You know, I don't know why everyone is being so harsh on the OP. It's not like he's asking how to trick Apple into giving him a free one. Far as I can tell he has every plan of being honest with Apple but just wanted to know what the chances are Apple would be really nice to him.
Also, I think his point with the car is pretty much pointing at the people who are griping at him that he was stupid not to get insurance (his point being for him the iPad is little enough cost it's not worth it, he can handle the cost if something went wrong). I personally find it offensive that people are calling him stupid for not getting insurance. Some one like me, yeah, maybe (I can't afford another iPad if mine breaks), insurance probably is a good idea (depending on what the insurance is, sometimes it still isn't worth the risk). But if it's not a huge drop in the bucket I'd say maybe you're better off just taking your chances. It all comes down to what you can afford and risk/cost analysis (after all, even for me depending on how much the insurance is and how much they'd cover if something happens, insurance may not be a good deal).
I had an insurance company try to tell us my car couldn't be worth 6k because we didn't get collision on it. Some of you guys sound like that insurance company (their client was who hit us and whether I got collision is none of their business cause my car was being covered under their client's liability insurance as their client was at fault). And trust me, they were just trying to get out of paying as cheaply as possible.