it's about time for Randy Wolf to be Randy Wolf again. The advantage the Dodgers have, as IJ points out -- is young arms. I don't see why Billingsley won't be a serviceable number four -- or more likely number three -- this season. And there's more behind him for when Penny's arm falls off. Wed that to what is probably the best lineup in the division and it looks like LA's to lose.
I have to say, though, the rotation I really love is in San Francicso. Cain and Zito are the best one two in the division (maybe in the NL this year) and Lowry and Matt Morris (and god knows who -- perhaps Russ Ortiz has something up his aforeto crusty with age and walks sleeve) round out a good rotation. They'll have trouble scoring runs, but on paper, they should be in it 'till the end.
And the Rockies? I love Cook and Francis, too, but Byung-Hyun Kim and Choo Freeman'll only take you so far. Good luck, Josh Fogg ...
IJ look at Colorado's Team ERA for the last five years and I think you will notice a dramatic drop, especially over the past two years. A lot of that may have to do with the "humidor" effect on the baseball, as well as getting some pretty good young arms. Not to say Colorado is a pitcher's paradise now that they put the ball in cold storage, but it is much better than it was. Still have too many balls drop in that huge outfield, but you can't have everything.
With the Dodgers, I wasn't taking a shot at the Dodgers young arms, only pointing to the Giants' strength in that regard. I believe Billingsley is the number five starter going into the season and think he has the talent to be a quality starter. Broxton does look great as well, maybe the closer of the future. I'm not as sold on Saito repeating what he did last year as most Dodger fans are (of course, he really doesn't qualify as a "young" arm,) but he is a better bet than Benitez. If you want to be jealous of pitching prospects, however, here is the guy to watch.
Pads have a rotation of Peavy, Young, Maddox, Hensley, and, now, Wells. That's not so bad. In fact, if Maddox and Wells stay healthy that's pretty damn good. They also have the best bullpen in the National League, which helps the starting rotation not just a little bit.
I don't dispute the Dodgers as pre-season favorites, or the ranking of their starting rotation as the best in the division. In fact, I think I said that myself. I only added that I like the Giants staff even more because of the ceiling of their young arms. Zito is still only 28, Cain is 22, Lowry is 25, and Sanchez (the presumptive fifth starter unless Ortiz takes it away from him) is 23. That's a heck of a lot of youth in the starting rotation. Add to that Correia, Wilson, Sadler, and Lincecum and it is easy to see why the rest of baseball wants the Giants young pitchers. Sorry, you're not going to get them.
Going into last season I thought the Dodgers were clearly the team to beat in the NL West, but then they lost some key pieces and had to scrap for the pennant. This year, I think the Dodgers still have an edge, but it's narrower than last, with the improvements we've seen in the division, especially in pitching. The NL West is going to be at least a three-way dogfight. I'll be exciting. A lot, if not the whole ball of wax, will come down to quality of the deals the teams can make down the stretch. This division will not be won by anybody in July, that's for sure.
One misnomer I hope will be put to rest in 2007 is the myth of the "weak" NL West!
One misnomer I hope will be put to rest in 2007 is the myth of the "weak" NL West!
Last year the Padres and the Dodgers both had records that were not only above .500 but also second only to the Mets in the entire NL. The Central Division, with the eventual Series winners St. Louis, had a much worse record than the West. You're still judging the West by 2005, macnut.
It is very uncertain about this getting done. In baseball terms, it is tantamount to committing suicide not to sign Bonds. The Giants have no other player who qualifies as a legit clean-up hitter. Bonds still strikes fear in opposing teams and his second half finish as well as all the reports about his physical shape give the Giants hope to contend. Without Bonds it will take a miracle for that to happen.
As to the fans and Giants' ownership, Giants' fans still love him, and with good cause, but there are some who are just tired of the drama surrounding him off the field. More importantly, it is clear that many in the owners circles and the league office would like him gone and are putting pressure on the Giants to get rid of him. I think the Giants were ready to do just that, but their attempts to get Soriano, Lee, Manny etc. all fell through. When that happened they decided to go another year with Barry. That has made the Commissioner's office and others very uncomfortable, and you get things like this leak about his test that pushes the Giants to back away.
If I had to bet, I'd say this contract doesn't get done, but that's mostly based on my low opinion of the cowardly class that masquerades as Baseball's leadership. There is no doubt that if it was just a matter of whether Barry could still help a team win he would have lots of offers to choose from.
Aside from the fact that Bonds has the scandal and the HR record and the fact that he fills seats, doesn't hide the fact that he is in his 40's. He is old and if the Giants want to be competitive in the near future they will need to cut ties with Bonds and look younger. He will break down, and if he doesn't get the record it will be money lost. Is he worth 16 million or could they of forced him into a 5 million take it or leave it deal.
Who do you suggest would fill his shoes and perform better on the field in 2007? Any trade for a player remotely qualified (Manny, Andruw Jones, etc.) would cost the Giants too much in young pitching. Much better for the team to play Bonds this year, and make a run for Jones next year when he is a free agent. After that they begin to have some young players in the lower minors who look like prize prospects who may well contribute.
Thank you for your very kind insight into the Giants chances. If I recall correctly, the Cards won the Series last year with how many wins in the regular season - 83? With Bonds, the Giants sure have a chance at the division, and with their pitching they have a chance once the make the playoffs. So, no thank you, writing off the season to please you isn't something I'd like to try.
This is only true in the sense that the union has a strong position against all the owners. The commissioner of baseball is chosen by the owners. He's their puppet or mouthpiece, depending on how you look at it. There was a time when the commissioner's office had a bit more independence, but Selig's tenure put a stop to that.
I don't know that he's done nothing. Revenue and attendance are at an all-time high. A baseball fan has access to viewing almost any MLB game he wants to see, which wasn't true a few short years ago. The wild card turned out well, and so did interleague play. Of course, he was complicit in covering up and/or ignoring steroid use, but so were every owner, coach and player. The cancellation of the 1994 World Series will always leave him in my doghouse. I can't forgive him for that. But I can't say he's done nothing right either.
With the '94 debacle I decided that Bud Selig was just about the worst thing to happen to Major League Baseball after the designated hitter. I think we tend to forget now how the game hit the skids in terms of popularity in the years following 1994. In fact it's arguable that the game only revived in the late '90s because Selig decided to avert his eyes from the doping problem. And we're paying dearly for that decision now. As far as I'm concerned, Bug Selig is and will always be Fan Enemy No. 1.