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Project Alaska: Apple's Second-Generation Vision Pro Headset

chucker23n1 said:
Vision Pro may not get cheaper, but the Vision line-up will absolutely get a cheaper entry level offering.

Why?

Because $3,499 is too much to build a sizeable user base, which means there won't be enough of a market for a healthy app ecosystem.
Click to expand...
To build a sizeable user base for a healthy app ecosystem, this will need to get down to $999. That'll take awhile.
 
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smulji said:
To build a sizeable user base for a healthy app ecosystem, this will need to get down to $999. That'll take awhile.
Click to expand...

Yeah, could be.

I can see Apple shooting for price points similar to MacBooks. The Pro eventually settles for about $2,000 through $3,000. And then the Air or SE starts at $1,499 at first, but eventually goes down to make $1,199.

I can not see them sticking to a line-up that starts at $3,499. This is an early-adopter price. Probably not even so much for profit reasons but also because they won't be able to ramp up production on these components any time soon.
 
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chucker23n1 said:
Vision Pro may not get cheaper, but the Vision line-up will absolutely get a cheaper entry level offering.

Why?

Because $3,499 is too much to build a sizeable user base, which means there won't be enough of a market for a healthy app ecosystem.
Click to expand...

If they can’t identify anything to do with it that justifies the ridiculous look and isolating experience (amongst other issues) then they won’t be selling many of them at any price. The device has a set of inherent barriers to adoption that no other Apple product has ever faced. They need a deeply compelling reason to use VP in order to just get back to the baseline, let alone build any kind of buzz or new markets for it.
 
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I'm old enough to remember when Sony's first cd player came out in the early 80s. Everyone thought it was a music game changer. The price was around $1500 dollars, way out of most peoples budget. Just like then, I'm going to wait a few years for the tech pricing to come down.
 
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nimitz9 said:
I'm old enough to remember when Sony's first cd player came out in the early 80s. Everyone thought it was a music game changer. The price was around $1500 dollars, way out of most peoples budget. Just like then, I'm going to wait a few years for the tech pricing to come down.
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CD is a little different though. It was a standard that was adopted by the entire industry. CD players became a commodity. This won’t happen with Vision Pro. It isn’t intended to be an industry standard. It isn’t even intended to be as open as a Macintosh. It runs a version of iOS, meaning it’s inside Apple’s walled garden. If Sony had kept CD as a proprietary technology that they didn’t license to anyone it would have died long ago.
 
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Surf Monkey said:
CD is a little different though. It was a standard that was adopted by the entire industry. CD players became a commodity. This won’t happen with Vision Pro. It isn’t intended to be an industry standard. It isn’t even intended to be as open as a Macintosh. It runs a version of iOS, meaning it’s inside Apple’s walled garden. If Sony had kept CD as a proprietary technology that they didn’t license to anyone it would have died long ago.
Click to expand...

The question isn't whether Vision Pro in particular takes off. It's whether the whole concept of mixed-reality headsets at home (or work) ever become less of a niche.
 
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chucker23n1 said:
The question isn't whether Vision Pro in particular takes off. It's whether the whole concept of mixed-reality headsets at home (or work) ever become less of a niche.
Click to expand...

In that context? I seriously doubt that will ever be the case. Computational power has to go somewhere. It can’t be miniaturized beyond a certain point. Double goes for batteries which can’t really be miniaturized at all. So the prospect of a device that’s non-intrusive and as common looking as eyeglasses is extremely slim.
 
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squirrelist said:
Apple has a history of charging a lot for the first gen of a product line and then dropping it with a later revision. The first MacBook Air was $1,799 starting. Within two years it dropped to $999. iPhone was $599 (which dropped to $399 a couple of months later) but the iPhone 3G started at $199 (note that this doesn't compare with modern phone pricing which uses loans instead of carrier subsidies). The first Apple Watch (aka Series 0) had a starting point of $349 and the Series 1 dropped to $269. The original Apple TV was $299 and the second-gen was $99.
Click to expand...

I'll hope right with you and everyone else, but there's a bit of key info missing from these many examples:
  • MBair Gen 1 to Gen 2 discount involved cutting screen size, battery life, etc. Cutting features & benefits is a common way for Apple to roll out a cheaper-but-new version of a product. We see that often.
  • iPhone launched as an iPod-like outright sale. Once fan purchases starting waning, they switched to the carrier subsidy model. Apple still got just as much as they wanted but this other party- AT&T- paid some of it... and then we consumers paid MORE because AT&T wanted payback for their subsidy and then some (including exclusivity lock in at only AT&T service pricing).
  • Apple Watch Series 1 was discounted to $269 after the launch of Gen 2, which debuted at $369. So when Vpro gen 1 is the "old" model, it probably will be available for less cost. That's normal for Apple: sell older tech for less price than when it was "latest & greatest." See examples of this in about everything from Apple. You just need to find the desire to buy the "old" tech version instead of the new tech version.
  • Original AppleTV had on-board storage to which we could sync our media and additional jacks to make it more compatible with TVs available at the time. It was even user upgradable, where storage could be upped to as much as 2TB for media synching. Gen 2 stripped out the sync-able storage and dumped the other useful jacks.
This idea of "cheaper" next gen sounds great. Again, I'll hope right with everyone else. But the actual history of Apple is to absorb cost savings into ever-expanding margin. Remember how some of us spun this goodie: "With Apple going silicon and no longer having to pay the Intel premium, they can pass through the savings in cheaper Macs." While it is certainly possible Apple could develop Vpro gen 2 at less cost, whether that passes through to us consumers seems iffy based on history like that. Margin expansion vs. discount for consumers who seem readily willing to pay ANY price for ANYTHING that Apple offers: which do you think AAPL would choose?

So how could Apple actually deliver a cheaper Vpro:
  1. Like various Apple products, sell the "old technology" (one-to-three year old) model for less (like the Watch example, old iPhones, old iPads, etc)
  2. Get someone else to pay Apple for us in a subsidy like the iPhone example, but it's hard to imagine which entity would do that, unless Vpro can provide a virtual iPhone option so that cellular service players can apply the same phone subsidies to this virtual iPhone, but then get fully paid and then some in cellular service fees and/or penalties if the cell plan is terminated early. If the average subsidy now is- say- $1,000 for iPhones, $3499 - $1K = $2499 Vpro with virtual iPhone and 2-3 year cell service contract.
  3. Remove/Reduce features (like the MBair and AppleTV generational examples). What would this be? Slower (old) processor? Lower resolution? Less battery? Less cameras? (basically see the playbook for how Apple Inc. shaves costs now).
Those imagining this lower-priced Vpro gen 2 or so: which one of those 3 do you want? I can't think of a SINGLE example where new generations of Apple hardware came with steep discounts vs. the prior generation without 1+ of those 3 is in play.

I'm not a Vpro pessimist at all. I lean pretty positive on the potential of it. I see many very appealing uses for this device and just one, simple one is enough to make it worth its price to me. But I just don't see a way for this delusion about "cheaper" to arrive without 1+ of those 3 applying.

To scratch the affordability itch, my guess is Apple will play the payment game: special financing for 36 months with the 3% folded in so that the pitch can be "only $99/month." Those who revolve around monthly payments will likely freak that they can take one home for "only $99."

OR leave the 3% rebate in place and make the downpayment enough to yield the $99/month payment. "Only $XXX today and then only $99 month to own & enjoy our wonder product starting today. Order now!" This is commonplace with car lease ads, showing an appealing monthly payment while the small print shows the fat amount due up front.

To hit the $99 payment, Apple would NOT need a fat upfront amount, so the Vpro variant could be more like certain iPhone ads where we were pitched to get the new iPhone for $49 to $2XX with 2-year commitment to the carrier paying the subsidy.

iPhoneDP2.jpg

For example, imagine the 4S ad for Vpro. About $3700 with some states high sales tax - $149 Down = $3551/36 months = about $99/month. "Buy now! We think you'll love it"

"...Or apply your 3% rebate now, pay NOTHING for Vpro today, and then only $99/month." Get the new Vpro for FREE* today!!!

*exactly like "free" new iPhone offers.
 
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Like I mentioned in a previous thread, this will be replacing most of my desk computing at home. But I won't be getting one until 2027.
 
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JordanCautious said:
But if they're really planning to have the 2nd gen price of the AVP to be lower than the 1st gen price...wouldnt that mean that the only people who should buy the first gen are early adopters who want to be the first to a new ecosystem?

Sure, it's possible the second generation could be delayed past 2026 in the coming years, but if they take the learnings from whatever goes wrong on release with the 1st gen and use it to improve the 2nd gen that's going to be cheaper...
Click to expand...
If no one buys the 1st-gen, there won't be a 2nd-gen.
 
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Some good stuff here. The semi-automatic ipd adjustment is a great idea for cost and weight. System could analyze eyes and direct user to move a wheel to a specified point. Also good to eschew the audio pods by default. There’s a patent document out of Hong Kong that shows what this looks like. AirPods Pro are pretty much made for the device and offer the ability to use around others. I wonder if ULLA is what they’re calling the new audio protocol. Better than the name Bluetooth, but much to be desired.
 
chucker23n1 said:
Vision Pro may not get cheaper, but the Vision line-up will absolutely get a cheaper entry level offering.

Why?

Because $3,499 is too much to build a sizeable user base, which means there won't be enough of a market for a healthy app ecosystem.
Click to expand...
Apple can subsidise the app development to build up a healthy App Library to attract more devs to jump on the platform.
 
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