As has been said by EVERYONE, dumbphones are on their way out and Nokia has lead the way for a long time here. I used to buy nothing but Nokia because the body of the ones I liked were super-hard plastic and I could drop it without any breakage (I was careless and a cell phone was "just a phone")... so I would always bring in my Nokia phone and ask for the next version up with the same impenetrable body style. I know I was not alone.
Now -- with dumbphones on their way out and these owners wanting to move on, I think that brand loyalty will help them tremendously. Especially older people who would almost be afraid to get something else. Think about this: if you are used to just having a cell phone and doing anything but dialing the phone gives you hives, wouldn't your first smartphone purchase be just a terrifying experience? Wouldn't you say "I'm going to stick with the brand that I've trusted up until now?" I bet yes. I think that Nokia is in a good place here. They're getting a good OS (I hear) with the Ecosystem being built and updated everyday.
Microsoft is really the winner here because they're riding piggyback on top of a true dominator in the phone field.
The problem with old-timers is that they tend to NOT trade up even when they're due a new phone. They have a phone that they're used to, it works, they understand how to use 15% of it and that makes them happy. They're screwing this whole thing up for everyone. They need to just re-up on time, get their new Nokia SlamJam5000 and keep the market rolling. Because they don't and everyone else is begging their carrier to re-up early in order to get the latest, it skews everything.
I think as people (old and young alike) get smartphones that easier to use, most people are going to want to get a little something more for their money. It used to be that when you got a new phone, you had to learn a completely new OS. Now, when it becomes common knowledge that you can trade up on your phone and still be very familiar with then new phone's workings, older people will be more likely to go ahead and get their subsidized phone.
Nokia will in a great position if they can make a slick FREE phone. Perhaps they're "only" paid $200-400 for the phone, it's more than they're getting from the carrier for the dumbphones they've made up until now. Also, there are millions and millions of people who pride themselves with the fact that they're smarter than everyone else by only getting the free models. "Why would I pay good money to get phone A when phone B is Free. All I want to do is make calls anyway?" Nokia's new slogan must be "FREE IS KEY" because their biggest customer is going to be their old market.
(Tongue-in-cheek)
I hate to say this, but the REAL race for the Smartphone space won't be until all the old customers ... um... how to put this delicately... Die. (I'd say from 50 on, so we're talking a lot of years. Then it's going to get interesting. It's not until it's just the people that really love cell phones (and want to re-up properly and get their new cell phone on time), will you be selling a ton of freaking phones! I stayed off this group by only 5 years so... whew!
(/Tongue-in-cheek)
------------------------------------------
why in the world is this on a "Mac Rumors" website? who cares?????
Why in the world did you read this thread and bother with commenting if you didn't care?????? When I read the newspaper, I don't get upset with the New York Times that there's news in Page 6 that I don't care about -- I just turn the page and move on.
