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Report: Vision Pro Headset's Complex Design Forcing Apple to Make 'Drastic' Production Cuts

MajorFubar said:
In recent years the launch of nearly every new Apple device is followed within a month or two by a news item saying Apple are having to scale-back expected production for one reason or another. I'm at least 50% sure by now that this is just a marketing-ploy to encourage panic-ordering from the type of people who went on toilet-roll buying-sprees at the start of the pandemic.
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Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple does this to drum up interest. Their marketing department is probably just as highly regarded within the company as their engineering department because they’re the ones who ultimately get the products out the door.
 
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aibloop said:
Do you think Apple will treat Apple Vision Pro as a Mac? That would be very much out of line based on their last hardware releases aka iPhone, Ipad, Apple Watch...

I very much doubt you will be able to spec it out much. PERHAPS you can choose storage and the RAM is doubled on the bigger SSD options like on the iPad Pro. (But this is not advertised much)

My guess is 8gb and 16 gb on 1tb+ options. (or 16gb and 32gb)
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It will be more like this. Apple will offer the GB options I think.

1688516431729.jpeg
 
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Surf Monkey said:
Sure. But the pandemic also provided a temporary context in which a device like this made sense for a large number of people, many of whom wouldn’t have balked at the price simply for the telepresence aspect. In my opinion the Vision Pro was a bet that that context would continue into perpetuity. But that didn’t happen and now Apple is strapped with a product that makes far less sense in a context where people are seeking more real-world interactions, not less.
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Sorry, I completely missed your larger point. If you're saying Apple may have missed their "Peloton Moment" for the Vision Pro, you're probably right!
 
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Quu said:
I think it's a super interesting device and I'm planning to buy one. However, I don't think they'll sell 150,000 units in the first year. I think they'll sell closer to 20,000. The $3,500 cost prices out 97% of Apple consumers and the lack of applications that make use of the headset will make it a hard sale for business use (this first gen unit specifically which lacks 3rd party apps).
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Over 1.65 billion Apple devices are currently online worldwide.
What percentage of 1.65 billion is 150,000?
Maybe 97% of Apple consumers won't buy one, but you don't realize how many Apple users there are.
They will sell as many as they can make.
 
kfireven said:
This product is going to be worth so much within a few decades if stayed unopened. It'll be so rare + a 1st gen Apple product = $$$$$$$$, now that's a good investment.
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Buy Apple stock - the Apple stock I bought the year they announced the iPhone has made me a small fortune.
 
Richard700 said:
Over 1.65 billion Apple devices are currently online worldwide.
What percentage of 1.65 billion is 150,000?
Maybe 97% of Apple consumers won't buy one, but you don't realize how many Apple users there are.
They will sell as many as they can make.
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That's crazy thinking, "if you're a current apple customer, then there's a strong chance you'll buy the vision pro."
 
Richard700 said:
Over 1.65 billion Apple devices are currently online worldwide.
What percentage of 1.65 billion is 150,000?
Maybe 97% of Apple consumers won't buy one, but you don't realize how many Apple users there are.
They will sell as many as they can make.
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You're the 3rd person to quote me on this. And my point was, 97% cannot afford it. The remaining 3% can afford it but that doesn't mean they will buy it.

It's a much much smaller market than the iPhone where only 1-2% of Apple customers cannot afford an iPhone. This device due to its high cost is a niche within a niche within a niche. It has to appeal to very affluent Apple users who are into wearing a device similar to a VR headset on their face. That is a very small number within an even smaller number of people who can even afford it was my point.

Them selling 150,000 units of this first-generation headset isn't going to happen, in my opinion, and it's just that, my opinion.
 
TheDauterive said:
Because it’s $3500 for an entry in a product category that‘s struggling to establish itself at a fraction of the price.

The number of people in this thread who seem to think people will spend any amount of money asked of them just because it’s Apple baffles me.
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The number of people thinking this is just another VR headset baffles me. There are way more than half a million people in this world with the funds and the interest to be first movers in a potentially revolutionary new computing category.

Comparing Apple Vision to any number of VR headsets, high end speakers, or gold watches are meaningless and futile.
 
Quu said:
You're the 3rd person to quote me on this. And my point was, 97% cannot afford it. The remaining 3% can afford it but that doesn't mean they will buy it.

It's a much much smaller market than the iPhone where only 1-2% of Apple customers cannot afford an iPhone. This device due to its high cost is a niche within a niche within a niche. It has to appeal to very affluent Apple users who are into wearing a device similar to a VR headset on their face. That is a very small number within an even smaller number of people who can even afford it was my point.

Them selling 150,000 units of this first-generation headset isn't going to happen, in my opinion, and it's just that, my opinion.
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I don't totally disagree with your percentages, but I feel you are underestimating the sheer numbers of Apple users out there. 150,000 is a very small number when it come to Apple users. I am sure that there will even be a good percentage who'll buy for the novelty, or just to be the first, and may or may not even use it on a regular basis after they buy it.
 
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Richard700 said:
I don't totally disagree with your percentages, but I feel you are underestimating the sheer numbers of Apple users out there. 150,000 is a very small number when it come to Apple users. I am sure that there will even be a good percentage who'll buy for the novelty, or just to be the first, and may or may not even use it on a regular basis after they buy it.
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I'm aware they have over a billion users, as a software developer.

But I still think $3,500 will result in this not selling all that well for a first gen device. I can't even find anyone I know who is interested and they're walking Apple billboards, all of em.
 
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macfacts said:
That's crazy thinking, "if you're a current apple customer, then there's a strong chance you'll buy the vision pro."
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No, that's not what I said.
"150,000 is a very small number when it come to Apple users"
There are many millions of Apple users - you don't think there will be at least 150,000 who will buy one.
 
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macfacts said:
That's crazy thinking, "if you're a current apple customer, then there's a strong chance you'll buy the vision pro."
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Indeed. Especially when you think most people are saying they now keep their iPhone for 3 to 4 years due in part to the high cost. The idea that a large percentage of Apple users will pay what is the equivalent of 3 x iPhone 14 Pro Max's for a headset with questionable utility for their day to day lives.. it's a big question mark. I can't see it selling 150K units in the first year. Gen 2, 3 maybe.

Like just think how important people's phones are to them and they're already like, I'll keep this for 3-4 years. The headset has an uphill battle at this price point.
 
Born Again said:
$3500 headset that doesn’t actually benefit the end user? Lol
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what does this remind me of?
oh yeah: "$500 fully subsidized with a plan I said that is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn't appeal to business customers because it doesn't have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine"
(
)
 
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ErikGrim said:
The number of people thinking this is just another VR headset baffles me. There are way more than half a million people in this world with the funds and the interest to be first movers in a potentially revolutionary new computing category.

Comparing Apple Vision to any number of VR headsets, high end speakers, or gold watches are meaningless and futile.
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As I said in my post, the headset is spectacular, but what do you use it for? Does the revolutionary technology make browsing the web, writing a email, or working on a Keynote presentation a revolutionary experience? I suspect it doesn't. The specs on the Vision Pro are extremely impressive, but you don't need that much power to do the pedestrian things that were showcased during the WWDC keynote. I love VR and I can't wait for Apple to make this a no-brainer to purchase, I just don't think for $3500 it's there yet.

And there are no doubt more than half a million people who have the funds to purchase this, I among them. But the one thing every very rich person I know has in common is they take money seriously. I'm sure there are some people out there (coke fueled rock stars in the mid-eighties?) who will buy this whether they want it or not and keep it even if they don't like it, but the wealthy people I know will probably want to try it first, and if they buy it and don't like it, will return it for a refund. Do you really think listening to Apple Music in a VR headset will be worth $3500 to them?

Screenshot 2023-07-05 at 2.06.48 AM.png
 
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TheDauterive said:
As I said in my post, the headset is spectacular, but what do you use it for? Does the revolutionary technology make browsing the web, writing a email, or working on a Keynote presentation a revolutionary experience? I suspect it doesn't. The specs on the Vision Pro are extremely impressive, but you don't need that much power to do the pedestrian things that were showcased during the WWDC keynote. I love VR and I can't wait for Apple to make this a no-brainer to purchase, I just don't think for $3500 it's there yet.

And there are no doubt more than half a million people who have the funds to purchase this, I among them. But the one thing every very rich person I know has in common is they take money seriously. I'm sure there are some people out there (coke fueled rock stars in the mid-eighties?) who will buy this whether they want it or not and keep it even if they don't like it, but the wealthy people I know will probably want to try it first, and if they buy it and don't like it, will return it for a refund. Do you really think listening to Apple Music in a VR headset will be worth $3500 to them?

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The concept consistently stumbles on the fact that it’s goggles. That presents a very high hurdle to entry. Probably the highest Apple has ever tried to get people to jump.

In order for “spatial computing” to be a success as a “new paradigm” this device and its progeny will have to be accepted widely. Like an iPhone or an iPad. Ultimately Apple wants your mom to buy one. But your mom is never going to sign on to goggles.

And even if we ignore all of that the issues don’t disappear. They compound. Now you have people actually wearing it, but to do… what exactly? Apple didn’t show anything that pointed towards a revolutionary use case. They did the opposite. They failed to show any use case that suggests people will keep putting it on over and over.

Maybe some compelling use case will emerge, maybe it won’t. If media consumption is the primary plan for it, it’ll fail before it gets shipped. As much as I’d love to see this succeed I just don’t see a valid path to wide spread acceptance.
 
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