In addition, all of these iPad buyers will have to BUY every bit of content that they could get for free via ad-based sites like hulu.com.
I'm sure this is what Flash advocate hope for, but it doesn't seem likely at all.
I don't believe Apple is going to get away with just saying html5 and h.264 is the answer, when it's multiple years off from providing widescale usage and integration into the web.
Don't expect some great uprising from iPad buyers demanding Flash. Video delivery is really the only key here. Most people don't need Flash for anything else. You wouldn't be seeing these larger sites moving to something more iPad-friendly if they weren't betting on the success of Apple.