Looks like the most powerful W-3300 model will have 38 cores, compared to the 40 cores (32P+8E) of the ASi SoC reported to be planned for the Mac Pro (Jade4C Die) so they might be in the general ballpark. And Jade4C Die won't be anywhere near the 270W TDP of the Intel part.
How close the Jade4C SoC gets to 270W probably isn't so much about CPU cores as it is about GPU cores. There isn't any good sign that Apple is going to completely decoupled cranking up CPU cores from GPU cores. Get more of one then likely going to get more of the other also.
Now if add the 580X TDP budget to the 27OW that would be an even higher number. If the RAM is soldered to the M-series SoC also then that would be another "pull" of TDP into the current 'topside' CPU cooling zone.
The part that is likley missing on the Jade4C part though are
PCI-e v4 x68 lanes versus what ? Perhaps x16-32x PCI-e v3 lanes
> 1TB RAM capacity versus what ? 128GB ( of soldered on LPDDR4/5 ) [ those CPU counts can with RAM limits also ).
So far at WWDC 2021 I haven't seen one peep about 3rd party GPU support in M-series macOS instances. (no eGPU or dGPU support mentions. Several mentions of how much better xyz graphics feature addition will be with Apple GPU). If Apple still has lockout on 3rd party GPU throughout most of Q421 - Q422 time frame then not a particularly good sign they are going to change that in 2023. If Apple drags their feet on 3rd party GPU support
into 2024 (or later ) there is a substantively sized windows for this bump to the Mac Pro ( around 3 year lease sized ).
The other presumption is that the Jade4C actually works well on higher end workloads where have to "walk and chew gum at the same time" ( highly concurrent CPU core and GPU core workloads). Everything Unified Memory can be a dual edge sword if the Unified brings a constrain of being homogeneous memory also.
But the "half sized" Mac Pro could very well follow on with a reduced I/O SoC. If can only provision 3-4 slots then then that is with the whole 2nd MPX bay gone . Trim the DIMMs slots off the backside and can move the SSD NAND modules up to where the DIMMs are. Dump the large PLX switch and again save substantive board space. Provision all the onboard TB out of the SoC ... again more board clean up and therefore shrinkage.
Trim off some of the feet and handle height and at about "half" size with same baseline design approach.
The problem though is that probably have probably alienated some of the current Mac Pro usage base:
1. 5-6 Add-in cards..... Blocked. 9e.g., 2-3 HDX cards, 2-3 M.2 SSD carrier add-in-cards , etc. )
2. Aggregate working set Data footprints of 512+ GB workloads ... Blocked. ( threshold might be as low as 256B In short solder the RAM down isn't volume space efficeint. Extending laptop constraints to the Mac Pro would be a dual edge sword for Apple. )
3 The DIY and/or "control" crowd. The fewer parts can pull/replace the less "Pro" in their eyes. ( Apple not signing NVidia drivers is one thing. Not signing Intel , AMD , or Nvidia drivers is going to an issue for some. The very top end of GPU market, Apple isn't going to cover any more than covering the > 64 core options. )
4. AVX software appendices. Native boot Windows dependencies.
Having "about equal number of cores" isn't going to matter for those folks. If can't get the data into RAM any speed advantage of Apple 'P' cores will be muted against the Intel x86 ones. ( impede the caching on P cores and the IPC will sag significantly. ). If there are no supported drivers for M-series cores for a core... matching count doen't matter either. ( some drivers evolve at a glacial space even if Apple isn't outright banning them.)
A half sized Jade4C Mac Pro would probably sell well. But the hard core holdouts for a "box with slots" will probably not be happy with it.
Well see what Intel does with W-3300 pricing but if that is more competitive that would also help with the pricing problems that the Mac Pro currently has at the top end ( versus Threadripper and high end Ryzen 9 )
Personally doubtful Jade4C is going to pragmatically help much on that aspect. If can't opt out of Apple pricing on RAM and GPU .... that probably won't be a money saver ( Apple is likely going to put a "low unit volume" tax on it also.)
P.S. stopping at 128GB makes it easier to punt on ECC support also. So Apple only needs a "mainstream" memory controller. if Apple is going to chase Intel/AMD/Ampere/etc into the 1TB RAM space then they'll need to up there ECC support on their proprietary RAM controller. I doubt Apple wants to go there because the kernel design driver of the whole SoC series is the iPhone/iPad ... Mac gets some "extra" stuff but not stuff on long term path for those. Similar with kernel changes for > 64 cores... mobile products don't need it long term, probably not going to do it.