Apple has long had history in having their shipped products arrive by the date they specify. I have never had an estimated delivery missed by them. When they sent me the email, it stated 9/23 arrival. Even though UPS started with 9/21, then 9/22, and now black hole.
I also have scanned several social media sites over the last couple of weeks since the opening bell. And so many have immediately started with complaints on pre-order about the delay in their estimated time. I was shocked, not mad, but truly shocked that there were ranges of early october being handed out to people within 5 minutes of preorder. Forget those of us who couldn't get into the damn store to begin with. Think about this..... 12:03AM PST, and you are end of september at BEST. And by 12:05, it's slipping even further. I ordered at :22 after EST, and had a date immediately Oct 5-10. BAM. NEVER seen anything like this. Ordered in the first 30 minutes, and you never stand a chance for launch?
I've read a LOT. Apple likely DID bump their event by a week to gather those Note 7 flammable customers up. But even if they didn't, they completely dropped the ball. These should have started being made a week before launch. They have historical data. Don't anyone kid me. And in case someone says anything about iOS version not being ready, the version that shipped is already marginally different than the version that was released. This is not new.
Now, think about this. We have been scratching our heads on how some BEHIND others in line are getting the phones before them. Apples to apples, spec for spec. There were complaints. Does anyone really believe it's past Apple to say "Listen UPS, I don't care WHAT you do, these no longer come 2 days in advance?" They will field the complaints for being late, according to UPS timelines, because frankly, they are NOT late to Apples date to YOU.
So, let's assume Apple towed the line and put the breaks on this. If you have Sept 23, then you will likely have it Sept 23. On the other side of the coin, I would feel more comfortable if Apple told UPS, "bring them to KY and let them sit THERE". At least I would know my $1000 is stateside, and in secure place with much less third party factors including weather.