And if it does not have any feature differentiation? Besides size, weight and price. That's exactly my point! My gut says in this case 70% will buy the Mini. Now if Apple choses to differentiate its lineup with more pixels and more memory only in the larger iPads, that's another story. And a story I don't want to hear.
Well, my gut feeling is that the ratio of devices sold will reflect the usage numbers out there, which are held up to be very accurate in the case of iDevices. If there is parity in the feature list, then I expect the sales mix to be about 75% iPad Air and 25% iPad Mini, like it was last year, when there was feature parity. (while the low gamut of the Mini was something that you and I care about, the general consumer public is not so discerning.)
You and I are a minority. We just have to face that and accept it. I do wonder though, once I receive my 6+ if I might rethink the size.
I use my iPad rMini professionally at my desk as a second screen, and in meetings for presentations and illustrations, on my commute for games, newspaper and books, in the bed at night to relax, on the couch as an extra TV (Formula 1 live timing, watching a second Premier or Champions League match simultaneously on the smaller screen), at the breakfast table as a newspaper replacement, etc. It is my personal computer in a most literal sense. I haven't used a laptop at home in a private capacity since I got my wife and I iPad 2's at launch to replace our old clunky Windows PC's. Haven't looked back or missed it once in that time. We got a Mac mini as our home media hub at the same time with an ATV connected to every TV. I have my MBA for the intense work.
In my use case, my iPad is not only very much a personal laptop replacement, and goes with me everywhere, it is also a productive and useful compliment to my workhorse MBA. I have it on my person almost as often as my iPhone, with the exception of weekends. That's why I enjoy the smaller form factor. But as you can see, my use case is extensive and not typical, and most likely doesn't represent the vast majority of consumer use. I just wonder how much a 6+ might actually replace some of my uses, or if I will always reach for the iPad when it is available?
The thing is most people don't realise how capable a device the iPad is. It differentiates itself from the iPhone simply by the much better app experience it delivers, even on apps that are also made for iPhone. People that say that the iPad is just an iPhone with a larger screen, and say that the 6+ negates the usefulness of the iPad, whether it be the Mini or the Air, either just don't get it, or have a very limited use case for the device. I could never use an iPhone in the same way I use my iPad both at home and in the office. The screen is just too small physically, and the screen real estate in terms of points is also too small.
My point is, that the main reason I love the smaller form factor so much is because the portability is unmatched. It isn't even noticeable in my laptop briefcase slid in next to my MBA. It is also easier to type on as my thumbs reach every key without stretching when in landscape. But on the other hand I look at my wife's Air and think about how nice the bigger screen is.
If there is feature parity it is going to be a tougher decision, but if the Air has a feature advantage, there is no contest, and it either shows Apple's intentions for the future of the smaller form factor, or simply means that giving feature parity was just not economically feasible for them this time around. It will be interesting to find out in the coming weeks. I usually order immediately, but I am going to wait for the iFixit and Anandtech teardowns this time to see what is up inside of these things for things like RAM, clockspeed and especially screen quality to make a decision.