I think release really depends on the state of Siri. ...
Despite my post above trying to examine various sides of the argument I tend to agree with you still that being able to do an updated Siri demo that is at least somewhat credible and that Apple is confident is imminently releasable (no more WWDC24 missteps) is probably a gating factor for the next HomePod and maybe also the next Apple TV announcement as well.
On my alternate theory about ATV & HPM maybe being today's (Tuesday's) announcements based on the fact that tomorrow (Wednesday) might be 100% MacBook focussed I'm now wondering if there might not be any announcements tomorrow in which case presumably we'll see all the new MacBook stuff announced today and that might well squeeze out (preclude) any ATV announcement this week.
I'm thinking maybe no press releases tomorrow because the timings of the Experience events are New York, London and Shanghai at 9 a.m. EST / 2 p.m. GMT / 6 a.m. PST. I assume Apple releases its press releases from Cupertino and if the Experience events are kicking off at 6 a.m. PST time I'm not sure that gives APple a window on Wednesday morning to do any product announcement releases that day so maybe the timing for this week is...
Monday - iPhone and iPad announcements already seen.
Tuesday - All the MacBook stuff, the rest of the M5s and the new A-Series one and maybe Studio displays.
Wednesday - No more announcements, that day dedicated to the experience events to give press etc hands-on looks at what was announced over the previous 2 days.
Oh well. Basically I have no idea but if I had to place a bet I think I'd be putting my money on no updated ATV (or updated HPM) this week.