I7guy
macrumors Westmere
Well yes I trust Tesla. However the point is none of these systems have a squeaky clean record.
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Indeed. As I edited my post to say, They both have a long way to go
no goal posts moved. the facts are that tesla has been down 3 of the last 5 quarters, no clear trajectory for them indicated after one quarter. They've got some intense competition coming to market, I wouldn't bet too big on Tesla crushing it with the stale designs they have. everyone has a model 3 or Y, its gotten to the point where there are like 12 grey model 3s and Ys in every parking lot. They did great... but that kind of saturation is dangerous. the highland and Juniper refresh was noticeable on the interior, but exterior was minor. they still look like eggs. some of the design choices on the interior were odd.. getting rid of the turn signal stalk on the model 3 is going to alienate a lot of those same "needs to have CarPlay" drivers.
I feel that Tesla squandered their lead, rather than releasing more models that would really pull in more customers, they went down the cybertruck and cybertaxi well. I haven't seen anything from tesla that makes me excited. I'm not alone.
I was making a point about safety and redundancy. I will try to make it more clear for you in the future.
I will reword it for you "we should never be satisfied with anything less than perfect". Lidar adds information that cameras cannot infer. so we should not be satisfied with only cameras, especially given that the cost of lidar has come down so much it isn't an issue of sensor cost.
so you agree that tesla should adopt lidar technology? great.
I will yield and give you the point. Now we agree that lidar saw the pole, and the cameras didn't, good thing lidar was there or the pole wouldn't have been assigned a damage score at all. why do you think lidar is bad again?
in this case it was FSD. I don't know what to tell you.
to wrap up the tanget on Autonomous driving systems, my prediction:
Waymo will continue their partnerships with Toyota, Stellantis, Hyundai Daimler and likely bring a few more on board.
note that GEN 6 waymos will be ioniq 5s. so it is only a matter of time for Hyundai offering waymo subscriptions to their customers. others will follow. Waymo will offer some kind of kickback to their oem partners. (some percentage of the subscription) It will no doubt be a huge success.
Tesla currently doesn't have any OEM partners... mostly because they are competitors... Tesla might have found partners in lyft or Uber except they decided to be a competitor to them as well... so they are going it alone. interesting choice, but Elon is a genius right? unless they release more vehicles, I don't see the path to growth.
There are other players in the game, but those are currently the big two. Nvidia, Qualcomm, Rivian, and others will have significant plays in the space. but it's too early to tell which of them (if any) will be successful with their autonomous systems. I tend to believe that there will be others... but waymo will dominate for the near term
Waymo will continue their partnerships with Toyota, Stellantis, Hyundai Daimler and likely bring a few more on board.
note that GEN 6 waymos will be ioniq 5s. so it is only a matter of time for Hyundai offering waymo subscriptions to their customers. others will follow. Waymo will offer some kind of kickback to their oem partners. (some percentage of the subscription) It will no doubt be a huge success.
Tesla currently doesn't have any OEM partners... mostly because they are competitors... Tesla might have found partners in lyft or Uber except they decided to be a competitor to them as well... so they are going it alone. interesting choice, but Elon is a genius right? unless they release more vehicles, I don't see the path to growth.
There are other players in the game, but those are currently the big two. Nvidia, Qualcomm, Rivian, and others will have significant plays in the space. but it's too early to tell which of them (if any) will be successful with their autonomous systems. I tend to believe that there will be others... but waymo will dominate for the near term
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
It’s now two quarters and they just had the best month in history. Downplay it or not, the figures speak for themselves.
Competition is good.
They just had the best quarter delivering 480k vehicles in q2. You’re to your opinion but facts say otherwise.
The above is an opinion and as Tesla showed delivering 489k EVs in a quarter people are buying.
You have your opinions and customers voted with their $$$.
Who is we. I’ll ride in any self driving vehicle that is safe. Tesla has a better opportunity for scaling than the competion.
They should do what they think is best.
It’s tough to argue about how many angels are in the head of a pin. Tech isn’t perfect. Even with redundant systems planes fall, trains crash etc. there will be accidents with self driving cars as well. It’s something we live with in modern society.
on self driving technology they are way ahead. it's not even close. ask a Tesla fsd engineer and they'll tell you that
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
No they aren’t. We can fight it out with “yes they are” and “no the aren’t” and even provide citations supporting our position, but there is no objective answer. It’s folly to say one is better than the other since this tech is addressing two fundamentally different approaches. If you believe Waymo’s system is better, it’s an opinion not a fact.
Source? What month are you claiming was best in history?
Best Q2 but not best quarter ever. Attractive financing, lease and other incentives in various markets helped a lot here. They had been dealing with an excess inventory issue and these incentives helped move stock. Higher gas prices due to the Iran conflict helped too.
It may be an opinion, but it is also the consensus industry opinion. No one other than Tesla enthusiasts would try to claim that Tesla has a better autonomous driving system today.
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
There’s an old expression. It all looks the same on the scorecard. Trying to devine the reasons why the last quarter was hot is a good thought exercise. But it doesn’t matter.
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
As I postulated it’s still an opinion.
No one other than a Tesla asperser would claim that Teslas system is worse.
again, I acknowledge the facts, and they speak, but what they say is mixed at best.
not when you don't have anything new to compete with.
3Q2025 was their best quarter ever, delivering 497k and this was due to the federal incentives expiring. you are referring to their best ever 2Q, delivery numbers are reported, what hasn't been is earnings. so lets wait and see how the profits and earnings look. if they had their best 2Q in terms of delivery but profits are significantly down... the results are mixed.
Acknowledging that people have and are buying tesla, for the time being.
its not just me. we will see how things continue to roll for a car company that is satisfied making 2 models.
my goodness, you have a hard time with this one. if you want tesla to stop making their systems safer because they are "good enough" fine. I believe personally that safety should always be improved. saying "we don't need redundancy" because it's too complicated, is a cop out. Tesla is going this alone. Waymo already has partnerships with Hyundai, Toyota, and more. Tesla can't keep up with scale like that.
best for who? the customer? the CEO? the bottom line?
fully acknowledge, and when a plane crashes, we don't say "aw rats! its just technology no review needed!" we review the data and make improvements to safety systems and protocols. planes have redundancy because of those reviews, you're making my point for me. Airplane safety is as safe as it is because of the safety mindset, redundancy is a huge part of that.
I asked for a source for your statement that Tesla just had its "best month in history." Where in the article you provided does it say/show that?
You seemed to suggest Tesla had the best quarter ever ("They just had the best quarter...") which wasn’t the case. The rest of my comment was just bringing some context to why sales improved, in some markets, after rough periods...just as the article you provided above did. Good or bad sales figures alone can be misleading without some context. Also, unit sales alone don't always tell the full picture.
It might change the debate here if all carmakers were required to offer data privacy and a sandbox. Then they'd have little choice but to give customers meaningful opt-outs from data collection and, of course, the option to use Apple CarPlay or Android Auto, or maybe even a Linux sandbox too. In short, I'd strongly favor any vehicle with sandboxed choices over one with a proprietary OEM system.
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
Ok. Whoops I made a mistake. They were shy by a few thousand. At any rate I’m not suggesting we dont discuss why sales increased, but they are all opinions as to the why.
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
The great thing about earnings calls are we can debate the results and You can ascribe any prediction you want to the results.
It doesn’t matter. Cars were bought.
In your opinion the results are mixed with the model Y being the best selling vehicle on the planet.
👍
They seem to have a lot of confidence in their lineup.
Ditto.
If you want Waymo to be perfect you will be waiting for a loooong time.
That is your opinion. You never have to ride in a robotaxi then.
Tesla has the data. They don’t need the partnerships. And they will scale faster than the competition. Look at their supercharger network.
Yes. Everybody.
And when Waymo has its fleet immobilized protocols are reviewed. When FSD is implicated protocols are reviewed. So what’s your point?
And planes fall to the ground when redundant systems fail. What do you do more redundancy? You’re making my point for me.
Then no planes should ever fall to the ground ? Correct? Pilots will be relieved.
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That would explain your position.
These are the same people that had huge confidence in the cyber truck right?
Yes, although they are the leader in the space, they aren't perfect yet, but I wouldn't apply my argument of disregarding an opportunity to have redundant sources for their data to them... which is where this all came from.
It's an interesting strategy. If you believe Elon, Tesla robotaxi will have “autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.” (2025)
and
In October 2025, Musk proclaimed that Tesla should have “500 Robotaxis” in Austin by the end of the year. In November, he revised the number down to about 60.
and
Musk stated that because the two-seater Cybercab requires entirely new parts and manufacturing steps, early production rates will be "agonizingly slow" before ramping up. maybe they'll get the glue right this time so the stainless steel panels don't fall off while its driving like the truck.
Morgan Stanley estimates that Tesla will have up to 1000 robotaxi vehicles operating in the near future.
We'll have to check back in on this one.
? this is such a strange argument.
If a plane without redundant systems fell from the sky, a review would take place, and if a lack of redundant systems were the cause of the crash, they would blame the system for the crash and regulators would step in to say "you need redundancy"
I don't know how to help you friend. I've continued to explain this one to you but it seems you're really stuck.
We need to remember that waymo has also been running fully autonomous cars commercially for over seven years. and currently have a commercial fleet of over 4000 cars, with a deal to have up to 50,000 on the road by 2028. They also have Toyota, hyundai, stellantis and others on board for offering Waymo driver subscriptions in cars.
Tesla has been promising fully autonomous vehicles were "imminent" for almost twice that, but only introduced their taxi service in 2025. they currently only have 30-50 robotaxis on the road, and analysts only expect 1000 on the road by 2028. Tesla does have a "supervised" version of their software running on the released fleet, which is definitely a flex, but these are not "fully autonomous" as we know.
This isn't a simple who's system is better, this whole thing got started because I stated that Waymo is broadly considered the leader in fully autonomous driving. As many on this thread have pointed out, Facts and numbers don't lie. So it's very clear to me given the above that Waymo is very much the leader in this space, and Tesla is playing catch up. Tesla is a very serious contender, and an innovator in this space, but by the numbers they are not "the leader" at this time.
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
You’re welcome to any narrative on the rearming call, but the numbers are there in black and white.
How did redundant sources help Waymo when their entire fleet was immobilized?
And maybe Waymo will fix their fleet so that redundancy actually is redundant?
Tesla is ramping up, so we’ll see.
It’s no stranger than any other debating point put forth. But yeah ditto we’ve reached the end.
Waymo is doing actual automated driving in many places as a matter of course
Tesla is not
that's the real world
everything seems very black and white to you.
its still running. just not on freeways.
its a fair dig, their software needs a fix. you can bet that they will fix it... and the solution won't be to get rid of sensors. (as tesla has done)
as you say, the numbers don't lie... I think you would say "they are black and white"
except you're not debating the point, you made a ridiculous claim as if it proves a point. it didn't, airplanes are as safe as they are because of the safety systems they employ. if failures occur, we should always analyze the data and see if we can tweak the system and improve it. again... we should not be satisfied with less than perfect. if a plane falls from the sky because of a system failure, thats something we can fix.