I've been reading this thread for the past few days. Usually I'm a lurker and not a poster because I'm pretty sure nobody really cares about my input. However, this post has driven me to throw out a few of my ideas. So here is my - admittedly way too long - first post.
In the interest of full disclosure, I retired early and bought into a Verizon Wireless franchise. Fortunately we are one of the few allowed to sell the iPad and we are hoping that this will continue for the iPhone. That being said, I do not have blind allegiance to VZW. They do plenty to upset me on a daily basis. As part of being as prepared as possible for work, I have tried every network and every phone platform. I decided many years ago that Verizon was the right network for me. I also understand that it is not the network for everyone. It is nice that we have a choice in carriers. Which is a lot more than I can say about my cable company.
I am also a BlackBerry fan. Blasphemy on this forum, I know. But I have had a BB since they first came out and I will continue to use them. The BB does things that work for me. I also have an android phone (yes I'm a dork and I have 2 phones. BB for work and Android for personal use) and I really like the android platform. It does some amazing things and the ability to customize is really nice. I will miss the ability to have email alert tones of my choice on the iPhone. But I do live the iLife. I love my Apple products like the iMac, iPad, MBP, iPods, etc... I'm an apple fan and will trade the android phone in for the iPhone when it lands on Verizon.
I have not heard anything internally from Verizon to confirm this rumor. We never do. We didn't receive any iPad communication until it was already announced. However, I'm very convinced that the 1/11/11 event will be the iPhone announcement. I'm blown away by the people on this site that continue to maintain that Verizon will never get the iPhone. Wow.
As far as release cycles or the Verizon customers being upset if an iPhone 5 comes out on AT&T a few months after they purchase, a few things. First, from my experience in our stores, I think that many Verizon customers will be happy with whatever iPhone is available to them. Hell, that's how I feel. I have been wanting an I phone for so long, I would take a 3G right now if it were Verizon compatible. Also, if you look at the back of any CDMA phone, you will see a sticker or an imprint similar to "CDMA by Qualcomm." My understanding is that Qualcomm has a hand in every CDMA phone that is manufactured. Their CDMA chips go into every phone. I dont know if Apple will be an exception As a result, Verizon is usually the last to get any phone. The BB lineup is a prime example of this. AT&T had the pearl, world edition, curve, bold many months before Verizon. Even the first Android phones were on TMobile - tho VZW has really lead the charge with Android in the past year. My point is that Verizon CDMA phones typically lag behind those of other carriers. Verizon customers are used to this. So it would not be a surprise, or out of the realm of possibility to have an iPhone 4 or some variant thereof for a February release. I know full well that Apple marches to the beat of their own drum and has previously released the iPhone in the summer. But that doesn't mean they wont release a VZW iPhone in Feb. As many have pointed out, it actually makes sense. This allows Apple to spread things out. It actually makes a lot of sense to have a different cycle. Will customers get mad if they get an iPhone 4 and 5 months later, the iPhone 5 is launched for AT&T? Maybe. But it is no different than the android lineup. People bought up the Incredible when it was launched last summer. Now the 4g Incredible HD or Thunderbolt is due out within the next few months. Are people upset? Maybe some. But this is the world we live in. The update and advancement of phones is happening quickly. In a world of 2 year contracts, it is hard to think your phone won't be obsolete within the first year of that contract. So to me, it doesn't seem outlandish that we will see a version of the iP 4 now even if there is a new version slated for the summer. And that new version most likely will not be for CDMA anyway. I predict a 3G iPhone in Feb and an LTE iPhone next Feb. And really, LTE on a phone doesn't impress me nearly as much as the Internet cards/mifis. Things load on my android almost instantly. I can't see LTE making an earth-shattering difference.
In terms of release dates, early February makes perfect sense. I don't see Verizon announcing an iPhone and then having a release 5 months later. As it is, the rumors are killing us. Sales, for our stores at least, have been down because customers who are eligible to upgrade are waiting for the iPhone. I have to imagine this phenomenon isn't limited to my stores. In fact, I have spoken to several other people about this and find that it is the case in many outlets, retailer and corporate. So I think that Verizon would want to get an iPhone into the stores as soon as possible after the announcement. Otherwise, phone sales would suffer for the next 5-6 months.
The flip side to that is the people that purchased phones during the holiday season. They are still within their 30 day return window. By the way, in addition the getting rid of the annual upgrade, Verizon is shortening the return period from 30 to 14 days beginning on 1/16. Nonetheless, if an iPhone is launched mid January, there would be a ton of android returns. So an early February release date makes sense. It allows time for training, and it falls outside of the holiday return window and doesn't cause too long of a drop in sales. The company leadership isn't stupid. They know what they are doing. It's funny to read some of the comments posted here regarding what is or isn't fair to customers, and what Apple would or would not want to do, etc... It's clear that not everyone has a grasp on how business works. Which is perfectly fine. I have no idea how to fix my car or perform an appendectomy. That's the beauty of a diverse country and we should embrace that diversity. The bottom line is that Apple and Verizon(kind of) are publicly held companies. They are going to do what makes them money. They will do what they need to do to answer to their boards of directors. That's the way the world works and that is OK. It's foolish to think otherwise.
As far as carriers go, Verizon works for me where I live and travel which is primarily between Florida and New England. I have actually purchased an iPhone in the past and found that AT&T worked fine in Southern New England but I didn't have service in my house in Florida and coverage was spotty in New Hampshire. NYC was a nightmare with the iPhone. Thankfully I had old faithful, my BB Bold. As a result, I returned said iPhone within the 30 day window. Sadly, it took 3 months of fighting with AT&T customer service to adjust my bill for the 17 days of service I actually used and to remove an early termination fee that shouldn't have been charged to begin with. So that left a bad taste in my mouth. But that's me. I'm sure AT&T works for plenty of people. It's the blind faith to the carrier that I don't understand. An extra 11 million iPhones in the US on Verizon can only help apple and other iPhone users. As mentioned in this thread it allows for the development of more applications. Competition is almost always a benefit to the consumer. I'm a huge Apple fan and although they have plenty of money already, I'm glad that they will make more money on a Verizon iPhone. This allows Apple to keep doing what they have been doing. And let's face it, they have done some amazing things. So who cares if the iPhone is also on Verizon? It's a good thing!
What I wish is that Verizon would make available the plan that they were testing in Texas. It was a single line plan, 450 minutes, 5 friends and family numbers, unlimited messaging and unlimited smartphone data for 69.99/ mo. Family plan was the same but 10 friends and family and 1400 minutes for 129.99. Each additional line was 19.99 and all lines included unlimited data and messaging. If you look at verizons rate plans and atts, thet are almost identical. This smells of collusion to me.
So that seems to be the end of my rant for today. I think we will see the iPhone on Verizon in the next month and I am very excited about it for many reasons.