There will be an iPad air3.
Just not this fall.
Apple will release a new mini and the iPad plus/pro this fall.
iPad Air 3 will follow in April/may 2016, together with the new Apple watch and perhaps a new Apple TV ( would love it if they release a new Apple TV this fall, though). the iPad Air 2 was released too soon(or iOS 9 too late). iOS 9 makes full use of the power of the iPad Air 2.
iPad pro will be marketed as new " king of the hill" . By releasing a iPad Air 3, that is just as powerfull , consumer interest will shift.
If you want the latest and greatest iPad pro will be it for at least 6 months.
I have to disagree, I think iPad Pro will be more of a separate branch in the product lineup. iPad Air and mini will still be aimed at consumers, iPad Pro will be aimed more toward content creators, businesses, etc.
In other words, the 9.7 inch iPad will remain the flagship in my opinion, and that sort of has to release before the holidays. If any iPad is getting released in April/May of 2016, it's the iPad Pro, or the iPad mini.
My thoughts are that all iPads will be released together, and it will remain that way.
iPad Air 3 will bring the following, I think. A9X chip with more efficient architecture, 2GB of new DDR3 RAM, improved GPU, improved CPU (same amount of cores) clocked at 1.6GHz. Maybe it could be the first mobile CPU by Apple with 4 cores, but I think 3 will be the new standard for many years to come.
There could be a design refresh, more similarities to the iPhone 6, increased thickness to house a larger battery and get rid of speaker vibration/distortion issues. Force Touch (which includes haptic feedback) would be an awesome edition, but I think Apple might repeat history and bring new technology that came with the iPhone to the iPad after. The camera might be improved, allowing 60FPS video, 240FPS slo-mo, etc. There were rumors the iPad Air 3 would move to an @3x resolution, but I don't think they will do that since the iPad Pro will have that based on leaks.
I am currently waiting for the iPad Air 3. Now, if the iPad Air 3 comes out and it is essentially an iPad mini 3, I will get a DIRT CHEAP refurbished iPad Air 2. The 32GB iPad Air, WiFi only is $389.99 refurbished. I'm assuming the iPad Air 2, 64GB, WiFi only would be the same price. So that would be an absolute steal if the iPad Air 3 is a non-upgrade, like the iPad mini 3.
And OP, I also saw that you have an issue with refurbished products? With Apple, that makes no sense. The battery and the housing is replaced. There is extensive testing on the refurbished device, and you get the full warranty like a new product. Pretty much the ONLY thing that is different, is the box the device comes in. The downside to refurbished Apple products is that it isn't available for the newest model until months after the initial release.