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A "total non-story?" Really?
Its is actually. Be it Bloomberg, Forbes, The Information, Digital Times, or Financial Times. They all spit out stories based on almost no facts just to build readership. This is no different than all the Apple car misinformation that people wrote. How about we hear about someone wearing a headset outside on a street corner near Apple campus?
 
Certainly the case for the few Oculus gift recipients I know.

This literally happened to us today. There was a box on the top shelf of our master bedroom closet. My wife asked me what it was and I told her it was our teenage son's Oculus Rift. He hasn't touched it since Christmas week 2019.

My wife said: "Can we take it to Goodwill?"
 
And yet SPOT can't make any money and has resorted to rent seeking with the EU. Net losses the last 4 years with losses in the most current year of $430 million on gross revenues of $11.7 billion. It's like Steve Jobs said about Dropbox/online files years ago, these kinds of things are not businesses, they are features. I also hear they may have jumped the shark by Tik-Tok-ifying their new interface.

None of this changes the fact Apple Music is an awful mess.

When they launched it they said they wanted 100 million subscribers, has it even got there yet?
 
I’m assuming that this product (ski googles) is for mostly developers only.

A consumer version (regular glasses) will be available at a later date once some applications are developed for the device or platform.

Unlike iPod or Watch which is ready to be used by consumers on day 1, Apple’s A/R device likely has no useful applications or utility (so a consumer A/R glasses is basically useless) so they have to release these developers goggles and developers platform first.
 
But this goes back to the initial point: will this headset actually be a product that we will see out in the world being used by people?

Uber became possible because everyone and their dog had a smartphone. Everyone and their dog had a smartphone because the technology had advanced to a stage where it was both feasible and affordable to carry around a big slab of glass.

Which is exactly the argument being made in his article. Lightweight AR 'glasses' > huge clunky VR style 'Goggles'
 
time to market, huh? TC is a money guy and not a product guy and therefore he doesn‘t understand what makes a great product.
TC only has the capability for some small iterations, something lile „inventing“ a yellow iPhone. But basically Cook still sells the products Jobs invented.


What ruined Apple was not growth … They got very greedy … Instead of following the original trajectory of the original vision, which was to make the thing an appliance and get this out there to as many people as possible … they went for profits. They made outlandish profits for about four years. What this cost them was their future. What they should have been doing is making rational profits and going for market share.”
 
But this goes back to the initial point: will this headset actually be a product that we will see out in the world being used by people?
I think you both are right. The product must exist before developers can create the apps that captivate users, but it's also not just that simple either.

Personally I don't see anyone carrying this headset around and using it when out and about. I'll reserve final judgment for launch day, but it sounds bulky if the external battery pack rumors are true. I've never seen anyone out in public using a VR product.

When the category matures to stylish AR glasses, things will change, but that is years, maybe a decade, away. Using the Uber example, Apple's upcoming headset and existing VR solutions are analogous to lugging a portable computer to an internet cafe in order to summon a car. The future AR glasses are the iPhone/mobile moment (that made Uber possible).

Uber became possible because everyone and their dog had a smartphone. Everyone and their dog had a smartphone because the technology had advanced to a stage where it was both feasible and affordable to carry around a big slab of glass.
Exactly.

It's worth repeating that Apple didn't invent the smartphone. Some of the earlier ones were actually quite good, but just not used widely enough to really warrant starting a business that relied on you having an app on your phone. Even in the post-iPhone world some really good smartphone operating systems died because of lack of support.
While true, Apple really nailed it with the iPhone launch. The touch UI was a total game-changer and features like Visual Voicemail and a desktop-level browser in your pocket captured everyone's attention. It still took years, however, to build enough momentum for things like Uber to happen.

Any AR product from anyone will only succeed if developers support it, but developers will only support it if people buy it. Even then it's not a given, we're still waiting for some really big apps to support the Watch or even the iPad.
Don't forget Apple TV, the least supported platform of all. It's a chicken and egg situation when it comes to apps. That's why it's hard for me to see this product being successful if it's priced, as rumored, around $3K. That is simply too expensive for most people, even if the product is highly compelling. Developers aren't going to support the product unless there's a healthy demand for apps and that only happens if enough units are sold.

Will people buy it? I don't know, I don't see a big consumer market for ski goggles that cost 3k and don't enable any of the things you described (which, given the part I've quoted above, sort of undermines your point).

Professional use cases maybe, I do think there have been some pretty good examples here, but until the tech matures more I just don't see it.
There are a number of other products that can be used professionally and have been on the market for a while, yet they haven't been widely adopted. I think it's going to be a very hard sell to consumers and professionals alike if the price point is over $1K.
 
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But this goes back to the initial point: will this headset actually be a product that we will see out in the world being used by people?

Uber became possible because everyone and their dog had a smartphone. Everyone and their dog had a smartphone because the technology had advanced to a stage where it was both feasible and affordable to carry around a big slab of glass.

It's worth repeating that Apple didn't invent the smartphone. Some of the earlier ones were actually quite good, but just not used widely enough to really warrant starting a business that relied on you having an app on your phone. Even in the post-iPhone world some really good smartphone operating systems died because of lack of support.

Any AR product from anyone will only succeed if developers support it, but developers will only support it if people buy it. Even then it's not a given, we're still waiting for some really big apps to support the Watch or even the iPad.

Will people buy it? I don't know, I don't see a big consumer market for ski goggles that cost 3k and don't enable any of the things you described (which, given the part I've quoted above, sort of undermines your point).

Professional use cases maybe, I do think there have been some pretty good examples here, but until the tech matures more I just don't see it.
Developers ski-goggles must come first so developers can make apps for consumer light weight glasses.
 
I’m assuming that this product (ski googles) is for mostly developers only.

A consumer version (regular glasses) will be available at a later date once some applications are developed for the device or platform.

Unlike iPod or Watch which is ready to be used by consumers on day 1, Apple’s A/R device likely has no useful applications or utility (so a consumer A/R glasses is basically useless) so they have to release these developers goggles and developers platform first.
The "this version is mostly for developers" argument that I see on here a lot makes no sense. Why, as a developer, would you invest your precious time to develop apps for a device that no consumers are buying? Look at Apple TV. It's not a commercially successful product and the dismal App Store offerings reflect that.
 
HomePod isn't a flop. It's still around now with new hardware and new hardware revisions in the works.

What are the other "plenty of misses" you have in mind?
The original HomePod was a flop. It barely sold which is why it was discontinued.

Apple has had, in no particular order, The Original HomePod, iPod HiFi, Pippen, Newton. They’ve also had some bad software ideas that have failed or launched really badly: Slofie, iTunes Ping, Apple Maps, MobileMe, most recently the embarrassing camera quality on the Studio Display.

This isn’t to say that any of the above were bad products (except Newton) but they didn’t sell well. On the software side of things they have had some really unfortunate launches that came out way before they were ready.

My point is it’s not guaranteed to be a hit just because it has Apples name on it. They have misfires and bug ridden launches just like all other companies. They are just usually quicker to try and fix them, which is great but they are by no means perfect.
 
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The "this version is mostly for developers" argument that I see on here a lot makes no sense. Why, as a developer, would you invest your precious time to develop apps for a device that no consumers are buying? Look at Apple TV. It's not a commercially successful product and the dismal App Store offerings reflect that.

That's what I'm thinking, but then again I'm not a developer so what do I know.

I think a developer kit would make sense if they could already announce a consumer product to be released later, even next year, but without it? Sounds off.
 
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But this goes back to the initial point: will this headset actually be a product that we will see out in the world being used by people?

Uber became possible because everyone and their dog had a smartphone. Everyone and their dog had a smartphone because the technology had advanced to a stage where it was both feasible and affordable to carry around a big slab of glass.

It's worth repeating that Apple didn't invent the smartphone. Some of the earlier ones were actually quite good, but just not used widely enough to really warrant starting a business that relied on you having an app on your phone. Even in the post-iPhone world some really good smartphone operating systems died because of lack of support.

Any AR product from anyone will only succeed if developers support it, but developers will only support it if people buy it. Even then it's not a given, we're still waiting for some really big apps to support the Watch or even the iPad.

Will people buy it? I don't know, I don't see a big consumer market for ski goggles that cost 3k and don't enable any of the things you described (which, given the part I've quoted above, sort of undermines your point).

Professional use cases maybe, I do think there have been some pretty good examples here, but until the tech matures more I just don't see it.

I'm not convinced Apple is going to release ski goggles VR-only device. The iPhone didn't leak because only a select group of senior engineers and VPs had seen one fully assembled and working with the hardware and software together. The vast majority of Apple's employees saw the iPhone for the first time when the public did. I very much doubt any low level software engineer that's leaking to Mark Gurman has seen this thing. The device Gurman is describing with full blackout ski goggles and an external battery source, sounds very much like a development kit that's being used internally.

I suspect that Apple is going to tease the real glasses on stage at WWDC and show off the goggles that will be sold to developers for $3000 to design and test their apps and there'll be a long build up to the consumer release some time next year.

The iPhone had zero 3rd party apps. Even YouTube and Google Maps were built by Apple's team. People bought it because its native capabilities were worth it – it didn't need developers to sell. The App Store was gravy when it arrived a year later.

This is going to be very much like the Watch where its functions and style were enough to buy the first gen. It only really came into its own two to three years later. Very few people had been wearing smart watches at that time, this was an entirely new category for the general public. It didn't improve on a like device, it improved on the iPhone. The glasses will do the same, doing some things better than the iPhone does, enough for some to want it, which will start building a user base.
 
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The "this version is mostly for developers" argument that I see on here a lot makes no sense. Why, as a developer, would you invest your precious time to develop apps for a device that no consumers are buying? Look at Apple TV. It's not a commercially successful product and the dismal App Store offerings reflect that.

That’s the gamble that the developers take.
Fortune favors the bold.

If one would have jumped on the app band wagon when Apple released the iPhone, they could have made a fortune on apps - everything from Camera+ to novelty app like iFart. Developers don’t want to miss out becoming the next Snapchat or Instagram etc.

Second, Apple has a large developer base as well a trusted consumer base - sure it fails sometimes, but most times it succeeds and consumers trust them.

This is not saying that Apple will succeed especially with limited success from MS, Meta and outright failure from Google - but they have a solid track record of not being first but being the first to do it right.
 
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This article doesn’t make sense. There has been numerous articles in the past that Apple had planned to release the AR/VR product back in 2020/2021/2022 — was the pushback against these deadlines? Why would they wait until an AR-only product was ready, and what does this have to do with shipping a VR-focused device this year? The article doesn’t make it clear when these “concerns” were made.

Steve Jobs pushed his team to ship the Mac and the first GUI on a personal computer in an insanely short period of time. I think it is good when execs are pushing to ship instead of staying in the r&d-sphere indefinitely.
 
The original HomePod was a flop. It barely sold which is why it was discontinued.
The OG HomePod wasn’t a product flop. It did its job admirably. You don’t know why it was discontinued, you can only speculate. It was replaced with essentially the same product.
Apple has had, in no particular order, The Original HomePod, iPod HiFi, Pippen, Newton. They’ve also had some bad software ideas that have failed or launched really badly: Slofie, iTunes Ping, Apple Maps, MobileMe, most recently the embarrassing camera quality on the Studio Display.
Yes, sometimes companies just have to get their products out. As innovative as the OG iPhone 1 was no copy and paste was frustrating beyond belief.
This isn’t to say that any of the above were bad products (except Newton) but they didn’t sell well. On the software side of things they have had some really unfortunate launches that came out way before they were ready.

My point is it’s not guaranteed to be a hit just because it has Apples name on it. They have misfires and bug ridden launches just like all other companies. They are just usually quicker to try and fix them, which is great but they are by no means perfect.
Yes I agree somewhat. Failures breed successes if one learns from the failures.
 
It sounds to me like the design team fundamentally disagree on what the product should be.

Sounds like Tim is happy to ship 1 million units of a very limited product.

It sounds more like a sibling product rivalry over a fixed set of resource allocations to me. The design team wants the AR only product to succeed more and not enthusiastic about the VR aspects of the larger headset. To kneecap one product to help out another product smells like a 'rivalry'.


If put out the AR/VR product and customers/developers only push the VR features of the larger head set then that might suck all of the resources up and the lightweight AR product gets 'starved and dies'.

I suspect the expectations here are way off though. I'd be very surprised if Apple sold 0.5M AR/VR headsets, let alone 1M at the $2.5-3K price points. One rumor said that Apple was already looking at a less expensive AR/VR headset

January

" .. , Bloomberg says that Apple is delaying the augmented reality Apple Glasses that it had been working on. The rollout of the ‌Apple Glasses‌ has been postponed indefinitely, and work on the device has been pared back. ..."



The more AR/VR products there are to keep up to date in design the less likely there will be gobs of extra , free flowing money for the AR only product. Even more so if the AR/VR headset SoC(s) design skew the Silicon team off into a slightly different tangent that what AR lightest possible folks will slap constraints on that SoC. If the gulf is big enough there is relatively overlap between the silicon dies then that is a threat to the AR Glasses product also.
The yearly iPhone pace is a design resource consumption monster. Basically a hamster on a treadmill trying to keep up. the AR/VR products could turn into a 'black hole'.

[ I wouldn't be surprised if the lightweight AR design had not painted the SoC into such a corner that Apple might need to wait for TSMC N2 (or later) fab process to get them out of the hyper narrow battery and physical constraints. ]


If Apple delayed the AR/VR updates to the same time as the AR glasses (and kept the AR/VR headset much, much higher in price ) , then the momentum would far more so be on the AR lightweight glasses side. It would have a larger installed base.



The notion that the AR/VR headset would be a 'fail' at 1M/year run rate reminds me of the first several years of 'doom and gloom' thrown at the Apple Watch. " Oh it will never be as big a product as the iPhone so doom , fail , etc." There are a couple of vendors shipping multiples of millions of units but at what cost. Subsidizing the below costs to just shovel them out the door. Apple doesn't do that. They don't do 'loss leaders".

It is more important that the AR/VR headset be cash flow positive and profitable. If it can pay for itself then there is likely likely a design resource constraint that will block the lightweight AR headset. The upper execs pushing very hard for a lower cost AR/VR doesn't really build confidence that the higher end one is going to be able to support itself. Likely that is part of the 'push back' about pushing the lightweight AR further out to 'fix' the VR/AR part of the line up.



I think Jobs did a better job of making ID think they were almost always getting their way with the decisions and that completely spun out of control when Ive was left unchecked and unquestioned for so long. He seems to left behind lots of remnants of that same attitude. sometimes have to adapt to help out other folks that contribute to product realization.



P.S. the M-series migration on the Mac side largely left Industrial design out of the mix also.

M1 MBA ... same old case.
M1/M2/M2 Pro Mini ... same old case
MBP 13" M1/M2 ... same old case.

iMac 24 ( iPad on a stick) ... new but comatose for over two years.
Mac Studio .. largely a derived off the Mini case.

Mac Pro ... latest rumblings same old case with slight mods .


When deliberate time to market speed matters, Apple industrial design is a lability; not an asset. ( the Mac Pro has been in Rip van Winkle mode how many times over the last decade. The Mini similar boat.) ID has lots more leverage of 'demanding' that things go their way when there isn't an alternative design readily available. I think there is a small amount of "hey you are bypassing us too often" grumbling mixed in with the headsets also.
 
Cook's pay this year is estimated to be only $50 million compared to $100 million in 2022. He might be getting itchy.
Cook’s net worth is >$1B — I don’t think a $50M cut (that he agreed to) matters to him. The man doesn’t appear to be motivated by his salary.
 
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The OG HomePod wasn’t a product flop. It did its job admirably. You don’t know why it was discontinued, you can only speculate. It was replaced with essentially the same product.

The OG HomePod was augmented by another product with a completely different price point. And the new HomePod was redesigned to largely share that same infrastructure (that is now being amortized over a much broader set of users).

The new HomePod has reduced the Bill of Materials. ( so better margins for the" higher than most people want to pay" device).

The full sized HomePod most likely is going to be a 'hobby product' that Apple updates rarely as it starts to fade from th niche market that buys it.

I think one of the reasons Apple jumped back in was the used HomePod selling for more than new ones when still on the market. So they were not a flop , but also not particularly large enough market to sustain an ecosystem either.
Apple is probably only looking to sell enough new ones to keep the used market from going "higher than new". Howeer, if the HomePod mini had not gotten substantively larger traction , it pretty doubtful Apple would have come back.
 
Cook’s net worth is >$1B — I don’t think a $50M cut (that he agreed to) matters to him. The man doesn’t appear to be motivated by his salary.

Cook is motivated by his annual invitations to Davos and events around the world with the pretty people. He sure as hell isn't motivated by creativity or innovation.

Except for emojis...

Lots of emojis...
 
HomePod is the only Apple product mentioned as an Apple failure product in the last 20 years. It’s always HP. Meanwhile HomePod is back and now leading the way with HP mini

Apple Card is kinda a failure in itself too. It's costing Goldman Sachs billions and is STILL only available in the US, with it's Europe expansion nowhere in sight. Combine that with lackluster rewards combined with a terrible enrollment process and Apple Card's pretty much a dead end
 
This article is a total non-story.

The design team would never be expected to set the launch strategy for a new product.

The CEO agreeing with the COO as to whether the product launches as a standalone item or later when a 2nd similar device is ready sounds like the key people who own this decision are aligned.

Indeed. But the design team is expected to tell the COO if a product is ready for launch or not. If it's not, don't launch it. Once upon a time the credo at Apple was "it's ready when it's ready". If the COO or the CEO force the launch of an immature, unfinished product, then quite a lot of **** might start to hit the fan soon.

Personally I'm not convinced such a headset will ever become a mass product.
 
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