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MLB Hotstove 08
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Williams lost five season in the prime of his career to military service. What his power numbers would have been with those years added back in is anybody's guess, but a conservative estimate of 150+ more homeruns is not a bad bet (meaning over 670 homeruns in his career.) He was undoubtedly one of the great power hitters of all time. Will ARod pass that number? I don't know, but I thought Griffey would hit 700 homeruns looking forward from about 2000. Junior is not going to make it. Nothing is certain, even ARod - though I wish him luck now that he is not a Yankee and not yet a Dodger. 
I think you meant WAS Williams a better hitter, since his current hitting ability isn't really debatable.
I think relative to the strength of his league, plus his prime years lost to military service, Williams probably still put together the better total career. When Williams retired he was second only to Babe Ruth in many career stat categories, and few hitters of his era were hitting a lot of homers. Williams often led the league with fewer than 40 home runs because it was a much more difficult era for hitters. Physical fitness and nutrition knowledge was primitive by comparison, and no one worked out in the offseason back then.
On Rodriguez's side, he's far better defensively than Williams was, and he has played much more critical infield positions. Before switching to third, he was on his way to challenging Honus Wagner as the greatest shortstop of all time.
Factoring all these things in, I'd say Williams still has an edge, but if Rodriguez stays at a high level, even tapering off with age, then I think he'll be right up there. Even if he retires tomorrow, Rodriguez is a first-ballot HOFer.
Williams lost five season in the prime of his career to military service. What his power numbers would have been with those years added back in is anybody's guess, but a conservative estimate of 150+ more homeruns is not a bad bet (meaning over 670 homeruns in his career.) He was undoubtedly one of the great power hitters of all time. Will ARod pass that number? I don't know, but I thought Griffey would hit 700 homeruns looking forward from about 2000. Junior is not going to make it. Nothing is certain, even ARod - though I wish him luck now that he is not a Yankee and not yet a Dodger.
Am I the only one who thinks Rodriguez -- despite the rumors -- has ruled out signing with the Giants? No way he challenges the home run record playing half his games in <insert latest telecom brand name here> Park.
If the Giants want to enter the ARod sweepstakes, and I hope they do, they have the money to sign him, and AT&T is a wonderful place to play. If he wants the best park to break the record he will look to Denver, Arizona, Houston, or another of the band box parks to play in, but I think other considerations may play into his decision. If Torre signs with LA, and the Dodgers want to put up the kind of money it will take to get Rodriguez, then I'd say the Dodgers are the favorite in the ARod sweepstakes. But then again, Dodger Stadium isn't the best park in which to break the HR record either.
btw, I read the Dodgers are likely to go after Andruw Jones, but I don't see them going after both Jones and Rodriguez, do you?
The name has certainly come up but I don't know about likely. Many of these potential moves will be dictated by the Torre influence. Jones and Rodriguez does have a nice sound to it, but I wonder what those two names would do to the price of a Dodger Dog (not that I eat them anymore).
The bandbox park factor is one of the reasons I think the Cubs are in the running. Then again, Boras has talked Rodriguez into signing with a going-nowhere Rangers team too, so he might convince him that Dodger Stadium isn't so bad. Actually, in recent years, Dodger Stadium hasn't been as homer-unfriendly as it once was. It's doubles and triples that the park seems to make scarce.
With Boras in charge you can't help but think that the highest bidder is all that matters here. IIRC, back in 2000 everyone was thinking that Rodriguez would get his huge contract from the Mets and the Rangers surprised just about everyone by bidding higher. It could be a team we don't expect that lands him. I wonder if he will sign before Christmas?
Boras would like that, wouldn't he? Maybe he can record a jingle that uses both their names?
While I welcome the chance to boot Pierre out of center field (see above), I'm not sure Jones makes much sense here. I think he's very overrated: kind of a strikeout-or-homer hitter and he's not as great in the field as he used to be. He'll also cost a lot, and we already have an overpriced center fielder.
So no, I don't see them going after both, but then McCourt seems to have more money than we thought, so who knows? I think that Boras will get Rodriguez signed first so that he establishes a new high water mark for contracts, then negotiate Jones and his other clients off that figure.
Williams lost five season in the prime of his career to military service. What his power numbers would have been with those years added back in is anybody's guess, but a conservative estimate of 150+ more homeruns is not a bad bet (meaning over 670 homeruns in his career.) He was undoubtedly one of the great power hitters of all time. Will ARod pass that number? I don't know, but I thought Griffey would hit 700 homeruns looking forward from about 2000. Junior is not going to make it. Nothing is certain, even ARod - though I wish him luck now that he is not a Yankee and not yet a Dodger.
I am not doubting Williams' greatness, but if you look at the home run rate in hr/ab Arod is nearly tied with fewer AB.
The big discrepancy is of course in walks, where Williams had over 2,000 in those 7,706 AB while Arod has only 915 in 7,350 career AB.
Interestingly, Williams batted only .200 in his only World Series appearance in 1946 with no extra base hits and only 1 RBI, covering 25 AB.
Arod has a .279 avg with 9 doubles, 7 HR, and 17 RBI in 147 AB but that obviously covers a lot of new postseason games that Williams never had the chance to play due to the formats used then.
Dodger Stadium became substantially less pitcher-friendly when foul ground was reduced a couple of years ago. I don't know if this is borne out statistically, but it should have made at least a small difference in the number of base hits of all types.
The last stats I saw on it were that Dodger Stadium had basically become homer-neutral. I wonder if the wind patterns or temperatures have changed in that local area? I'm not sure there's any complete explanation for it, but it's not the place that fly balls go to die anymore.
Doubles and triples are still low because the power alleys aren't that deep and there are no crazy corners.
Yep, if we track the park factors for Dodger Stadium, we see this:
PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))
2001: 0.810
2002: 0.825
2003: 0.868
2004: 0.909
2005: 0.901
2006: 1.046
2007: 1.053
Below 1.00 favors pitchers.
Above 1.00 favors batters.
Now if you look at the top and bottom scores in MLB as a whole from 2001 to 2007:
2001: top= 1.584; bottom = 0.562
2002: top= 1.440; bottom = 0.540
2003: top= 1.382; bottom = 0.515
2004: top= 1.412; bottom = 0.834
2005: top= 1.285; bottom = 0.803
2006: top= 1.153; bottom = 0.860
2007: top= 1.177; bottom = 0.755
2001: 14 parks were 1.00 or higher
2002: 12
2003: 11
2004: 14
2005: 15
2006: 15
2007: 16 parks were 1.00 or higher
So you can see the trend...it's not just Dodger Stadium.
For example, Yankee Stadium went from a park factor of 0.805 in 2001 to a park factor of 1.070 in 2007.
Of course a lot of it depends on how well your team plays at home versus on the road due to the nature of the metric itself.
If you simply have a sucky road team, there may be a very high run differential that has nothing to do with anything but the psychology of the players on the roster that year.
Andy Petitte has said that its either the Yankees in 08 or retirement.
via espn:
A day after saying he'd written goodbye letters to some of his Boston Red Sox teammates, Curt Schilling has posted a list of 13 teams he'd be willing to play for next season as he enters free agency for the first time.
The right-hander, who turns 41 on Nov. 16, made a list that includes the Red Sox but not the New York Yankees. Schilling filed for free agency Tuesday.
Schilling wrote on his Web site that his first choice remains re-signing with Boston.
He listed 2007 playoff teams Cleveland, the Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia, Arizona and the Chicago Cubs, plus 2006 World Series teams Detroit and St. Louis, the New York Mets, Atlanta, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego and Milwaukee.
via espn:
A day after saying he'd written goodbye letters to some of his Boston Red Sox teammates, Curt Schilling has posted a list of 13 teams he'd be willing to play for next season as he enters free agency for the first time.
The right-hander, who turns 41 on Nov. 16, made a list that includes the Red Sox but not the New York Yankees. Schilling filed for free agency Tuesday.
Schilling wrote on his Web site that his first choice remains re-signing with Boston.
He listed 2007 playoff teams Cleveland, the Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia, Arizona and the Chicago Cubs, plus 2006 World Series teams Detroit and St. Louis, the New York Mets, Atlanta, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego and Milwaukee.
Yup, because he was too proud to just hit singles when he thought his team needed his HR power.
That wasn't just a tactic against him in the World Series though. Several teams did that during the regular season too, famously by the Lou Boudreau-led Cleveland Indians in the late 1940s. (Can you imagine a 20-something player-manager today? Bet that never happens again.) It was only one series, so it's not like it's a good sample of his abilities. Williams often said it was his biggest disappointment, letting his team down by not hitting well in the 1946 World Series.
White Sox seem interested in Torii Hunter:
White Sox To Meet With Torii Hunter
According to Joe Cowley of the Sun-Times, White Sox GM Kenny Williams plans to meet with Torii Hunter next week. They can't talk contract terms, but Williams will work to convince Torii that the South Side is the place to be. Apparently Hunter told a friend he was receptive to the Sox.
It seems that five years and $75MM is the minimum Hunter will accept, and the Sox seem prepared to do that. It's a huge commitment for a guy coming off a career year. Plus, Hunter doesn't contribute an above-average OBP, something the White Sox need. Aaron Rowand is the alternative if the Sox can't sign Hunter. Though both are Type A free agents, Chicago's #8 overall pick is protected.
Cowley adds that the possibility of signing David Eckstein has caused the White Sox to hold off on Juan Uribe's $5MM option. However Cowley's source says the Sox will pick it up and use Uribe at second or third base if necessary. November 7th is the deadline for Uribe's option.
The usual daily A Rod talk
Gwen Knapp doesn't see the Dodgers getting A-Rod for a couple of reasons. First, of course, there's the price. Second, there's a possibly shaky relationship with Scott Boras given last year's unexpected opt-out by J.D. Drew.
Mark Feinsand disagrees - his L.A. source says the Dodgers will make a push for him. The expected hiring of Joe Torre will basically be a non-factor in Rodriguez's decision. Plan B for the Dodgers might be to sign Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones. That leaves Juan Pierre in left field or traded. Hey, it was a dumb signing at the time.
Feinsand also has a source indicating that Rodriguez is hoping the Yankees will entertain the possibility of bringing him back. The Yankees, of course, are scarred by the Texas money lost and have pledged repeatedly that they will not be involved. We've seen this a million times - teams love fresh faces. Say A-Rod had played out his Texas contract to this point - do you think the Yankees would be in the mix for him then? If the Yankees don't want A-Rod because he's simply too expensive, that's reasonable. But if they simply feel scorned by the opt-out, that's emotion.
Omar Minaya said on a conference call yesterday that he planned on discussing the team's interest in A-Rod with David Wright, since Wright would have to move to second base to accomodate him.
White Sox To Meet With Torii Hunter
According to Joe Cowley of the Sun-Times, White Sox GM Kenny Williams plans to meet with Torii Hunter next week. They can't talk contract terms, but Williams will work to convince Torii that the South Side is the place to be. Apparently Hunter told a friend he was receptive to the Sox.
It seems that five years and $75MM is the minimum Hunter will accept, and the Sox seem prepared to do that. It's a huge commitment for a guy coming off a career year. Plus, Hunter doesn't contribute an above-average OBP, something the White Sox need. Aaron Rowand is the alternative if the Sox can't sign Hunter. Though both are Type A free agents, Chicago's #8 overall pick is protected.
Cowley adds that the possibility of signing David Eckstein has caused the White Sox to hold off on Juan Uribe's $5MM option. However Cowley's source says the Sox will pick it up and use Uribe at second or third base if necessary. November 7th is the deadline for Uribe's option.
The usual daily A Rod talk
Gwen Knapp doesn't see the Dodgers getting A-Rod for a couple of reasons. First, of course, there's the price. Second, there's a possibly shaky relationship with Scott Boras given last year's unexpected opt-out by J.D. Drew.
Mark Feinsand disagrees - his L.A. source says the Dodgers will make a push for him. The expected hiring of Joe Torre will basically be a non-factor in Rodriguez's decision. Plan B for the Dodgers might be to sign Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones. That leaves Juan Pierre in left field or traded. Hey, it was a dumb signing at the time.
Feinsand also has a source indicating that Rodriguez is hoping the Yankees will entertain the possibility of bringing him back. The Yankees, of course, are scarred by the Texas money lost and have pledged repeatedly that they will not be involved. We've seen this a million times - teams love fresh faces. Say A-Rod had played out his Texas contract to this point - do you think the Yankees would be in the mix for him then? If the Yankees don't want A-Rod because he's simply too expensive, that's reasonable. But if they simply feel scorned by the opt-out, that's emotion.
Omar Minaya said on a conference call yesterday that he planned on discussing the team's interest in A-Rod with David Wright, since Wright would have to move to second base to accomodate him.
The Torre deal appears to be all but done, but still no announcement. Ned Colletti spent the better part of Wednesday denying that any signing was imminent and refuting press reports (one of which ran on the front page of the LA Times!) that it was. Finally, near the end of the day, he admitted that the Dodgers have spoken to Torre, but no more. The Dodgers can't let this soap opera drag on any longer.
Yeah,I can't see the point in letting this drag on,especially with the free agent deadline coming....Just out of curiousity..Is LA a Dodger's town,or a Laker's town??Is it split?
I guess it kind of depends on whether you're a baseball or a basketball fan.
Actually the Dodgers have been eclipsed in popularity to a great extent in recent years by the Angels.
I guess it kind of depends on whether you're a baseball or a basketball fan.
Actually the Dodgers have been eclipsed in popularity to a great extent in recent years by the Angels.
True..Just curious which story was getting more media play?The Torre soap opera or the Kobe soap opera?
I guess it kind of depends on whether you're a baseball or a basketball fan.
It also depends on the time of year. I can be both. I think the Lakers have had a higher profile recently because of the three-peat and the Kobe-Shaq dramas. By comparison, the Dodgers had less soap-opera-ish headlines in the last ten years. But the Lakers have fallen out of contention and Dodger attendance is up, so I think it's closer now.
I wouldn't say eclipsed, more like parity now. The Angels used to be almost the Clippers of L.A. baseball. Now it's much more even. The big turning point, in my opinion, was when the Dodger front office let Scioscia leave.
Kobe will get more headlines as long as he's here. The local media has invested a lot more in Kobe over the years, so he'll be the big story. Until a couple weeks ago, Torre hadn't had much local interest here (beyond the obvious national baseball hype) since he left the Angels broadcasting job.
"Pissed off" is too strong a term. Bemused? Annoyed? Puzzled?
People who live in the L.A. megalopolis often refer to the whole area as L.A. (although I think that's sometimes because they don't know where the city limits are), so I don't think that's such a big deal.
It's the Orange County people that were annoyed because they despise the city of Los Angeles. They root for the Angels at least partly because it's their local team that's NOT in Los Angeles.
You could be right, but I don't know how you rate and rank a thing like popularity. I know only that the center of baseball gravity in the region has shifted substantially towards the Angels in recent years if only because they contend pretty consistently and the Dodgers have been also-rans. I've also heard quite a bit of discussion over the last few years about how the Dodgers squandered that spotlight and need to work very hard to earn it back. The Angels sticking "LA" in their name is more than an effort by the ownership to tap into the larger media market. It's a statement, and a direct challenge to the Dodgers over which team deserves to be called the regional standard-bearer.