Rivian Explains Why CarPlay Debate Will Become 'Completely Obsolete'

[germanbeer007]

no goal posts moved. the facts are that tesla has been down 3 of the last 5 quarters

I didn't post 5 quarters. I gave you last 2 quarters that were compared YoY. when you see an increase Year over Year for two consecutive quarters, that's a clear objective truth the deliveries bottomed out. You said "time will tell if you what you say is real" but time won't change the numbers of the past 2 quarters.

You're now moving the goal post to "confidence".

I feel that Tesla squandered their lead, rather than releasing more models that would really pull in more customers, they went down the cybertruck and cybertaxi well. I haven't seen anything from tesla that makes me excited. I'm not alone.

Model Y L is hot. Cybertruck AWD sold out until 2027. Cybercab already in production.

Your own subjective take doesn't really match the reality of what's going on.

I was making a point about safety and redundancy. I will try to make it more clear for you in the future.

Is Waymo less than perfect? Do you accept Waymos being on the road?

If you answer yes to both, you've contradicted yourself. "I will make it more clear" is hardly the issue when it's really about the contradiction you made.

I will reword it for you

I'm glad we both agree you are changing what you said earlier.

so you agree that tesla should adopt lidar technology? great.

No.

I will yield and give you the point.

Finally.

Now we agree that lidar saw the pole, and the cameras didn't,

Camera sensor did. Inference in the camera *system* didn't.

good thing lidar was there or the pole wouldn't have been assigned a damage score at all. why do you think lidar is bad again?

I'll have to repeat what I said for you since you didn't understand. Sensor contention. Lidar system saw it, camera system didn't. System includes inference on the camera sensor.

Waymo spent so much time trying to get lidar working that they didn't spend time on camera inference. Their camera inference failed to pick up on the pole even though, objectively, camera sensors can see the pole.

If the scoring system didn't weigh the lidar data higher than the camera inference data, clearly Waymo doesn't trust everything lidar data is giving them. This objective tells us Waymo is having sensor contention issues.

in this case it was FSD. I don't know what to tell you.

Tell me the evidence. Because what the driver said has often been proven to be a lie. We just had one driver kill a woman driving into a house saying FSD did it, despite him pressing on the pedal 100% full throttle.

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

Is Waymo less than perfect? Do you accept Waymos being on the road?

If you answer yes to both, you've contradicted yourself.

It’s not so black and white. Neither are perfect. But waymos are much safer.

That’s why driverless waymos are allowed on the road in many jurisdictions and Tesla FSD only in Texas

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

Tell me the evidence. Because what the driver said has often been proven to be a lie.

In the case under discussion here, it has always been acknowledged as an FSD failure.

You seem to be under the impression that FSD couldn’t possibly make a mistake

 

[I7guy]

In the case under discussion here, it has always been acknowledged as an FSD failure.

You seem to be under the impression that FSD couldn’t possibly make a mistake

Objectively we are under the impression the driving record for recent Tesla fsd updates are very good with driving performance being better than humans. It’s not about some type of self-driving never making a mistake. That’s a straw man.

 

[I7guy]

It’s not so black and white. Neither are perfect. But waymos are much safer.

Citation needed.

That’s why driverless waymos are allowed on the road in many jurisdictions and Tesla FSD only in Texas

Tesla fsd scales much better than Waymo.

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

It’s not about some type of self-driving never making a mistake.

Not a straw man,

The person I was responding to seems to be arguing that an incident which has never been under question as being caused by FSD hasn’t been proven

They have refused to acknowledge any case of FSD being at fault

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

Tesla fsd scales much better than Waymo.

So what. Scaling doesn’t matter if it’s not allowed on the road

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

Citation needed.

Waymos are allowed drivless in multiple jurisdictions while teslas are not because waymos have been deemed safer by those jurisdictions

Also: https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/why-tesla-robotaxis-wont-be-driverless

Reports that waymos are 4.7 x safer than FSD

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

Objectively we are under the impression the driving record for recent Tesla fsd updates are very good with driving performance being better than humans.

Citation needed.

FSD is actually 1.9 x more dangerous than a human driver alone

Why Tesla "Robotaxis" Won't Be Driverless For a Long Time

Deep dive into FSD crash data shows incidents becoming more dangerous for Tesla owners, while Tesla's Austin robotaxis already crash 4x more frequently than human drivers.

bradmunchen.substack.com

 

[I7guy]

Citation needed.

FSD is actually 1.9 x more dangerous than a human driver alone

Why Tesla "Robotaxis" Won't Be Driverless For a Long Time

Deep dive into FSD crash data shows incidents becoming more dangerous for Tesla owners, while Tesla's Austin robotaxis already crash 4x more frequently than human drivers.

bradmunchen.substack.com

Tesla posts updated FSD safety stats as owners surpass 8 billion miles

Tesla shared the milestone as adoption of the system accelerates across several markets.

www.teslarati.com

 

[I7guy]

Waymos are allowed drivless in multiple jurisdictions while teslas are not because waymos have been deemed safer by those jurisdictions

Also: https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/why-tesla-robotaxis-wont-be-driverless

Reports that waymos are 4.7 x safer than FSD

Waymo’s cannot scale period without significant effort. Fsd is already around the world. If Tesla is misrepresenting their data the world will know. There’s an old expression, lies, damn lies and statistics and that may apply to the quoted article.

 

[I7guy]

Not a straw man,

The person I was responding to seems to be arguing that an incident which has never been under question as being caused by FSD hasn’t been proven

They have refused to acknowledge any case of FSD being at fault

No self driving system is perfect as we discussed previously, and as we also discussed each has its positives and negatives.

 

[I7guy]

Waymos are allowed drivless in multiple jurisdictions while teslas are not because waymos have been deemed safer by those jurisdictions

Also: https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/why-tesla-robotaxis-wont-be-driverless

Reports that waymos are 4.7 x safer than FSD

Of course when one bets against Tesla or Apple it never turns out right. In the meantime Tesla has way more miles of data than the competition.

 

[iaynnu]

Citation needed.

FSD is actually 1.9 x more dangerous than a human driver alone

Why Tesla "Robotaxis" Won't Be Driverless For a Long Time

Deep dive into FSD crash data shows incidents becoming more dangerous for Tesla owners, while Tesla's Austin robotaxis already crash 4x more frequently than human drivers.

bradmunchen.substack.com

Also approximately 12% accidents are from distracted driving according to the latest NHTSA report.
This is more dangerous because the human driver chose to do something else rather than focus on driving.

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

Waymo’s cannot scale period without significant effort. Fsd is already around the world. If Tesla is misrepresenting their data the world will know. There’s an old expression, lies, damn lies and statistics and that may apply to the quoted article.

non-sequitur, we aren't talking about scaling

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

No self driving system is perfect as we discussed previously, and as we also discussed each has its positives and negatives.

tell that to the other poster who refuses to acknowledge a signal instance of FSD failure

 

[I7guy]

non-sequitur, we aren't talking about scaling

We are. We’re talking about safety, scaling and issues. (At least that is what I have been talking about these last many posts).

But who knows a little off from rivian dissing CarPlay.

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

We are. We’re talking about safety, scaling and issues. (At least that is what I have been talking about these last many posts).

But who knows a little off from rivian dissing CarPlay.

True. But none of my comments or the comments I’ve replied to are about scaling, only safety. So to reply to any comment I’ve made with “it scales better” is a non-sequitor

It is also, again, irrelevant if it is theoretically more scalable but not allowed on the road

 

[I7guy]

True. But none of my comments or the comments I’ve replied to are about scaling, only safety. So to reply to any comment I’ve made with “it scales better” is a non-sequitor

It is also, again, irrelevant if it is theoretically more scalable but not allowed on the road

Scaling is very important as Tesla, while Tesla cannot snap its fingers and expand its geofence area can get its fsd hopefully autonomous out there faster.

That you ignored my comments on scaling doesn’t make my comment a non-sequitor it means you moved the goal posts. 🙄

 

[Thehangmn]

I didn't post 5 quarters. I gave you last 2 quarters that were compared YoY. when you see an increase Year over Year for two consecutive quarters, that's a clear objective truth the deliveries bottomed out. You said "time will tell if you what you say is real" but time won't change the numbers of the past 2 quarters.

😂. Again no goal posts being moved, you cannot see the future, who knows what the bottom is. Indicators are mixed.

You're now moving the goal post to "confidence".

You’re the one expressing confidence, I’m the one saying that time will tell and it’s too early to say.

Model Y L is hot. Cybertruck AWD sold out until 2027. Cybercab already in production.

Cyber truckout be sold out because they aren’t making any. It’s a dud, admit it.

If the cybercab is in production where is that amazing scaling? None currently on the road?

Your own subjective take doesn't really match the reality of what's going on.

What happened to “the numbers don’t lie?” Cybertruck is a dud and you know it.
Model y is selling well for now.

Is Waymo less than perfect? Do you accept Waymos being on the road?

If you answer yes to both, you've contradicted yourself. "I will make it more clear" is hardly the issue when it's really about the contradiction you made.

I can help someone that is incapable or unwilling to understand.

I'm glad we both agree you are changing what you said earlier.

😂. I am changing my wording so you can understand… and yet you don’t. I’ve never changed my meaning. Just trying to help you get it… but I can’t force you to understand.

Finally.

For the sake of argument only. Cameras were the problem.

Camera sensor did. Inference in the camera *system* didn't.

So the camera inference can’t be trusted

I'll have to repeat what I said for you since you didn't understand. Sensor contention. Lidar system saw it, camera system didn't. System includes inference on the camera sensor.

So the cameras shouldn’t be trusted. Lidar make sure the pole was seen at all.

Waymo spent so much time trying to get lidar working that they didn't spend time on camera inference. Their camera inference failed to pick up on the pole even though, objectively, camera sensors can see the pole.

Conjecture. Maybe camera inference is just not enough, as show by the cybertruck crashing into a pole.

If the scoring system didn't weigh the lidar data higher than the camera inference data, clearly Waymo doesn't trust everything lidar data is giving them. This objective tells us Waymo is having sensor contention issues.

Any Waymo crash must be sensor contention because Elon says right?

And every Tesla crash is because…

Tell me the evidence. Because what the driver said has often been proven to be a lie. We just had one driver kill a woman driving into a house saying FSD did it, despite him pressing on the pedal 100% full throttle.

You can pretend that is the issue of the cybertruck hitting the pole, but that’s a different crash. Cybertruck running FSD crashed into a pole at high speed. Review the thread, I know you were gone for a bit there so maybe you forgot.

If all Waymo crashes are sensor contention issues, and that’s not a solvable problem, then all Tesla crashes prove that cameras aren’t enough.

 

[Thehangmn]

Also approximately 12% accidents are from distracted driving according to the latest NHTSA report.
This is more dangerous because the human driver chose to do something else rather than focus on driving.

Blame the user for not making sure the flawed autonomous system doesn’t crash. I wonder how many more crashes would happen if people didn't intervene to prevent FSD from crashing. Sounds like the number of crashes would be even higher

 

[I7guy]

Blame the user for not making sure the flawed autonomous system doesn’t crash. I wonder how many more crashes would happen if people didn't intervene to prevent FSD from crashing. Sounds like the number of crashes would be even higher

I wonder how many crashes fsd prevented? Or how many were caused by drivers taking control? Sounds like the number would net in fsd’s favor.

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

Scaling is very important as Tesla, while Tesla cannot snap its fingers and expand its geofence area can get its fsd hopefully autonomous out there faster.

That you ignored my comments on scaling doesn’t make my comment a non-sequitor it means you moved the goal posts. 🙄

scalability is irrelevant to the question of which system is actually safer

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

I wonder how many crashes fsd prevented? Or how many were caused by drivers taking control? Sounds like the number would net in fsd’s favor.

citation? if you're just speculating then anyone else's is as good as yours

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

Tell me the evidence. Because what the driver said has often been proven to be a lie.

in this case not one has disputed it was FSD other then you. not even Tesla.

it seems you cannot except the possibility of an FSD failure, which merely weakens all of your points since it implies they are all just built on belief