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MLB Hot Stove Thread 07

Sayhey said:
Trouble is, fotografica, steroids do none of these things.
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As I think I've said here before, I've always thought his symptoms were more like HGH than steroids. (Even intense workouts don't make your skull bigger, for example.) But there's no test for it, so it's even more speculative than the other allegations.

Sayhey said:
Broxton does look great as well, maybe the closer of the future. I'm not as sold on Saito repeating what he did last year as most Dodger fans are (of course, he really doesn't qualify as a "young" arm,) but he is a better bet than Benitez. If you want to be jealous of pitching prospects, however,
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I think that between Saito and Broxton, the closer spot will be OK, although you're right that it's doubtful Saito will be that good again. I don't think he put up numbers like that in Japan and he's in his mid- to late-30s. Everything points to a fluke year. The middle relief doesn't look great per se, but there are so many potential starters that whoever trickles down to the relief corps can't be too terrible. OK, forget I put that in writing.

You're right though, Benitez is too inconsistent to have confidence in. And he's been like that for years. One game he'll blow away every hitter he sees, the next, you wonder how he made it to the majors. The truth is there just aren't many strong closers and there never have been. That's the why the few guys out there are superstars.

Sayhey said:
Who do you suggest would fill his shoes and perform better on the field in 2007? Any trade for a player remotely qualified (Manny, Andruw Jones, etc.) would cost the Giants too much in young pitching. Much better for the team to play Bonds this year, and make a run for Jones next year when he is a free agent. After that they begin to have some young players in the lower minors who look like prize prospects who may well contribute.
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That's one thing that's pretty clear whether or not you like Bonds or the Giants: The Giants have hitched their wagon directly to him since 1993. That's paid off in a new stadium, high attendance, more revenue, and playoff appearances. It's hurt them the last few years in bad PR, clubhouse discord, his injuries, and payroll. At some point it kind of snowballed, and now each has become the other's main (or only) option. You hear a lot of people saying the Giants should dump him, but that's hard for them to do for reasons beyond his production.
 
IJ Reilly said:
Going into last season I thought the Dodgers were clearly the team to beat in the NL West, but then they lost some key pieces and had to scrap for the pennant. This year, I think the Dodgers still have an edge, but it's narrower than last, with the improvements we've seen in the division, especially in pitching. The NL West is going to be at least a three-way dogfight. I'll be exciting. A lot, if not the whole ball of wax, will come down to quality of the deals the teams can make down the stretch. This division will not be won by anybody in July, that's for sure.

One misnomer I hope will be put to rest in 2007 is the myth of the "weak" NL West!
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If we've learned anything since 2000, it's that the critical thing is making the playoffs. Once you do that, it's all about how you're playing in October, and you can't really know that in April. Every team's game plan should be to make the playoffs and then hope you get hot.
 
aloofman said:
If we've learned anything since 2000, it's that the critical thing is making the playoffs. Once you do that, it's all about how you're playing in October, and you can't really know that in April. Every team's game plan should be to make the playoffs and then hope you get hot.
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The old story is, the first two months are for evaluation; the second two months are for adjustment; and the last two months are for winning.
 
aloofman said:
I think that between Saito and Broxton, the closer spot will be OK, although you're right that it's doubtful Saito will be that good again. I don't think he put up numbers like that in Japan and he's in his mid- to late-30s. Everything points to a fluke year. The middle relief doesn't look great per se, but there are so many potential starters that whoever trickles down to the relief corps can't be too terrible. OK, forget I put that in writing.
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I don't think Siato is any more of a fluke than Eric Gagne was a fluke. Both were mediocre starters converted mid-career into effective closers. It's a different talent. Saito has excellent location and a tricky delivery, which seem to work for him far better in 15 pitches than 100. Broxton is more the classic closer style, but I wouldn't want to see the Dodgers relying on him in that role just yet. I've saw him fold like a tent at least a couple of times last year, which tells me he still needs more seasoning and confidence. That's okay, he's still very young.
 
IJ Reilly said:
I don't think Siato is any more of a fluke than Eric Gagne was a fluke. Both were mediocre starters converted mid-career into effective closers. It's a different talent. Saito has excellent location and a tricky delivery, which seem to work for him far better in 15 pitches than 100. Broxton is more the classic closer style, but I wouldn't want to see the Dodgers relying on him in that role just yet. I've saw him fold like a tent at least a couple of times last year, which tells me he still needs more seasoning and confidence. That's okay, he's still very young.
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He's also very cheap, and any time you can get decent production out of an inexpensive player, you have to weigh that against a pricey veteran. I hope he doesn't rely too much on his delivery befuddling hitters because they tend to catch on eventually, like they did with Nomo. I think his situation is closer to Nomo than Gagne, but if he pitches anything like the in-his-prime Gagne in 2007, then I will gleefully salute you.

Anyway, I like that we kept both of them. If both of them pitch well enough to close, then that's a great dilemma to have.
 
aloofman said:
He's also very cheap, and any time you can get decent production out of an inexpensive player, you have to weigh that against a pricey veteran. I hope he doesn't rely too much on his delivery befuddling hitters because they tend to catch on eventually, like they did with Nomo. I think his situation is closer to Nomo than Gagne, but if he pitches anything like the in-his-prime Gagne in 2007, then I will gleefully salute you.

Anyway, I like that we kept both of them. If both of them pitch well enough to close, then that's a great dilemma to have.
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I would also like to have seen the Dodgers hang onto Gagne, and for more than sentimental reasons. Broxton may work out just fine as the main setup man and occasional closer, but he could also hit the wall at some point, as youngsters often do. Nomo, IIRC, also had control problems.
 
IJ Reilly said:
I would also like to have seen the Dodgers hang onto Gagne, and for more than sentimental reasons. Broxton may work out just fine as the main setup man and occasional closer, but he could also hit the wall at some point, as youngsters often do. Nomo, IIRC, also had control problems.
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My reasons would be mostly sentimental. His future performance is completely up in the air. There are many examples of closers having only a few good years and then never doing it again, far more than the Hoffmans and Riveras out there. On the other hand, I'd hate to see him be good again for another team. It just feels like he belongs here.

I've long been convinced (admittedly, without proof) that it was after hitters figured out Nomo's delivery that it became more obvious that Nomo relied heavily on swinging strikes outside the zone. Once they laid off those splitters and forkballs in the dirt, it revealed that control wasn't his strong suit in the first place. Anyway, it worked for almost three years, so I can't complain.
 
Williams doesn't have spot but doesn't want to retire

The Yankees haven't made any move to clear a roster spot for free agent Bernie Williams, but the longtime outfielder still isn't making plans to retire, or join another team.

"He's not even talking about [retiring]," Yankees catcher Jorge Posada told New York reporters after receiving an award in Manahttan on Tuesday night. "He said he wants to play one more year."

Although Williams has told Posada that other teams have called, the five-time All-Star and 1998 batting champion isn't ready to leave New York.

"He wants to be a Yankee forever," Posada said. "Hopefully, he gets a chance to do that."

With Hideki Matsui in left, Johnny Damon in center, Bobby Abreu in right and up-and-coming Melky Cabrera assuming the fourth outfielder role, Williams doesn't really have a spot. Designated hitter may also be too crowded.

"It looks like there's not a spot for him," Lee Mazzilli, the former Yankees coach, told reporters. "It's hard to see that with Bernie. He's a player who stands for all that baseball's about and all that the Yankees are about. I'm not too sure anyone out there doesn't pull for Bernie."

Williams batted .281 with 12 home runs and 61 RBIs last season. Posada indicated that Williams could ask the Yankees for a minor league contract and then retire with the team, but he might prefer to stay in shape and see if the Yanks have a need later in the season.
 
Red Sox, Drew finally close deal

The five-year, $70 million agreement was reached Dec. 5 but not finished until the lawyers worked out an arrangement that would allow the Red Sox to opt out of the guaranteed money for 2010 and 2011 if Drew's right shoulder injury recurs. Drew had surgery on the shoulder in September 2005, and the Red Sox wanted to make sure that they wouldn't be responsible for all of the money if he was damaged goods.

Drew, 31, has had injuries throughout his career, but he played in 146 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season and hit .283 with 20 homers and a team-high 100 RBIs. But he said his shoulder feels great, and he cites the fact that he batted .333 with six homers and 23 RBIs in the last 25 games last season.
 
Kwyjibo said:
ummm ... the thing is that there was lots of talk about him failing his physical because of his shoulder problems and the red sox wanting out ... thats why its news.
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ummmmm,same news we've been hearing around here all along (failing the physical as well as the laundry list of injuries).SOOOO it isn't really news here ;)
 
Well most Red Sox fans don't want him on the team. Plus the fact that they don't know how well he will play in Boston.
 
MacNut said:
Well most Red Sox fans don't want him on the team. Plus the fact that they don't know how well he will play in Boston.
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You are correct on both counts....And the only reason it took so long to finalize,is that the both sides were going back and forth on the opt out clause..
 
You're not.No thanks..His numbers have been on the decline the last couple years. When he did put up great numbers,they were in Colorado,a hitter's paradise.Helton is having some back issues, he's 34 in August, and his home/road splits were pretty dramatic last year (338/445/531 vs 266/360/421). Not the worst numbers in the world, but what will he look like in two year, four years, six years. Seems like there are an awful lot of bored baseball writers now.I'd rather not give up Ellsbury either...
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP
2003 29 COL NL 160 583 135 209 49 5 33 117 0 4 111 72 .358 .458
2004 30 COL NL 154 547 115 190 49 2 32 96 3 0 127 72 .347 .469
2005 31 COL NL 144 509 92 163 45 2 20 79 3 0 106 80 .320 .445
2006 32 COL NL 145 546 94 165 40 5 15 81 3 2 91 64 .302 .404

That's quite a dropoff in production..
 
fotografica said:
You're not.No thanks..His numbers have been on the decline the last couple years. When he did put up great numbers,they were in Colorado,a hitter's paradise.Helton is having some back issues, he's 34 in August, and his home/road splits were pretty dramatic last year (338/445/531 vs 266/360/421). Not the worst numbers in the world, but what will he look like in two year, four years, six years. Seems like there are an awful lot of bored baseball writers now.I'd rather not give up Ellsbury either...
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP
2003 29 COL NL 160 583 135 209 49 5 33 117 0 4 111 72 .358 .458
2004 30 COL NL 154 547 115 190 49 2 32 96 3 0 127 72 .347 .469
2005 31 COL NL 144 509 92 163 45 2 20 79 3 0 106 80 .320 .445
2006 32 COL NL 145 546 94 165 40 5 15 81 3 2 91 64 .302 .404

That's quite a dropoff in production..
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IIRC, he used to put up pretty decent numbers on the road. But he's definitely fallen off the last couple seasons. And he's very expensive.
 
I wouldn't mind seeing Helton in Boston -- let's not forget that the dropoff in his production is tied to the humidor, too. And I haven't seen anything in Hansen or DelCarmen that makes me think hanging on to them is worth any great anything ...
 
IJ Reilly said:
Can Sammy make a comeback? Should he?
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070130&content_id=1789758&vkey=hotstove2006&fext=.jsp
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While I give Sammy little chance of making it back given his drop off in performance, there is so little risk for the Rangers with the contract guarantee so small and it being only a minor league try out that I got to say why not? I'd just as soon he retired, but then I'm not a big fan of Sosa. I'm sure Ranger fans would love it if he made it back.
 
Sayhey said:
While I give Sammy little chance of making it back given his drop off in performance, there is so little risk for the Rangers with the contract guarantee so small and it being only a minor league try out that I got to say why not? I'd just as soon he retired, but then I'm not a big fan of Sosa. I'm sure Ranger fans would love it if he made it back.
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It's a long-shot, but if it pays off the Texas management will look like geniuses, if only because nobody else saw any latent potential in Sosa.

Meanwhile, I note that Barry Bonds' contract includes and out-clause where the Giants aren't obligated to his salary if he's indicted, but also that he'd be expected to play out the season anyway. Color me confused.
 
IJ Reilly said:
It's a long-shot, but if it pays off the Texas management will look like geniuses, if only because nobody else saw any latent potential in Sosa.
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They do have one of the easiest places in baseball to hit. I mean I hope he does well ... I actually have his goodbye message still hanging up on my wall.
 
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