Report: Vision Pro Headset's Complex Design Forcing Apple to Make 'Drastic' Production Cuts

[jz0309]

Financial Times - a reliable source in the Apple supply chain world…
And seriously, a product announced not even a month ago, launching in like 9 months from now, really? Apple has at least until the end of the year if not longer to sort issues out…

 

[jz0309]

Marketing tactic. “Such a unique, complex, innovative design - there won’t be many on the shelf, make sure to pre-order immediately.”

Yea, that came to mind too, Apple seeding rumors to hype it up… works with Gurman

 

[addamas]

I'm not sure if a 3500+ USD device with (often) personalised prescription lens inserts will work for in-store pickup. Most of the buyers will be businesses and wealthy people with more money than free time, none of which are silly enough to go to an Apple store for pick-up.

I would love to see demo units there though, I'm okay with booking an appointment and getting a few minutes with the device on my head to see if I like it.

This thing will be sold-out right away though, no matter the production numbers.

It’s insane that you need presciption to buy lenses or glasses where in Europe you can buy them in grocery store or chemistry 🤦‍♂️
This way without problems I bough lenses in vendor machines or ordered them online without revisiting optician. Also bought myopia lenses for PSVR2 without need of government to allow me that.

Maybe you are not directly telling that but I merged what I read on Reddit about USA few weeks ago

 

[Abobrek]

$3,500 isn’t a lot of money nowadays especially after the fed printed trillions.

No idea about discomfort since most people preordering have not tried it on.

The world is huge. Lots of people have lots of money. There will be more than 200k people who want and can afford this.

For me, the killer application is the ability to have unlimited screen space when I’m traveling and coding.

There is no way 200k units will be enough to satisfy demand in 2024.

Do not forget. TWO HOURS of battery life. And then there’s the argument of “You can plug it in to provide power” but then that defeats your argument of “portability” “traveling” “using it on the go” etc. Also, you do realize that you are only able to stream ONE MacBook screen, right?

 

[carrrrrlos]

Curious if this will be another product Apple teases, but never launches - like the Magic Charger.

 

[tornadowrangler]

What's impossible to know about this thing until it is out in the wild is how much or how long will people use it once they have it. It is an awesome demonstration of technology to be sure, but there's a chance a lot of these will just be sitting on a shelf after the novelty wears off.

Remember back to when Steve introduced the iPad? He said it had to be BETTER at doing some key things than a laptop or an iPhone, or it had no reason to exist.

If the Vision Pro can't do things better than a laptop, tablet, or phone, it doesn't matter how cool it is to use, people are going to revert to the thing that better, easier, or quicker.

 

[JPack]

I disagree. With higher volumes, price goes down.

Higher volumes don't come out of thin air.

Sony Semiconductor, the sole supplier of the micro OLED panels, have said they're not willing to invest and ramp due to not knowing who's buying them besides Apple.

 

[Eriamjh1138@DAN]

These reports are typical of EVERY launch of the iPhone and everything works out.
This is normal and I doubt the numbers as they could easily change as Apple irons out the process problems.
It’s basically FUD.

 

[JPack]

These reports are typical of EVERY launch of the iPhone and everything works out.
This is normal and I doubt the numbers as they could easily change as Apple irons out the process problems.
It’s basically FUD.

I've never heard of iPhone being launched in one country only. Nor with an ambiguous shipping date of "early next year."

 

[harriska2]

If the 200k-400k number is true, my guess is that it will sell out in an hour or less with online pre-orders. Apple doesn’t seem to have the stomach for long lines and people with enough disposable income to purchase this won’t want to wait in line.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

Agreed. We saw how the iPhone 5C "flopped" in the market so I do not see Apple offering a "Vision Pro Air" with a plastic chassis and LED displays.

What is more likely is that as production capacity and yields of the components increases, the BoM will fall and that will allow Apple to lower the MSRP. It will never be "cheap", but it could eventually end up a $2499 device or perhaps even $1999 device.

It is also possible this is just an interim project designed to provide a bridge to an actual "eyeglass" type Augmented Reality product a few years down the road that would be simpler and by extension cheaper than the full VR/AR experience the Vision Pro offers. Apple could keep the Vision Pro in the lineup (at a lower price than today), but the "mainstream" model would be the "AR glasses".

That is possible, but given how seemingly complex the device is to make, we are many years away from any sort of price reduction. I actually think $3499 is inexpensive for what they are offering. They may offer different models with various degrees of supply constraint, similar to what Tesla does.

And I just don’t see the rumored “eyeglass” type AR device ever happening. It’s a moonshot project, and I don’t even see the practical usage of this type of device. I think after using the VP, expectations will be so high that such a device would never be able to come close to the experience.

 

[harriska2]

It’s insane that you need presciption to buy lenses or glasses where in Europe you can buy them in grocery store or chemistry 🤦‍♂️
This way without problems I bough lenses in vendor machines or ordered them online without revisiting optician. Also bought myopia lenses for PSVR2 without need of government to allow me that.

Maybe you are not directly telling that but I merged what I read on Reddit about USA few weeks ago

Interesting. I have an astigmatism so each eye has different corrections. I doubt a vending machine could help me. Plus I wear progressive lenses for daily/driving and a special reading glasses adjusted to 18” for computer wear.

 

[tomtad]

Marketing tactic. “Such a unique, complex, innovative design - there won’t be many on the shelf, make sure to pre-order immediately.”

Nintendo started this I think, it has a term

 

[tomtad]

And I just don’t see the rumored “eyeglass” type AR device ever happening. It’s a moonshot project, and I don’t even see the practical usage of this type of device. I think after using the VP, expectations will be so high that such a device would never be able to come close to the experience.

I agree. The glasses could happen but it would be a very different device. Realistically they could overlay information in your field of vision. I'm thinking Google Glass but with the screen part actually in the glasses rather than stuck on the side. But you're just not going to get anywhere near the level of immersion you get from a video pass through VR headset with a light shield to make interacting with windows, gaming, cinema-sized video screens etc workable.

 

[Naraxus]

Can't even compare the Vision Pro to the Charging Mat. Two totally different arenas!

Apple is at least 5 years ahead of the competition ... again... so they have time for the tech to mature, and production processes to be perfected.

El oh el. Five years ahead in a category that will go absolutely nowhere

 

[RickDEGH]

You're assuming the analysts know what they're talking about and are deliberately lying. They don't know, they're just guessing.

I meant Apple is lying. It’s obvious that analysts make their predictions from supply chain info, which Apple could perfectly control.

 

[Abazigal]

- l
- What's the killer application?

Based on what I have seen so far, immersion. The ability to consume experiences in a manner previously not possible with any other device.

Just the ability to record spatial video and relive key experiences later sounds like it will be enough of a draw for some people.

I meant Apple is lying. It’s obvious that analysts make their predictions from supply chain info, which Apple could perfectly control.

The parable of the elephant and the 4 blind men comes to mind. They may have access to certain data from supply chain, they may not know what it necessarily means given they lack access to the overall bigger picture.

 

[CWallace]

They'll be lucky to sell that in the first year. Have you even seen this product? It's an iPad, that requires wearing a massive and uncomfortable headset, that only lasts 2 hours, and costs $3500+.

With respect, I believe that developers, enterprise customers, "influencers", "first adopters" and people who just want to show off could probably comfortably absorb five figures figures or more worth of Vision Pros in 2024. This would include people outside of the US who can travel to the US to get one or can use an "off the shelf" model shipped by a US purchaser to them.

 

[CWallace]

I meant Apple is lying. It’s obvious that analysts make their predictions from supply chain info, which Apple could perfectly control.

I honestly do not see what advantage Apple gets from lying about the supply chain considering how leaky it is, though it is true that the information coming from the supply chain often has no real context and the people reporting that information spin it into the "rumors" we read on this site and others.

That being said, the information coming out of the supply chain claims Sony is the sole manufacturer of the MicroOLED displays the Vision Pro will use and because the only customer they are said to have for said displays is Apple, they are not willing to invest in increasing production beyond their current ~one million unit annual capacity (which means ~500,000 maximum Vision Pros).

 

[senttoschool]

Do not forget. TWO HOURS of battery life. And then there’s the argument of “You can plug it in to provide power” but then that defeats your argument of “portability” “traveling” “using it on the go” etc. Also, you do realize that you are only able to stream ONE MacBook screen, right?

I’m not going to put it on and code while I’m in a car or bus. I’ll be at a hotel/Airbnb, or remote office.

You realize that one Macbook screen with unlimited size is the same as unlimited MacBook screens right?

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Interesting. I have an astigmatism so each eye has different corrections. I doubt a vending machine could help me. Plus I wear progressive lenses for daily/driving and a special reading glasses adjusted to 18” for computer wear.

You’re right, glasses that fix for astigmatism can’t be purchased from a vending machine. There are cheap glasses for simple near/farsightedness that can be purchased at any drug store in the US, too, but not astigmatism.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

I meant Apple is lying. It’s obvious that analysts make their predictions from supply chain info, which Apple could perfectly control.

Apple definitely controls the supply chain info, but that ends up in analysts not being able to get ANY current information. It’s all months old at best and from folks that are likely not even part of the supply chain anymore.

They write what they write not because they want folks to pay them to have access to their content. Whether or not it’s based on current information or is even right doesn’t even factor into it. By the time it actually ships, the analyst can simply say, “They resolved their problems right before shipping, like in the last 4 days so, yeah now they’re shipping 4 million”.

 

[canadianspeculator]

With a mouse or trackpad, you have to move the cursor. With Vision Pro you just look at things, and that's that. That's a super fast method of interaction, no matter what task you're doing on the computer.

When I use a mouse, I have at a minimum three unique inputs I can effortlessly give at any one location. I obviously haven't tried this thing (and am biased, it seems extremely DOA in my opinion), but i can't for the life of me understand how using your eyes is more efficient than a mouse for most tasks given the extremely limited input. Extra so for a keyboard- how is looking around at various menus a faster use of my time than launching a macro or keyboard shortcut?

 

[canadianspeculator]

This is key in getting someone to sign up for your “paywalled report”. It doesn’t even matter that there ARE no supply chain informants, they just have to talk a good enough game for folks paying for the report to think, “Yes, I’m totally getting insider information that no one else (other than the other folks paying for the report) can get!!”

I don't think you can lurk on macrumours and try to accuse the Financial Times of poor sourcing lol. Disagree with the analysis if you choose, but the Financial Times is an extremely credible news source, and far from a gimmicky clickbait site.

 

[aibloop]

Whatever.. manufactured scarcity…

Gurman, even a broken watch is right twice a day…Doesn‘t mean anyone should put any trust in him.