You're basically pontificating now.
The bottom line. After 1 year of sales, we'll see how the Air fairs compared to year-over-year sales. Until then, nobody, including me and you, knows how well it'll sell.
And you're missing the point about productivity. By design the iPad and iOS are poor at productivity. Terrible. And they won't get better either. Sure you can do some things with them, but desktop publishing isn't one of them. Windows 8.1 and the Surface are both, by design, excellent at productivity. Two main reasons:
1. The Surface has a built in kickstand and optional type cover integrated into the product.
2. Windows 8.1 allows for mouse input.
The iPad is a stripped down slate with no built in stand and no integrated keyboard cover. It relies on bulky, heavy, ugly and generally crappy third party options for a keyboard and stand. And any hope of mouse input is dashed because iOS isn't designed for it.
The iPad is a very good consumption device and a very poor productivity device for many applications.
These are the facts.