It's already $279 in Canada. With 2 to 2.5X more RAM than the currently offered box expected on the new one, it's a fair guess that the price will go up during a RAM shortage crisis, pushing the base model beyond $300.
Non USA prices have all kinds of currency exchange noise in them. And Canadian prices was not the reference point I was using. '$' on a USA based site usually means USA dollars.
The base model is already up 54% ( 129 -> 199 is a 54% increase). The Ethernet version went up 67% ( so additional SSD moving up more than just moving up RAM. )
If these are somewhat A19 and A19Pro models could not sell in an iPhone Pro then although the cost of a A19 die is more than a A15 die. That is probably somewhat of a wash at the moment and gets cheaper as Apple TV goes into comatose update mode for another 2-3 years.
If the RAM was 20% (which is probably high but a conservative even number) of the original price then 60% ( RAM up 3x ) of original price is $ 77.4. That is basically in the zone of this increase $70. Apple can eat some profit margin ( 0.6% ) and still make money. Apple's profit margin on NAND was already huge. They could either take away free space ( dump 4-6GB into LLM model space and just leave less.) or incrementally update. if shifted from 5%->10% for NAND it is another $13 ; not going to be huge jump even if somewhat unnecessarily make it.
The large storage model already has a larger increase. The RAM isn't going up if that one sticks with A19. And already have a higher increase to cover the NAND costs.
If you keep the case the same there there is really no increase costs there. The costs should stay mostly flat there because not making changes (and adding costs).
Apple should be eating some margin here, because the Apple TV as a product is not all that robustly healthy. It is
NOT a dominate device in it competitive field in terms of unit numbers sold. Cranking the price even higher only makes it even more
weaker competitively for the core function. That is all the more worse in countries where the currency exchange is bad and is struggling even more.
Apple TV is a relatively low volume product so lower margins on it won't show up significantly in Apple's overall balance sheets. [ NOTE; if iPhone Pro only increases by $100-150 then no way the AppleTV is going up a larger amount. ]
P.S. Apple will continue to sell the iPhone 17 for years. So the RAM of the A19 and its RAM is still on a very high volume purchase contract that probably has some limits on the prices increase, because very large bulk sales.
[ iPhone 17 isn't even superceded now .. and even after Spring 'replacement' will be sold as the n-1 and n-2 iPhone for long time. ]