Project Alaska: Apple's Second-Generation Vision Pro Headset

[jamesnajera]

Do we know if V1 supports ray tracing (M3 based)

 

[chucker23n1]

Apple has had a heathy ecosystem of $2000 to $4000 MBP buyers for decades.

That's not its own ecosystem. The Mac ecosystem works because

• there are also $999 MacBook Airs and $599 Mac minis, running the same software, and
• a lot of software runs targets the Web, not the Mac

The $2300 to $2500 models seemingly the most popular.

The most popular Mac by a long shot is the MacBook Air. The second-most popular Mac was the $1,299 Pro. Not the $2,500 models.

That’s not saying they won’t come out with a more affordable “non Pro” or “SE” model at some point.

They have to. Everything else would doom the platform.

The only question is how soon they can decontent some of it and drive down component costs.

 

[ThatGuyInLa]

I'll hope right with you and everyone else, but there's a bit of key info missing from these many examples:

• MBair Gen 1 to Gen 2 discount involved cutting screen size, battery life, etc. Cutting features & benefits is a common way for Apple to roll out a cheaper-but-new version of a product. We see that often.
• iPhone launched as an iPod-like outright sale. Once fan purchases starting waning, they switched to the carrier subsidy model. Apple still got just as much as they wanted but this other party- AT&T- paid some of it... and then we consumers paid MORE because AT&T wanted payback for their subsidy and then some (including exclusivity lock in at only AT&T service pricing).
• Apple Watch Series 1 was discounted to $269 after the launch of Gen 2, which debuted at $369. So when Vpro gen 1 is the "old" model, it probably will be available for less cost. That's normal for Apple: sell older tech for less price than when it was "latest & greatest." See examples of this in about everything from Apple. You just need to find the desire to buy the "old" tech version instead of the new tech version.
• Original AppleTV had on-board storage to which we could sync our media and additional jacks to make it more compatible with TVs available at the time. It was even user upgradable, where storage could be upped to as much as 2TB for media synching. Gen 2 stripped out the sync-able storage and dumped the other useful jacks.

This idea of "cheaper" next gen sounds great. Again, I'll hope right with everyone else. But the actual history of Apple is to absorb cost savings into ever-expanding margin. Remember how some of us spun this goodie: "With Apple going silicon and no longer having to pay the Intel premium, they can pass through the savings in cheaper Macs." While it is certainly possible Apple could develop Vpro gen 2 at less cost, whether that passes through to us consumers seems iffy based on history like that. Margin expansion vs. discount for consumers who seem readily willing to pay ANY price for ANYTHING that Apple offers: which do you think AAPL would choose?

So how could Apple actually deliver a cheaper Vpro:

1. Like various Apple products, sell the "old technology" (one-to-three year old) model for less (like the Watch example, old iPhones, old iPads, etc)
2. Get someone else to pay Apple for us in a subsidy like the iPhone example, but it's hard to imagine which entity would do that, unless Vpro can provide a virtual iPhone option so that cellular service players can apply the same phone subsidies to this virtual iPhone, but then get fully paid and then some in cellular service fees and/or penalties if the cell plan is terminated early. If the average subsidy now is- say- $1,000 for iPhones, $3499 - $1K = $2499 Vpro with virtual iPhone and 2/3 year cell service contract.
3. Remove/Reduce features (like the MBair and AppleTV generational examples). What would this be? Slower (old) processor? Lower resolution? Less battery? Less cameras? (basically see the playbook for how Apple Inc. shaves costs now).

Those imagining this lower-priced Vpro gen 2 or so, which one do you want? I can't think of a SINGLE example where new generations of Apple hardware came with steep discounts vs. the prior generation without 1+ of those 3 is in play.

I'm not a Vpro pessimist at all. I lean pretty positive on the potential of it. I see many very appealing uses for this device and just one, simple one is enough to make it worth its price to me. But I just don't see a way for this delusion about "cheaper" to arrive without 1+ of those 3 applying.

To scratch the affordability itch, my guess is Apple will play the payment game: special financing for 36 months with the 3% folded in so that the pitch can be "only $99/month." Those who revolve around monthly payments will likely freak that they can take one home for "only $99."

OR leave the 3% rebate in place and make the downpayment enough to yield the $99/month payment. "Only $XXX today and then only $99 month to own & enjoy our wonder product starting today. Order now!" This is commonplace with car lease ads, showing an appealing monthly payment while the small print shows the fat amount due up front.

To hit the $99 payment, Apple would NOT need a fat upfront amount, so the Vpro variant could be more like certain iPhone ads where we were pitched to get the new iPhone for $49 to $2XX with 2-year commitment to the carrier paying the subsidy.

View attachment 2310628​

For example, imagine the 4S ad for Vpro. About $3700 with some states high sales tax - $149 Down = $3551/36 months = about $99/month. "Buy now! We think you'll love it"

You’ve done a much better breakdown and better written version of what I was trying to say in my earlier post. Trying to show everyone actual Apple history for this sort of thing. I find it funny so many think, “naaah, it’ll be $700 to $1000” in the next year or so.

 

[tomtad]

Apple has had a heathy ecosystem of $2000 to $4000 MBP buyers for decades. The $2300 to $2500 models seemingly the most popular. Granted Apple’s computer line up does numbers drastically lower than phone. Still, that’s what Apple and its users seem willing to bear. Again, as far as a Pro Vision. Expect it to be around $3000 for quite some time. That’s not saying they won’t come out with a more affordable “non Pro” or “SE” model at some point.

Yes but that is a computer. People who are spending $3000 on a computer are not going to give it up and just use a Vision Pro.

The $3000+ Vision Pro will be in addition to the $3000+ MacBook Pro and there in lies the problem.

 

[ThatGuyInLa]

This is more a use case for one person but take from it what you will. Use it to theorize one possible thinking point from Apple on what is a success.

I bought a PS5, VR2, and GT7 as it was the best experience I’ve ever had for VR racing. Hands down the best. I’m not referring to “most realistic racing sim” but most enjoyable and immersive experience. It’s about all I use it for.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

Only Apple could sell a $3500 paper weight. My friends before you plop this much money down give the oculus a go. If you don’t like that you certainly won’t like apples take

My friends, before you plop $1000 or more down for iPhone, give an Android at 1/3rd the price a go. If you don’t like that…

My friends, before you plop $X00 down for iPad, give a $100 Fire Tablet a go. If you don’t like that…

My friends, before you plop $X00 for a Watch, give a $60 Fitbit a go. If you don't like that...

My friends, before you plop down $1000+ for a Mac, give a $150 Chromebook a go. If you don’t like that…

If you don’t like those, you certainly won’t like Apples take.

“Think different”

 

[Chinch07]

Only Apple could sell a $3500 paper weight. My friends before you plop this much money down give the oculus a go. If you don’t like that you certainly won’t like apples take

Everyone who tried the Vision Pro has said that it’s much better and capable than the Meta Quest. They also say they’re really in 2 different product categories.

So if that’s the case, why would trying a more budget friendly, potentially worse product be a good indication of the experience you’ll receive from the supposed better product?

It’s like saying, “if you don’t like a Mitsubishi you certainly won’t like a Porsche.”

 

[seek3r]

iPhone got cheaper???? Have you seen the prices in the current store?

Bear in mind that 1) inflation means $399 in 2007 is about $600 today and 2) the lineup is more complicated today. the SE starts at $429, way cheaper than $399 in ‘07 and the 13 starts $600

 

[1291030]

That was an odd statement regardless. Second-generation products usually don’t change their design drastically. Striking resemblance in this context is an oxymoron.

Sorry to be pedantic, and dont read this as a negative comment. But, I just wanted to share, that to my knowledge(albeit im not a native English speaker) an oxymoron is when contradictory terms are being combined. Like, for example, "wireless cable" would be an oxymoron.

It feels like you are saying it's implied that a second generation productions don't change their design, making it redundant to state that the design of a second generation product is the same. Which, I suppose, to my dull non-english-native brain, makes it closer to a tautology than an oxymoron?

 

[Surf Monkey]

My friends, before you plop $1000 or more down for iPhone, give an Android at 1/3rd the price a go. If you don’t like that…

My friends, before you plop $X00 down for iPad, give a $100 Fire Tablet a go. If you don’t like that…

My friends, before you plop $X00 for a Watch, give a $60 Fitbit a go. If you don't like that...

My friends, before you plop down $1000+ for a Mac, give a $150 Chromebook a go. If you don’t like that…

If you don’t like those, you certainly won’t like Apples take.

“Think different”

No, it’s more like this:

If you have NEVER driven a car before maybe don’t start out with a Ferrari. It might be a better idea to try a Toyota first and see whether driving is for you at all. If it is, then consider the most expensive car on the market.

 

[Born Again]

My friends, before you plop $1000 or more down for iPhone, give an Android at 1/3rd the price a go. If you don’t like that…

My friends, before you plop $X00 down for iPad, give a $100 Fire Tablet a go. If you don’t like that…

My friends, before you plop $X00 for a Watch, give a $60 Fitbit a go. If you don't like that...

My friends, before you plop down $1000+ for a Mac, give a $150 Chromebook a go. If you don’t like that…

If you don’t like those, you certainly won’t like Apples take.

“Think different”

you missed the point. VR/AR is niche. lol

 

[Born Again]

Everyone who tried the Vision Pro has said that it’s much better and capable than the Meta Quest. They also say they’re really in 2 different product categories.

So if that’s the case, why would trying a more budget friendly, potentially worse product be a good indication of the experience you’ll receive from the supposed better product?

It’s like saying, “if you don’t like a Mitsubishi you certainly won’t like a Porsche.”

exactly my point. VR/AR isn't for everyone. Just you wait until you have people have regrets purchasing the beta product.

 

[MrMojo1]

Tech moves so quickly today that even Apple's 1st Gen A/R/VR headset will be almost obsolete when it's released, if the rumours are true about the 2nd Gen being worked on now.
What's the point then of the 1st Gen except the 'Wow' factor and to recoup some money?

 

[MrDerby01]

How does Apple call this the 2nd Gen? Seriously question. I am asking from the stand point of the 1st gen usage and testing. Should Apple have waited a bit before moving on? Also does anyone know how this stands up to "Quest 3" for example? Super excited to purchase this! Waiting to see more software and videos come out.

Quest 3 is sorta heavy upfront due to the default straps and also the battery life is not so good. Other than that... It's really kewl to be in the VR environments.

 

[AsarTheGod]

Did they get rid of the cable? Or are you still tethered like a prisoner?

 

[victorvictoria]

We won't know if this is true until late 2025 or 2026.

I can wait. I've lived my entire life without it.

 

[cupcakes2000]

Apple can't even come up with a "vaporware"dreamed up use case.

There are several usecase that Apple suggests actually. Whether they’re for you or not who knows. It’s weird to have such a negative opinion on the product. It’s not released and you have never used it and there are no apps yet.

Did they get rid of the cable? Or are you still tethered like a prisoner?

What a massive over reaction.

 

[ijordano]

Still no killer apps

I don't think there will necessarily be a "killer app", I think over time computing will just evolve so that this is the way we become used to using a computer, as more and more companies invest in AR/VR.


Separately, SURELY they aren't still planning to release this with the M2?

 

[smulji]

To me, the killer app will be immersion. For example, allowing event organisers to have live concerts streamed to me from the comfort of my own home could be a way of selling a few extra tickets (and maybe for Apple to take a cut as middleman).

The killer app may very well not be apps, but content. In this case, you need the hardware to be top notch (thus justifying its higher price) in order to deliver the desired experience.

And Apple customers will pay. That has always been Apple’s strength - that they have aggregated the best customers in the world.

If that's the best reason you can come up with for a killer app then this device will fail like 3DTV. Even Apple's customers, not named Robert Scoble or Neil Cybart, have sense enough not to waste $3,500 USD on this.

 

[smulji]

Apple has had a heathy ecosystem of $2000 to $4000 MBP buyers for decades. The $2300 to $2500 models seemingly the most popular. Granted Apple’s computer line up does numbers drastically lower than phone. Still, that’s what Apple and its users seem willing to bear. Again, as far as a Pro Vision. Expect it to be around $3000 for quite some time. That’s not saying they won’t come out with a more affordable “non Pro” or “SE” model at some point.

Apple best, and most healthy ecosystem consists of: iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch. MBP user base is a drop in the bucket compared to former.

 

[StanleyOmar]

Expect many, many cancellations on version 1 if this is true.

But how would anyone confirm it's true before the 1st gen release? Aside from that, I'm not sure the type of people already lined-up for the first release would be willing to wait another year or two for a potential follow-up based on a few rumours, especially as we begin to see more and more of that first model in action.

 

[hoorayforhollywood]

I'm an Apple nerd and I still can't see the point of an iPad - but it was a hit now in its 10th generation. So ignore me. But the Vision Pro must prove things to people that go way beyond 'that's clever'. And it needs to be the same price as an iPhone. Then we might be into what Apple want - the next level of computing.

 

[hoorayforhollywood]

Do we know if V1 supports ray tracing (M3 based)

M3 chips don't seem to be in short supply - the Vision Pro will 100% have the M3 considering they are only going to sell 100,000 of them.

 

[MICHAELSD]

Sorry to be pedantic, and dont read this as a negative comment. But, I just wanted to share, that to my knowledge(albeit im not a native English speaker) an oxymoron is when contradictory terms are being combined. Like, for example, "wireless cable" would be an oxymoron.

It feels like you are saying it's implied that a second generation productions don't change their design, making it redundant to state that the design of a second generation product is the same. Which, I suppose, to my dull non-english-native brain, makes it closer to a tautology than an oxymoron?

Thanks for the amendment. It is correct that using the term oxymoron was a bit of a reach, but I suppose I was stating that it was contradictory and ironic to express so much fascination in calling a second-generation product “remarkably similar.”

I will start using “tautology” more often, as this is closer to what I intended. I had thought about changing it then realized this is just a forum, but I did have the lingering thought in my head that I could have been more concise in my wording.

 

[ProfessionalFan]

Expect many, many cancellations on version 1 if this is true.

Did people think there wouldn't be a 2nd gen?