Predicting Apple Watch Fail Thread

[APlotdevice]

So you can look at your wrist, but the question then becomes do people still pull out their phone anyway because it's faster to type out a text when Siri gets it wrong? Do you pull out your phone to check a map because it isn't detailed enough on your watch? Do you pull out your phone to view a web link or picture or video someone sent you, because the watch screen is too small? How useful is the Watch, really, if people still pull out their phones most of the time, as I suspect they will?

Let me tell you, as someone who owns smart watch already, I don't pull out my phone nearly as much as I used to. Not every message or notification requires an immediate response... In my experience most of them don't in fact.

And the mapping part seems to be more for turn by turn than anything else, for which the screen size should be sufficient.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

HA! Pretty much the exact same comments "its a gimmick", "its too expensive", "its fugly".....

People who don't study history are doomed to repeat it.

Looks like they're doomed to repeat it even if they study history, as we've seen time and time again with the iPhone, iPad, etc.

 

[Lachhh]

Steve Ballmer approves of this thread.

 

[fewlio]

Yeah, there probably hasn't been a trend for women to wear big watches... just those little dainty ones. Image

Image

so true! all the women i see out and about look exactly like ur cherry picked pics!! /end of argument

 

[Acorn]

It looks like apple PR has done its job convincing people how revolutionary this product is. I still think its fugly and useless. will they sell millions? probably. Will one of those millions be my purchase? No.

As far as succeeding just because other apple products have, again PR has done its job convincing people of the strength of the brand.

 

[Rogifan]

Check out some of the comments in this thread about the iPad announcement.

https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/854974/

They'd fit right in with some of the comments on Watch.

 

[Jimmy James]

Well keep this in mind, I am not saying the Apple Watch will fail, it is just being introduced into a market that already exists... and has for a while.

Blackberry didn't exist before iPhone. And Apple practically built palm and Windows Mobile single handedly.

 

[Frankied22]

I think the Apple Watch will be a massive hit and will sell millions. However, I am not that interested. I think this first gen version looks ugly and the UX looks odd. Apple also really hasn't given people good reasons to have it. At this point in my life I am not interested in being bombarded with notifications from my iPhone that is in my pocket on my wrist. At some point it's just silly. I'll just pull out my phone.

 

[Superluigi6]

If they make a version that doesn't require an iPhone, then it's going to do well.

 

[swedefish]

If they make a version that doesn't require an iPhone, then it's going to do well.

You do realise that hundreds of millions of people carry iPhones in their pockets already? They will hardly be worried that they need to continue carrying with them the phone they already carry with them everywhere they go in order to make the most of the Apple Watch...

 

[Ccrew]

Let me tell you, as someone who owns smart watch already, I don't pull out my phone nearly as much as I used to. Not every message or notification requires an immediate response... In my experience most of them don't in fact.

Agreed, but unless Apple solves the other fail of the current gen watches out there (And I own a Gear 2) it'll be a potentially highly visible crash and burn.

And that "fail" is the huge dependence on the phone to offload tasks to from the watch. A phone app that requires GPS/location information for example you can almost watch the battery life of the phone fall off a cliff due to the high rate of sampling. So while it's good for text and notifications it's still not all that and a box of cracker jack, and Samsung has had a couple years and iterations to get it right.

----------

You do realise that hundreds of millions of people carry iPhones in their pockets already? They will hardly be worried that they need to continue carrying with them the phone they already carry with them everywhere they go in order to make the most of the Apple Watch...

But in the grand scheme of things he's right. While there are millions of iPhones, all can't run IOS8, and they're only at last count 15% of the phones sold

http://bgr.com/2014/07/31/android-vs-ios-vs-windows-phone-vs-blackberry/

 

[swedefish]

But in the grand scheme of things he's right. While there are millions of iPhones, all can't run IOS8, and they're only at last count 15% of the phones sold

http://bgr.com/2014/07/31/android-vs-ios-vs-windows-phone-vs-blackberry/

Please, this market share crap means nothing. Apple already rakes in the lion's share of the profit despite their lower market share. The majority of Android sales are cheap phones sold to people who cannot afford better, i.e. not prospective Apple Watch consumers in the first place.

 

[Ccrew]

Please, this market share crap means nothing. Apple already rakes in the lion's share of the profit despite their lower market share. The majority of Android sales are cheap phones sold to people who cannot afford better, i.e. not prospective Apple Watch consumers in the first place.

Profit is not the differentiator for the sake of this argument. If competitors sell 85 Android phones and Apple sells 15 it's still a 15% market of potential Apple Watch buyers to potential Android watch buyers. And that has ZERO with profit made off a single phone. It all comes down at that point to how many of those users you can convert to watch sales.

And the paupers buying HTC's, LG's and Samsung's I'm sure enjoy your elitist attitude that they couldn't afford better. Especially when many sold for the same under subsidized plans.

 

[swedefish]

Profit is not the differentiator for the sake of this argument. If competitors sell 85 Android phones and Apple sells 15 it's still a 15% market of potential Apple Watch buyers to potential Android watch buyers. And that has ZERO with profit made off a single phone. It all comes down at that point to how many of those users you can convert to watch sales.

And the paupers buying HTC's, LG's and Samsung's I'm sure enjoy your elitist attitude that they couldn't afford better. Especially when many sold for the same under subsidized plans.

Exactly, and how many low-budget Android buyers would that be? Of course profit, or rather the Apple user clientele, is the differentiator. Apple has hundreds of millions of users who love their iPhones, who spend time on their iPhones, who spend money on their iPhones. This is a fact. Those 15% generate ~70% of smartphone profits. Catering to them by further enhancing their iPhone experience makes perfect sense.

 

[Ccrew]

Exactly, and how many low-budget Android buyers would that be? Of course profit, or rather the Apple user clientele, is the differentiator. Apple has hundreds of millions of users who love their iPhones, who spend time on their iPhones, who spend money on their iPhones. This is a fact. Those 15% generate ~70% of smartphone profits. Catering to them by further enhancing their iPhone experience makes perfect sense.

Reality? They're not ALL low budget Android buyers. I'm a prime example of that and I'm certainly not the only one here. The conversion rate of Apple Watch buyers would have to exceed 5:1 of sales numbers. Apple's done nothing to make a compelling case for that to occur. You're harping profits and in doing so are just harping the Apple mantra as to why they turn a profit. . If there were no profits in play on either side it's still about potential marketshare which is what's zipping right over your head.

You keep dragging profit into a potential sales marketshare discussion. It's like bringing a tricycle to a drag race.

 

[swedefish]

Reality? They're not ALL low budget Android buyers. I'm a prime example of that and I'm certainly not the only one here. The conversion rate of Apple Watch buyers would have to exceed 5:1 of sales numbers. Apple's done nothing to make a compelling case for that to occur. You're harping profits and in doing so are just harping the Apple mantra as to why they turn a profit. . If there were no profits in play on either side it's still about potential marketshare which is what's zipping right over your head.

You keep dragging profit into a sales marketshare discussion. It's like bringing a tricycle to a drag race.

'If there were no profits in play' is a pointless premise, because there are. Apple clearly does not care about marketshare, but about profit. If Apple cared about marketshare, they would not release a watch starting in the 300s (USD). That is my point. If the Apple watch fails, it will not be because non-iPhone users did not buy it (clearly Apple aren't too concerned about their business or they would have designed it differently), but because the enormous iPhone user base rejected it.

 

[Ccrew]

'If there were no profits in play' is a pointless premise, because there are. Apple clearly does not care about marketshare, but about profit. If Apple cared about marketshare, they would not release a watch starting in the 300s (USD). That is my point. If the Apple watch fails, it will not be because non-iPhone users did not buy it (clearly Apple aren't too concerned about their business or they would have designed it differently), but because the enormous iPhone user base rejected it.

Chartreuse. That's my response. It has as much intelligence attached to it as yours. I'm done. Have a nice day.

 

[cammyg123]

Give it time. The dang thing hasn't even released yet, so who knows what will happen with it. Jeez.

 

[swedefish]

Chartreuse. That's my response. It has as much intelligence attached to it as yours. I'm done. Have a nice day.

How nice, an intelligence insult because you cannot use your fandroid market share stats to argue with me. Oh, and I'm having a wonderful day thank you.

 

[Ccrew]

How nice, an intelligence insult because you cannot use your fandroid market share stats to argue with me. Oh, and I'm having a wonderful day thank you.

LOL. Phandroid. I own more Apple gear that that sad list in your sig Cool try Bro..

That sound you just heard was your sphincter clenching on your neck.

 

[swedefish]

LOL. Phandroid. I own more Apple gear that that sad list in your sig Cool try Bro..

That sound you just heard was your sphincter clenching on your neck.

What is with the insults, bro? I am merely a casual user with no delusions of grandeur.

The question is, what was your point? Since you cannot argue it in a civil manner, I suppose it was not particularly cogent.

 

[kupkakez]

Putting my marker down for future reference.

It's too clunky. Requires iPhone. Doesn't do anything that a pedometer/fitband can do. And women won't wear this brick on their wrists. They simply won't.

Well I'm a woman and I love wearing my "brick" of a Michael Kors watch...

 

[impaler]

I refuse to put down a marker prior to a product release. However, I will say, I think they will sell lots of these buggers, especially the sport and standard versions, early on. What remains to be seen by me, and what will define for me whether it's a success or not, will be whether people keep them on. I've purchased a MetaWatch, Pebble, Cuckoo, and Martian watch. None of them, I've left on my wrist. Worried about Bluetooth draining my battery, and don't need that in my face all the time. Can't see wearing a watch in my house. We'll see. I'll probably get one, and mess with it. But it will take a huge effort and convincing of its real value (my phone can do most of what it can) before I commit to wearing it every day. I will look around and see if others are wearing them a year, two years, from now. All my others sit in a drawer after the novelty wore off.

 

[cube]

Watching the touchscreen fiddling at the keynote stressed me out just imagining doing it.

 

[Velin]

Put my marker down in 2014. As reported today, sales cratering.

Laying my next marker: it's over for this product. Finished.

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